WPŁYW KURSU WALUTOWEGO NA DYNAMIKĘ POLSKIEJ WYMIANY TOWAROWEJ Z GŁÓWNYMI PARTNERAMI HANDLOWYMI
THE INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE POLISH GOODS EXCHANGE WITH MAIN COMMERCIAL PARTNERS

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to verify by research the theoretical concepts which explain how the rate of exchange influences the trade turnover. The research is based on Poland and its main trade partners. The theoretical analysis of how the rate of exchange influences the trade turnover was based on the two models of the rate of exchange – monetary and elasticity. The effect of the internal and external business cycle on the export and import were also taken into the consideration. The study concentrates on bilateral turnover between Poland and the Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, USA and Great Britain in the years 1994–2004. Henderson and Hodrick-Prescott filters, the correlation analysis, the regression analysis and Granger causality test were used as the methods of research. The empirical analysis confirms the real rate of exchange is the substantial factor which influences bilateral trade turnover of Poland with its main trade partners. In the case of export the increase of the real rate of exchange is the cause for the Polish export growth measured in dollars and reverse. It means that the quantity effect is stronger than the price effect. In the case of import the increase of the real rate of exchange causes the decrease of the value of the Polish import measured in dollars and reverse. The trade turnover reacts to the change of the real rate of exchange in the same quarter or with a delay of maximum 4 quarters. The changes of the real rate of exchange of the main trade partners usually cause less than proportional changes of the Polish export and import. The research also confirms the business cycle in this country and abroad substantial influence on bilateral trade turnover.

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