Quantile-on-Quantile Connectedness of Commodity Prices and Economic Growth: Evidence From Advanced and Emerging
Quantile-on-Quantile Connectedness of Commodity Prices and Economic Growth: Evidence From Advanced and Emerging

Summary/Abstract: This study investigates the non-linear and time-varying connectedness between global commodity prices and economic growth in the United States, the EU27, China, and India from January 1990 to June 2025. Employing the quantile-on-quantile connectedness (QQ) approach, the analysis assesses spillover effects across various quantiles. The results indicate that, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, industrial production and precious metal prices have exhibited inverse movements in the United States and India. In contrast, in China, increases in precious metal prices are generally associated with higher industrial production, while the EU27 demonstrates a negative relationship. A persistent positive correlation exists between energy prices and industrial production across all economies. Following 2020, food prices and industrial production have moved in parallel, influenced by factors such as pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and shocks in food commodity and fertilizer prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

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