Expected Utility Analysis of Hypersonic Weapons: Strategy and Effectiveness in the Russia-Ukraine War
Expected Utility Analysis of Hypersonic Weapons: Strategy and Effectiveness in the Russia-Ukraine War

Summary/Abstract: This study applies Expected Utility Theory (EUT) combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate the strategic use of Russian hypersonic weapons in the war in Ukraine. Using open-source data on 255 missile launches, it assesses the KH-47M2 Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon, and Oreshnik systems in terms of target selection, combat effectiveness, and coercive impact. The findings indicate that Kinzhal is primarily associated with interceptor-depletion strategies, Zircon with sustaining an anti-access/area-denial posture in the Black Sea, and Oreshnik with saturation attacks against military targets. Overall, hypersonic systems appear to function more as instruments of strategic coercion than decisive battlefield assets. The study demonstrates the utility of EUT-AHP modelling for analysing emerging technologies, while noting limitations related to data availability and reporting bias.

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