Enflasyon Ortamında Türkiye’de Kripto Paralara Olan İlginin Borsa Hacimleri Çerçevesinde Araştırılması
Investigating the Interest in Cryptocurrencies in Türkiye in the Inflationary Environment Within the Framework of Market Volumes

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term and causal relationships between inflation and the trading volume of Bitcoin, the crypto asset with the highest trading volume in Türkiye, one of the countries where cryptocurrency ownership is widespread. In the study using data from the period November 2017 to September 2025, while the inflation rate is considered as the main independent variable, the BIST 100 index, the USD/TRY exchange rate, Brent crude oil prices, gold prices (XAU/TRY), and 10-year government bond yields are included as additional explanatory variables that may influence Bitcoin trading volume. In the study, the ARDL bounds testing approach is used to test the existence of the cointegration relationship, the dynamic ARDL (DARDL) simulation approach is used to analyze the effect of inflation on Bitcoin trading volume, and the Toda-Yamamoto approach is used to examine Granger causality. The findings provide evidence that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables and that the inflation rate positively affects Bitcoin trading volume in the long run, while the BIST 100 index and Brent oil prices negatively affect it. Based on the results, it can be inferred that investors in Türkiye tend to regard Bitcoin—a crypto asset with a limited supply and high market value—as an alternative investment and a hedge against inflation during inflationary periods.

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