Modelarea econometrică privind relaţiile dintre producția naţională şi mărimea importului de fructe
Econometric modeling on the relations between national production and the size of fruit imports

Summary/Abstract: This study focuses on the interdependence between domestic fruit production and import volumes, within a context marked by market globalization and climate change. The main objective of this research is to assess the extent to which domestic production influences foreign trade flows, testing the hypothesis of a substitution relationship. Furthermore, the research combines a bibliometric analysis of 100 articles from the Scopus database, processed using the VOSviewer software, with econometric modeling of national-level data for the period 1991–2024, using IBM SPSS Statistics. The analysis procedure included the calculation of descriptive statistics, normality tests such as the Shapiro-Wilk test, and the estimation of simple linear regression models as well as log-log models to determine elasticity. Consequently, the main results indicate a weak and statistically insignificant correlation due to the r value of 0.157 and the p value of 0.374, demonstrating that domestic production is not a major determinant of imports. In this regard, the residual analysis confirmed the normality of the errors but flagged issues of autocorrelation, with the Durbin-Watson statistic at 0.121. As a result, the study highlights that import dynamics are influenced more by structural factors, as well as seasonality and consumer preferences, than by domestic supply.

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