Konkurencyjność polskiego rynku giełdowego na tle giełd papierów wartościowych krajów członkowskich Unii Europejskiej w latach 2004-2011

Author(s): Michał Michorowski / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

Thanks to free movement of capital on a global scale, the stock exchange became the site of the most important and the biggest investors game, who sentiment and decisions can directly affect the economic processes taking place in different regions. The Polish stock market, which has been an integral part of the global capital market more than 20 years, experienced significant changes in terms of competitiveness, mainly due to the positive image of the Polish economy in the eyes of foreign investors. The article introduces the depth analysis of developments in the stock market of EU member countries in 2004-2011, with particular emphasis on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The analysis was used to characterize the level of competitiveness of the Polish stock market compared with the other in the context of Polish membership in the European Union.

Wykorzystanie indeksów cen mieszkań do oceny zwrotu z inwestycji bezpośrednich na przykładzie wybranego rynku lokalnego

Author(s): Iwona Foryś / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

The long-term, the capital-output ratio, the short liquidity and the reasonable risk are the real estate market characterizes as investment area. One segments of this market are residential property, which without fulfill necessity, are admit as good indispensable to individual everyone exist. The economic development increasing chances to treat flat as investment and participation more of investors. In the article one presents specificity of investing on residential market.

Szacowanie efektywności wybranej strategii inwestowania w produkty strukturyzowane na polskim rynku kapitałowym

Author(s): Monika Hadaś-Dyduch / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

The purpose of this article is to attempt to estimate the rate of return on investments in structured products available on the Polish financial market. In particular, the research in the article is structured deposit which is the primary index of the fixing rate EUR/PLN announced by the NBP. The study used wavelet Daubechies with algorithm "a Trous" and artificial neural networks, integrated into a single algorithm. Basically, the proposed method of predicting structured product index largely based on wavelet transform, wavelet functions are characterized as good localization properties in both the time and frequency.

Analiza finansowa grupy przedsiębiorstw za pomocą wzorcowych układów nierówności

Author(s): Adam Kopiński / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

This paper presents a comparative method based on exemplary model systems of inequality as one of the methods of financial analysis, which is based on examination of the dynamics of profitability ratios (ROA, ROE and ROS) and net profit growth and equity. The aim of the study is to determine whether the systems of inequality have been selected and what are their potential applications in the control and warning systems. The study sample comprises of listed companies in the food industry the Warsaw Stock Exchange and uses data from financial statements for years 2001-2010.

Badanie efektywności informacyjnej w formie słabej na rynku metali szlachetnych

Author(s): Anna Górska,Monika Krawiec / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

Prices of numerous commodities have been growing up in recent years. This increase in commodity prices has attracted investors who can choose between direct and indirect ways of investing in commodities. In the case of direct commodity investments, it may be difficult to provide proper storage conditions. Precious metals are an exception, here. Basic precious metals, investors may invest in, are: gold, silver, platinum and palladium Although gold is considered most important, the aim of the paper is to study efficiency of market of four aforementioned precious metals. The empirical data covers London spot prices in the period from 2009 to 2011. On their base, there were calculated logarithmic returns and then some tests, used to verify weak market efficiency hypothesis, were applied (runs test, variance ratio test, autocorrelation tests). Results obtained (although not homogeneous) con- firmed weak efficiency of precious metals market in the considered period.

Rekomendacje giełdowe a wybrane charakterystyki rekomendowanych spółek analiza z giełdy papierów wartościowych w Warszawie

Author(s): Piotr Buzała / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

Investment analysts are professionals who value companies and based on that recommend specific investment actions towards stock or industry sector. Analysis proved that P/E ratio (based on latest annual consolidated financial statement) as well as 3 month historical rate of return is related to level of analysts' recommendations for WIG20 companies. Analysts recommend to buy (sell) stock with lower (higher) than average P/E ratio and with 3 month historical rate of return lower (higher) than rate of return from overall WIG20.

Spis treści

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

Wykorzystanie symulacji stochastycznej do badania wrażliwości składu optymalnych portfeli akcji

Author(s): Iwona Konarzewska / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

The paper presents the application of stochastic simulation technique in the analysis of sensitivity of optimal weights for chosen portfolio models. Risk is related to several elements of investment decision process: assumptions about joint probability distribution of the rates of return on stock, quality of expected rates of return, risk and correlation estimates, the choice of the optimization model criterion and constraints. The subject of analysis are the optimal stock portfolios for companies being the components of mWIG40 index on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period 2009-2011 - we analyzed weekly rates of return. The simulation study was conducted in the aim of the optimal portfolio structures sensitivity investigation. The following models were taken into account: Markowitz model, the model minimizing conditional loss (CVaR), Telser model and the proposed model minimizing the impact of the correlation matrix first principal component on the portfolio variance. Rates of return were generated with the application of the method which preserves the structure and strength of the interrelationships among the series. The method is based on the correlation matrix eigenvalue decomposition Conducted simulation experiments allow us to recommend the choice of definite portfolio model to investors.

Tytuł

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

Funkcja diagnostyczno-prognostyczna porządkowych modeli logitowych kwartalnej stopy zwrotu dla spółek z sektora budownictwo

Author(s): Katarzyna Wawrzyniak,Barbara Batóg / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

In the previous works the Authors proposed application of ordinal logit models to forecasting the belongingness of the firms noted on Warsaw Stock Exchange to one of the category of rate of return. The dependent variable - rate of return - was transformed into variable measured on ordinal scale (four categories). Four economic-financial ratios (chosen apriori) were explanatory variables. The first aim of this paper was identification of the best set of explanatory variables chosen by means of Hellwig's method, stepwise regression and comparing the quality of different estimated models. The second aim of the paper was analysis of effectiveness of forecasts computed for periods of the boom and the fall in stock market. The quarterly data concerned the firms from Construction Sector noted on Warsaw Stock Exchange. Models were estimated on the base of period 1998-2011 and forecasts were computed for the first quarter of 2012.

Wybrane aspekty przejęć spółek giełdowych w ujęciu teorii gier

Author(s): Anna Sroczyńska-Baron / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

In this work some tools of the theory of games are presented. They are used to analyse the process of taking over one stock company by another. There is shown how the shareholder is able to control his situation with the use of index. Shapley-Shubik's index is characterized and applied on the stock exchange in Germany with data connected with three different companies. There is also a discussion about the limit of obligatory offer.

Wpływ kryzysów na zniekształcenie przestrzeni rynku akcji z indeksu WIG20

Author(s): Małgorzata Just / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

The article investigates the impact of crisis on distortion in the stock market space from the WIG20 index in the period from the end 1999 to the beginning of March 2012 and compares with the distortion in the stock market space from the DJIA index. The distortion of the stock market space was investigated using an index, which is based on geometry technique. This index measures the evolution of the distortion effect in the shape of the market space and it allows for proper identification and interpretation of the most turbulent periods in capital markets.

Koszt pierwszej oferty publicznej na rynku akcji w Polsce w latach 2008-2012

Author(s): Mieczysław Puławski / Language(s): Issue: 63/2013

This article has been devoted to the analysis of the costs of IPO borne by companies - domestic ones in great majority - having their debut on Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) between January 2008 and December 2012. The analysis covered seventy six companies which carried out public subscription for shares and, consequently, introduced them into trading on the WSE. The author pointed to total costs of new issues, relative costs of issues, the average cost of subscription for one share covered by subscription as well as economic costs as the costs of the possible undervaluation of IPO.

Book review: Philip Jenkins, God's Continent: Christianity, Islam, and Europe's Religious Crisis, Oxford University Press, 2007, 352 pages.

Author(s): Natalia Vlas / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

book review

Forecasting the Storm: Power Cycle Theory and Conflict in the Major Power System

Author(s): Dylan Kissane / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

Unpredicted and unpredictable storms have cut a disastrous swathe through coastal communities in recent years. If the international relations system can be imagined as a peaceful coast, then conflict is the storm that wrecks havoc upon those in its path. One goal, then, of those within the discipline who study conflict is to forecast these international storms and, in power cycle theory, there exists a method which is of some utility to this end. This paper re-introduces power cycle theory, explaining its components and methodology before introducing the specific changes to the method that are the result of the author’s research. A strong, positive correlation between conflict and ‘critical points’ on the power cycles of states is established and it is concluded that this reformulated power cycle theory may offer new insights for explaining and predicting conflict.

An International Relations Theory Perspective on Development Aid and Its Role in Shaping the Post-1945 World Order

Author(s): Stefan Cibian / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

In spite of the vivid literature on the practices and economics of foreign aid, international relations theory fails to provide the theoretical/conceptual tools which would allow states to cooperate with other states (bi- or multilaterally) on internal issues. Therefore such practices as foreign aid, or more specifically conditionality, policy recommendations, technical assistance, remain in the ‘grey’ area of international affairs being close to unacceptable or even illegal. The article makes the case for the relevance of IR theory in better understanding development aid and builds up an initial theoretical framework which can facilitate the analysis of foreign aid practices/regime.

On Neo-medievalism, Migration and the Fuzzy Borders of Europe: A Critical View of the Schengen Convention

Author(s): Irina Angelescu / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

After the Cold War, debates surrounding the nature of the European Union became stringent. Explanatory theories presented the EU as either a postmodern, unique project, or as a (federal) state in formation. The present paper will focus on a third alternative: neo-medievalism. Neo-medievalism draws its analogy from the past and refers to “a system of overlapping authority and multiple loyalties, held together by a duality of competing universalistic claims” (Friedrichs 2001, 475). The present paper will make a critical analysis of the Schengen Convention in order to validate the neo-medieval paradigm. The provisions of Schengen illustrate not only the fuzzy nature of the European borders, also the ‘pooled sovereignty’ and core-periphery pattern that characterize the European migration control policy-making, all of which are encoded in the neo-medieval paradigm. The paper argues that the changes brought about by the Treaty of Lisbon come to enhance the neo-medieval characteristics and indicate a need to rethink the nature of the European project.

A Contemporary Concept of Global Governance

Author(s): Yelena Nikolayevna Zabortseva / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

This article examines current academic thinking of the concept of ‘global governance’ and it describes some contemporary trends in the world in the building of an institutional architecture. World civil society has been confronted with the dramatic impact of global threats, including financial, rising oil prices, environmental degradation, civil wars, genocide, human rights’ violations, and the proliferation of nuclear and radiological weapons, as well as weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and, trans-national organized crime. All of these manifestations are buttressed with the complexity of existing international relations, and further supports the need to search for alternative approaches for a system of effective global governance. The necessity to investigate transformation of global governance has prompted the author to refer to ontological transformation of the above-mentioned concepts, and to attempt to connect global trends within the mechanisms of trans-national and national actors

Anthony Giddens, Europe in the Global Age, Cambridge: Polity, 2007, 265 pages.

Author(s): Paul Stephenson / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

book review,

Environmental Security Seen from the European Union. The Case of EU Climate Policy as a Preventive Security Policy

Author(s): Ioana Creitaru / Language(s): Issue: 01 (3)/2008

Climate change is the inconvenient reality of our days. Neither environmental extremism calling for the return to nature nor environmental scepticism preaching the status quo are viable and constructive attitudes. Rather, most policy-makers have embraced a reticent but cautious position. As a result, a global climate change regime has been forming in the last two decades, the most fervent supporter of which is embodied by the European Union. This paper aims to demonstrate that the EU legitimately qualifies as an environmental leader. Furthermore, it inquires into the operational utility and analytical appropriateness of the emerging environmental security concept. Finally, the paper goes on to identify a policy area which would enable the EU to secure extensive influence in world politics: climate policy as a preventive security policy.