Bankruptcy prediction for the manufacturing sector in V4 countries
Bankruptcy prediction for the manufacturing sector in V4 countries

Summary/Abstract: Research background: Nomenclature of Economic Activities NACE C includes the wide spread of enterprises, such as manufacturers of machinery and equipment, motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers, other transport equipment, etc., which affect many other sectors and imply importance for each economy and common region of countries. Because of this fact, it is important to analyse and predict the direction of corporate finance, focusing on financial health and bankruptcy. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article is to map the level of bankruptcies in the manufacturing sector at Visegrad Group using a specific prediction model. The forecasting of the prosperity of enterprises covers the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic period to identify the consequences of the pandemic. Developments in ratios for profitability, indebtedness, and liquidity, along with indicators of the composition of assets and liabilities, also support this investigation. Methods: The study was realised based on a sample of 12,336 entities for the period 2017–2021. The median values of the selected variables were illustrated individually per country. Then predictions for the sample of Czech, Hungarian, Polish, and Slovak enterprises were run via a model created for conditions in transitive economies. The numbers of bankruptcies were described individually and for the whole region as well. Findings & Value added: The predictions showed that the lowest number of non-prosperous entities was in 2017 and the biggest one in 2020. Thus, it was evidenced that the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the financial health of the manufacturing sector in the analysed region. Academicians may use this methodology and replicate it for other sectors, including services within transition markets. Practical implications serve to remove animosity among enterprises against prediction models because they have proven to be an early and effective tool of prevention during normal and crisis periods.

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