Bitcoin-buborékok kialakulása
Formation of Bitcoin bubbles

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the study is to examine and understand the formation of Bitcoin bubbles These bubbles exhibit strong similarity to the shape of the Gartner hype curve, so the relationship between individual bubbles and the hype curve is also discussed. Additionally, we sought to uncover factors contributing to the formation of Bitcoin bubbles. We analyzed the historical data of Bitcoin prices, which reveal the existence of bubbles. To support the existence of bubbles and to identify them with the Gartner hype curve, we calculated the risks and returns associated with different periods of each bubble. We also fitted the hype curve to the Bitcoin exchange rate and examined the correlation between the two. The risks calculated from the standard deviation, as well as the relative standard deviations, also supported the assumption that individual Bitcoin bubbles follow the shape of the Gartner hype curve. And fitting the curves and examining the correlation showed that there is a relationship between hype and exchange rate movements. The role of regulation can be critical in shaping cryptocurrency prices, and regulatory measures implemented in different countries can significantly affect investor confidence and prices, which are also mentioned in the study. The halving of Bitcoin rewards for mining is also an important event that can affect supply and demand, and consequently prices. The imitative behavior, or the tendency of investors to mimic the behavior of others, can also be a significant factor in bubble formation. Finally, the stabilising effect of institutional actors is described. The study reveals that the aforementioned factors have a significant influence on the price of Bitcoin, among which the halving of mining rewards is the most prominent and calculable. While we cannot anticipate new regulations, we can anticipate price changes associated with halving, which is mainly indicated by imitative behavior, as investors seek to maximize their returns. Based on these, the study highlights that it is a very risky form of investment, the forecast of which is a very difficult task.

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