The Impact of Economic Growth and Environmental Indicators on Carbon Intensity: Evidence from Türkiye
The Impact of Economic Growth and Environmental Indicators on Carbon Intensity: Evidence from Türkiye

Summary/Abstract: This study analyses the short- and long-run effects of economic growth, human development, energy consumption, and environmental taxes on carbon intensity using annual data from Türkiye for the period 1990-2022 within the framework of the ARDL procedure. To assess the robustness of the findings, the long-run coefficients were re-estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators, and the direction of causality was tested using the Toda-Yamamoto causality method. The empirical results show that, in the long term, increases in income raise carbon intensity, while the square of income reduces it. This sign pattern is consistent with an inverted U-shaped relationship and supports the EKC hypothesis for Türkiye. While energy consumption increases carbon intensity, human development and environmental taxes do not produce statistically significant effects in the long run. The coefficients obtained from alternative cointegration estimators are consistent with the ARDL findings, indicating that the results are robust to method sensitivity. The Toda-Yamamoto results reveal a unidirectional causality from economic growth, human development, and environmental taxes to carbon intensity.

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