NATO Burden Sharing: A Multidimensional Cluster Analysis
NATO Burden Sharing: A Multidimensional Cluster Analysis

Summary/Abstract: This article investigates NATO burden-sharing as a multidimensional phenomenon that extends beyond defence spending benchmarks. Drawing on the economic theory of alliances, it conceptualises alliance behaviour as shaped by political signalling, defence effort, investment structure, economic capacity, and threat perception. Using Ward’s hierarchical clustering and K-means analysis on 27 NATO member states, the study integrates six indicators, including defence expenditure, equipment investment, GDP per capita, negotiation commitments, and perceived threat from Russia. The results identify distinct behavioural clusters, including a highly committed core, converging contributors, moderate performers, and fiscally constrained states. The findings demonstrate that variation in burden-sharing is not explained by economic capacity alone, but by the interaction of threat salience, political commitment, and spending structure. The study contributes to research on alliance cohesion by showing that effective capability generation depends on the consistency with which political commitments translate into sustained defence investment patterns.

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