Determinanty inflacji w Polsce w latach 2010-2025 - analiza empiryczna
Determinants of Inflation in Poland (2010-2025): An Empirical Analysis

Summary/Abstract: This paper aims to identify the determinants of inflation in Poland over the 2010-2025 period. Utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, an econometric model was estimated based on variables selected through an extensive literature review and prior empirical studies. The estimation relies on first-differenced annual time series. The results indicate that lagged coal price changes, imports of goods and services, and total government expenditure were significant factors shaping inflation during the analyzed period. The observed positive relationship between coal prices and inflation confirms the strong significance of cost-push factors, particularly those related to the energy commodities market. Simultaneously, the demonstrated impact of imports and government expenditure suggests a significant role for imported inflation mechanisms and demand-pull pressure, indicating a hybrid nature of inflationary processes in Poland. The obtained results point to the need for close coordination of monetary and fiscal policies and the diversification of energy sources to bolster economic resilience against external shocks.

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