Logica și „lebăda neagră”. Despre „probabilitatea evenimentului improbabil”
Logic and “the Black Swan”. On “the Probability of the Improbable Event”

Summary/Abstract: The article first shows why the black swan is an unforeseen event in human life. Second, it explains how people mistakenly believe that the unforeseen event could have been predicted, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s view. Third, it presents the concept of the counterexample in logic. Fourth, it sets out Bertrand Russell’s principle of induction and his idea of probability from The Problems of Philosophy. This is followed by Taleb’s critique of Russell’s example used to illustrate reasoning based on past experience for predicting the future, accompanied by a few of our own comments and conclusions. Finally, to complete the image, we have also examined the „past-to-future argument.”

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