Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi ile Döviz, Altın ve Faiz Oranları Arasındaki İlişkinin ARDL Yöntemiyle Araştırılması
Investigation of the Relationship between Borsa Istanbul 100 Index and Foreign Exchange, Gold and Interest Rates by ARDL Method

Summary/Abstract: Exchange rates, gold price, Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) policy rate and benchmark interest rate are among the most important determinants in both capital and money markets. Therefore, the relationship between the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST 100), exchange rates, gold price and interest rates is worth investigating. For this purpose, time series consisting of 142 (frequency) monthly observations from 01/05/2013 to 01/02/2025 were constructed for all variables and analysed using ARDL method. As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index, the euro exchange rate and the MB interest rate, and a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate. In the short run, there is a positive relationship between the BIST 100 index and the euro exchange rate, a negative relationship between the BIST 100 index, the gold price and the benchmark interest rate, and according to the estimated error correction model, 13% of the variables will return to equilibrium in the case of a possible imbalance in the variables in equilibrium in the short run.

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