FORECASTING OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN POLAND AND ITS REGIONAL COMPONENTS Cover Image

FORECASTING OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN POLAND AND ITS REGIONAL COMPONENTS
FORECASTING OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN POLAND AND ITS REGIONAL COMPONENTS

Author(s): Barbara Batóg
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Keywords: FORECASTING; REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; TRENDS; PANEL DATA MODEL

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents the forecasts for gross domestic product in Poland and its regional components. The forecasts were set down on the basis of the following models: trends, exponential smoothing and panel data models with an object varying constant. In panel data model there was one exogenous variable – employment in the national economy. The data for employment in a given year are known earlier than data for regional GDP in the same year. Therefore the real values of employment could have been used in calculating the forecasts of GDP. All applied models were well fitted but the forecasts calculated on the base of the panel data model had the smallest relative errors.

  • Issue Year: 2011
  • Issue No: 32
  • Page Range: 39-47
  • Page Count: 9
  • Language: English