India’s Policy Towards Bangladesh in the Context of the China–India Rivalry
India’s Policy Towards Bangladesh in the Context of the China–India Rivalry

Summary/Abstract: This article examines India’s policy towards Bangladesh through the lens of the China–India rivalry and argues that India’s interventionist, hegemonic, and ideologically-shaped foreign policy has contributed to rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. Using a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), the text links India’s support for an autocratic regime, alleged intelligence involvement, trade asymmetry, water disputes, and unequal transit arrangements to growing public dissatisfaction and political backlash in Bangladesh. The article argues that the August 2024 political rupture in Bangladesh accelerated Dhaka’s strategic diversification towards China and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan, which, in turn, heightened India’s security concerns, especially regarding the Northeast and the Siliguri Corridor. It also shows how China has used Bangladesh’s strategic location, infrastructure financing, and port-related cooperation to expand its regional influence, intensifying the broader great-power competition. The central conclusion is that the Bangladesh–India tensions are not isolated disputes but, rather, a self-reinforcing cycle of mistrust and escalation. The article recommends a more balanced, non-interventionist Indian approach based on sovereignty, equitable economic cooperation, fair water-sharing, and mutually beneficial transit arrangements to reduce the risk of further regional instability.

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