АВТОМАТИЗИРАНЕ НА ПРОЦЕСИТЕ ПО ПРОГНОЗИРАНЕ В АНАЛИЗА НА СИГУРНОСТТА ЧРЕЗ ARIMA МОДЕЛИ
AUTOMATION OF THE FORECASTING PROCESSES IN SECURITY ANALYSIS THROUGH ARIMA MODELS

Summary/Abstract: The focus of this article is the need for automation of the forecasting processes due to the constantly increasing security challenges in the European Union. Modern forecasting methods, such as the automated algorithms for identifying ARIMA models significantly support analysis, which is of key importance for decision-making in complex situations. The European Union is an area of high interdependence, which creates conditions for both development and vulnerability, including exposure to terrorist threats. Modern terrorism is characterized by its global scope and its pursuit of maximum impact with strong public resonance. This makes it necessary to thoroughly examine the underlying factors and develop effective countermeasures. Bulgaria, as a member of the international counter‑terrorism community, is also exposed to risks stemming from its geographical location, visa policy, and participation in international operations. Effective risk management, including the management of terrorist risks, requires combining expert knowledge with modern automated analytical tools that support the early detection of threats and the development of adequate security strategies.

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