Прогнозиране на входящите туристически потоци в Прогнозиране на туристическите потоци в България, Северна Македония и Киргизстан и създаване на устойчив и разпознаваем национален туристически бранд
Forecasting of the incoming tourism flows in Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Kyrgyzstan and creating a sustainable and recognizable national tourism brand

Summary/Abstract: The present paper regards the problems of the exponential forecasting of the number of the tourism arrivals between Bulgaria and North Macedonia and in Kyrgyzstan and the creation of a sustainable and recognizable national tourism brand. The tourism flows in Bulgaria in the recent five years are predominantly form the EU countries, UK, the neighbouring countries on the Balkan Peninsula and the Middle East countries, while the Russia and Ukraine are fading away as emitting tourist destinations due to the ongoing war between them. The paper regards the task of creating a forecasting model for the number of the tourism arrivals in Bulgaria, North Macedonia and the Kyrgyz Republic. This task meets with the solving of 5 major problems: (i) Building of an appropriate and reliable data time series; (ii) Determining the time series pattern, or the so-called “forecast profile” and choosing the appropriate forecasting technique and model; (iii) Initializing the parameters of the chosen forecasting technique; (iv) Calculating the forecast values and forecast errors measures; (v) Drawing the respective conclusions. Three major forecasting models were applied by the use of the Holt-Winter methods for multiple and additive cyclicity .

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