The economic rise of BRICS+ and its implications for the global balance of power
The economic rise of BRICS+ and its implications for the global balance of power

Summary/Abstract: This article examines how the 2024-25 enlargement to BRICS+ reshapes the group's weight in the global balance of power. Using World Bank data and original computations, it benchmarks BRICS+ by its shares in world GDP, exports and population, decomposes changes in members' global shares over 2000-2024, and measures internal asymmetries with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The ten-member BRICS+ now accounts for 27.21% of world GDP, 20.49% of exports and 48.07% of population, but around 80% of the increase in BRICS' global GDP share and almost 87% of export gains since 2000 are driven by China, with India a distant second and commodity-oriented members stagnating or losing ground. Enlargement reduces concentration only marginally: HHI values remain well above standard thresholds, indicating that BRICS+ remains a highly China-centred bloc. The results imply that BRICS+' future systemic influence will hinge less on size than on integration quality-deeper intra-bloc trade, interoperable rules, and diversification away from a single growth hub.

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