Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye’de J Eğrisinin Analizi
Analysis of J Curve for Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Summary/Abstract: From circa 1980 onwards following globalization, there has been structural changes in national economies across the world. Thereafter, countries have begun to adopt outward-oriented industrialization and liberalization policies. Turkey has also been affected by contemporary developments and started to open up to foreign markets. Import substitution policies were abandoned and import quotas have been removed over time. A flexible exchange rate policy has been introduced. An industrialization policy based on openness and export has been adopted subsequent to 1980, which rendered foreign trade ever more significant for Turkish economy. Most studies in the literature-both national and international- on foreign trade emphasize foreign trade balance and changes in real exchange rate. In this study, the nexus between real exchange rate, export price index and import price index are investigated via structural break analysis through quarterly data over the period 1990.Q1-2016.Q2. Firstly, unit root test has been conducted, and the series are stationary after the first differences. Later, Maki Cointegration Analysis has been conducted and a long term cointegration has not been confirmed among the series. The causal relationships among variables were examined through Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. As a result, the evidence indicates the existence unidirectional causality from import price index and export price index to real exchange rates. Additionally, the evidence indicates undirectional causality from import price index to export price index.

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