Objektívne a subjektívne faktory merania investičného rizika

Author(s): Rudolf Sivák
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Ekonomický ústav SAV a Prognostický ústav SAV

Summary/Abstract: Risk can be generally characterized as a stage of uncertainty of an investment, while the result of this investment is known with a certain probability and its quantitative range is defined within a certain probability distribution. From an objective point of view, the risk can be defined as a certain moment of time present in every decision-making process with ineffective information. It is rule that the more these information are ineffective, the higher the risk is. Primarily, the risk can be easily quantified as a ratio of ineffective information to correct decisions. From subjective point of view, the risk can be considered as a certain psychological ability to decide on a base of non-traditional, other factors. According to this point of view, the risk is in psychology characterized as a product of a certain psychological positive stress, which appears as a result of a specific decision-making process. Primarily there are specific factors, like intuition, creativity, secondary there are the basic psychological factors, like knowledge. Generally, two situations on the future investment can be defined: certainty and uncertainty. The base for investing is a decision of an investor on capital allocation in order to maximize the profit while minimize the risk. The investor can decide where to allocate the capital, either to invest in risky assets, or unrisky assets. For the decisions, the investor should know some facts about future situations or their probabilities of happening. There can be four types of decision situations, in which the investor can find himself: Situation in certainty, situation in risk generally, situation in risk specifically, situation in theory of games. In the situation of certainty, there is a complete information system and the investor is able to define exactly, which situation in the future will happen. In situation of risk, the investor can forecast the future situation with a certain rate of probability, while the information system is not complete. The situation, in which the investor cannot assume the probability of the future situation happening, is called a specific situation of risk. If an investor becomes a player and he uses his strategies to decide, the decision-making pro- cess is made on the base of theory of games. In risk (hazard) quantification we come up from the opportunity or an accident, where the variability of return is known with a certain deviation from the expected return. Therefore, the probability distribution and the expected return are the basic factors for risk quantification as variability of an accident measure to its mean value (in the case of normal distribution, the mean is the average). The bigger the variability, the bigger the variance as well as the standard deviation. The main variability rates, and so the main risk quantification risk factors are variance, standard deviation and variance coefficient.

  • Issue Year: 49/2001
  • Issue No: 03
  • Page Range: 559-577
  • Page Count: 19
  • Language: Slovak