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2020 United States of America: Foreign Policy of the New US Administration for Europe, Middle East and Western Balkans

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Joseph Biden (D) is a veteran of the political scene in the United States of America. Over half a century he held senior positions in the American political life starting from the Senate all the way to the position of the US Vice President, for two mandates (2009- 2017). According to still unofficial results, Biden won the American presidential elections, held on 3 November 2020 and will become the 46th US President. After two unsuccessful attempts of candidacy for the US presidential elections in 1988 and 2008, in November 2020, Biden crowned his long journey to the top of the political pyramid with the victory against President Donald Trump (R). Biden's victory, which marks a historical milestone for the US and the world, comes after four years of presidential mandate of Donald Trump, which was filled with political conflicts and confusion.

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2020 Parliamentary elections in Montenegro: Will EU recognize results of elections in Montenegro?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Parliamentary elections in Montenegro are scheduled to take place on 30 August 2020. The electoral roll contains the names of 541,232 eligible voters. The ballots include 12 election lists (six coalitions and six parties). Montenegro has a proportional system in which the entire country is one electoral unit. At the elections the voters shall elect 81 representatives in the Montenegrin Parliament. The election threshold is 3%. Simultaneously with parliamentary elections, local elections will be held in the Kotor, Budva, Andrijevica and Gusinje municipalities.

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2020 Belarus: Belarus between EU imperialism and Russian occupation

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English,Russian

In the Republic of Belarus, presidential elections were held on 9 August 2020. The current President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is the winner of the presidential elections at which he won 80.23% of the votes. The turnout at the elections was 84.23%. However, the opposition candidates expressed their discontent over the results of the elections. Particularly, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who won 10.09% of the votes. Immediately after the closing of the polling stations, citizens started the protests in order to express their discontent over the just held elections and the election results. The opposition went so far in its stances that it alleged that the opposition candidate Tikhanovskaya had won 80%, and Lukashenko only 10% of the votes. Analysts believe that while the just held elections were not ideal, had some shortcomings and could have been conducted in different atmosphere and conditions, an inverse election result is practically impossible bearing in mind the organization of Belarus, its political modus operandi and the sentiments of the electorate.

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2020 Belarus: Wagnerization of Belarus

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English,Russian

In the Republic of Belarus, presidential elections are to take place on 9 August 2020. The elections will take place in a rather tense atmosphere. The developments in Belarus over the past years are a consequence of not just internal political relations in the country, but also significant foreign influence, which has been particularly prominent in the election year. Although the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is in the focus of current happenings, they are a result of much deeper and more complex developments than it may seem at a first glance. Particularly if one is looking at the developments in the country through the prism of relations between President Lukashenko and the opposition and the opposition presidential candidates.

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Ongoing Reforms for Prosperity and a brighter future for Morocco

Author(s): Azzeddine Farhane / Language(s): English

The celebration of the National Day of the Kingdom of Morocco marks the date of the accession of His Majesty King Mohammed VI on 30 th July 1999 to the throne of the Alaouite Monarchy. It is a celebration anchored in the common history of the people and the Kings of Morocco, and which represents a solemn occasion to renew the links of unwavering loyalty of the Moroccan people to the Alaouite dynasty. Morocco celebrates this year, the 21 years of the reign of his Majesty King Mohamed VI, highlighted by an ongoing process, under His leadership and guidance, of continuous reforms and restructuring of Morocco’s political, economic and social fields, for ensuring the prosperity and welfare of Moroccan citizens.

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Parliamentary elections in North Macedonia 2020: Membership in NATO is the Country’s Historic Success

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The early parliamentary elections in the Republic of North Macedonia will be held on 15 July 2020. Based on the system of proportionality, a little less than 1.8 million voters will have the right to vote for the Macedonian parliament (Sobranie), which has 120 seats. The leading parties at the upcoming elections will be the SDSM (the ruling social-democrat party), VMRO-DPMNE (conservative opposition), the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI – ethnic Albanian party in the ruling coalition), the Alliance for Albanians (ASH – ethnic Albanian opposition party), and political parties of ethnic minorities such as Turks, Roma, Bosniaks, Serbs and others, which are traditionally represented in the Macedonian parliament.

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2020 Parliamentary elections in Croatia: Croatia in-between the past and the future

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On the occasion of the 10th (early) parliamentary elections in the Republic of Croatia, since its declaration of independence, which are scheduled to take place on 5 July 2020, the International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) prepared an analysis of the pre-election developments. The last regular parliamentary elections were held on 8 November 2016. Representatives in the Croatian Parliament are elected directly, by secret ballot and application of the proportional system according to which each party or candidate, get a number of parliamentary mandates that is proportionate to the number of votes won. The election threshold is 5%. A total of 140 members of the Parliament will be elected from the territory of the Republic of Croatia, which is divided into 10 geographical electoral districts, which means that 14 representatives are elected from each electoral district. These are the third parliamentary elections at which the preferential voting can be applied. So far, little has been done on promotion of preferential voting.

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Restoring Trust in Global Governance (World on Autopilot – Addendum)

Author(s): Tan Sri Hasmy Agam,Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Further to the points of view undersigned authors expressed nearly two months ago (see: World on Autopilot: The UN Security Council should urgently address Covid19, link: https://www.ifimes.org/en/9791), it is to a deep regret that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) still misses to adopt the much-needed Council Resolution to address the Covid-19 (C-19) pandemic event. This is largely due to the tensions between two of its five permanent members (P5) - the US and China, with Washington wanting to apportion blame or responsibility to China relating to the pandemic, and Beijing rejecting any discussion or reference to it. Additionally, the two keep opposite views on the role and conduct of the UN Specialised Agency for health matters, Geneva-based World Health organisation (WHO).

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Natural Disasters as Detonators of Sociopolitical Change: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2014-2020

Author(s): Nedžad Korajlić,Amer Smailbegović / Language(s): English

The report ifs briefly summarizing the potential of natural disaster to initiate a required social and political change in a divided society, when other methods of integration and resolution have proven ineffective. By comparing the Balkan floods of 2014 with the current COVID-19 pandemic, it is possible to observe certain changes in the posture of the former-Yugoslavian countries and their collaboration by using the last vestiges of once-robust civil-defense (and general national defense / protection) of the former Yugoslavia. The current response is adequate, but the lengthy period of stagnation, decentralization and unresolved issues stemming from the Yugoslav conflict have left considerable present-day challenges. Similarly there were missed opportunities for improving collaboration and crisis management in the aftermath of the 2014 flooding event. The current crisis presents new management opportunities to overcome the problems and evolve the legacy solutions in the time of crisis. The reader is cautioned that this is an evolving situation, and some of the events described within, are bound to change rapidly, hence this communiqué should be considered as a snapshot in time during the pandemic-response in the Western Balkans in the second half of March, 2020.

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Local Election in Kosovo: Independence Accomplished – New Goals Ahead for Kosovo

Author(s): Aljaf Bakhtyar,Zijad Bećirović / Language(s): English

The first local election in Kosovo since the country proclaimed its independence on 17 February 2008 is scheduled for 15 November 2009. Voters in Kosovo will choose mayors and deputies for local assemblies who will run 33 municipalities for the next four years. 74 political parties and citizens’ movements are taking part in the ballot including independent lists and lists of ethnic minority communities. They comprise 35 Kosovo Albanian and 23 Serbian “political entities”. EU special representative in Kosovo Pieter Feith stated that after the election three new municipalities (Gračanica, Klokot and Ranilug) and the enlarged municipality of Novo Brdo would be established, which might further encourage the Serbian minority in their aspirations for decentralisation. According to the peace mediator Martti Ahtisaari’s plan Kosovo should have 38 municipalities. The election will not be held in the municipalities of North Mitrovica and Parteš, which should become new municipalities according to the plan. In the municipalities of Gračanica, Klokot and Ranilug the election process will be the same as in all other municipalities.

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Albania and 2009 Parliamentary Elections: Election Campaign with the Taste of Blood

Author(s): Aljaf Bakhtyar,Zijad Bećirović / Language(s): English

Unlike the beginning of the election campaign when different signals were sent, the final part of the campaign has become r aggressive. The two main protagonists, Sali Berisha (Democratic Party - PD) and Edi Rama (Socialist Party - PS), reduced their duels to the level of personal insults. The tensions led to the assassination of a Democratic Party activist in a village near Kavaja, but the situation was soon put under control in order to avoid further clashes between the two political parties. Despite the political benefits of the assassination for the Democratic Party the reactions were reduced to the level of verbal conflicts which paved the way for potential political radicalisation. Severe verbal conflicts and accusations have marked all public meetings and television debates in recent days, diverting attention from the essential problems present in the Albanian society.

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Albania and 2009 Parliamentary Elections: Socialist Alliance for Integration – The Key to Composing the New Government

Author(s): Aljaf Bakhtyar,Zijad Bećirović / Language(s): English

After the list of candidates for deputies to the new Assembly of the Republic of Albania was published, the election race for the parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 June 2009 started. Political parties launched intensive campaigns by presenting their candidates. This does not exclude the possibility of various tensions, which is quite different from the situation at the last elections which took place four years ago. There will be 45 political parties competing at the parliamentary elections, of which 36 parties are united in four large coalitions. The largest of these four coalitions is ”Alliance for Changes‟ uniting as many as 17 parties and run by the Democratic Party (PD) led by Prime Minister Sali Berisha. The ”Unification for Changes‟ is the second coalition run by the Socialist Party (PS) and headed by Tirana’s Mayor Edi Rama, covering another four parties (G99, Social Democratic Party (PSD), Party for Social Democracy (PDS) and Party of the Greek Minority (PBDNJ)). The third coalition is called ”Socialist Alliance for Integration‟ run by the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) of the former Prime Minister Ilir Meta, and comprising also Petro Koci’s PSV91, the Green Party of Albania, the Movement for Human Rights and Liberties, the Immigration Party and the party called “new tolerance”. The fourth coalition called ”Poli i Lirisë‟ (Freedom Pole) is led by the Christian Democratic Party and unites also the Conservative Party, the Movement for National Development, the Party for Democratic Union, the “Way to Freedom” Party and the Party for Democratic Reforms.

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Albania and 2009 Parliamentary Elections: Socialist Alliance for Integration – The Key to Composing the New Government

Author(s): Aljaf Bakhtyar,Zijad Bećirović / Language(s): English

After the list of candidates for deputies to the new Assembly of the Republic of Albania was published, the election race for the parliamentary elections scheduled for 28 June 2009 started. Political parties launched intensive campaigns by presenting their candidates. This does not exclude the possibility of various tensions, which is quite different from the situation at the last elections which took place four years ago. There will be 45 political parties competing at the parliamentary elections, of which 36 parties are united in four large coalitions. The largest of these four coalitions is “Alliance for Changes” uniting as many as 17 parties and run by the Democratic Party (PD) led by Prime Minister Sali Berisha. The “Unification for Changes” is the second coalition run by the Socialist Party (PS) and headed by Tirana’s Mayor Edi Rama, covering another four parties (G99, Social Democratic Party (PSD), Party for Social Democracy (PDS) and Party of the Greek Minority (PBDNJ)). The third coalition is called “Socialist Alliance for Integration” run by the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) of the former Prime Minister Ilir Meta, and comprising also Petro Koci’s PSV91, the Green Party of Albania, the Movement for Human Rights and Liberties, the Immigration Party and the party called “new tolerance”. The fourth coalition called “Poli i Lirisë” (Freedom Pole) is led by the Christian Democratic Party and unites also the Conservative Party, the Movement for National Development, the Party for Democratic Union, the “Way to Freedom” Party and the Party for Democratic Reforms.

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Local Elections More Important Than Presidential Elections for Albanians

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Macedonia the fifth local and fourth presidential elections will be held on 22 March 2009 since the country proclaimed independence on 8 September 1991. In total 1,792,082 voters will have the right to vote at the elections. A total of seven candidates will run in presidential election, four of them Macedonians, two Albanians and one Albanian woman-candidate. At the local elections, about 370 candidates will fun for 85 mayor positions and about 11,000 candidates will run for some 1,200 functions in municipal assemblies.

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Ured visokog predstavnika i reforma sigurnosnog sektora u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Denis Hadžović / Language(s): Bosnian

U post-ratnom periodu Bosna i Hercegovina je ostvarila značajan napredak u procesu izgradnje mira koji se, između ostalog, ogleda i u uspostavljanju državnih institucija u oblasti sigurnosti. Njihovo osnivanje predstavlja bitan doprinos smanjenu mogućnosti izbijanja ponovnog sukoba u BiH i pomoć na njenom putu integracije u euro-atlanske strukture. Nemjerljiv doprinos ovim ostvarenjima pružila je međunarodna zajednica, prvenstveno djelovanjem kroz Ured visokog predstavnika (OHR) u BiH, ad hoc institucije uspostavljene da nadgleda implementaciju civilnog dijela Dejtonskog mirovnog sporazuma. Zahvaljujući naporima OHR-a i međunarodne zajednice Bosna i Hercegovina provodi jednu od najuspješnijih reformi pravosudnog sistema u regionu i uspostavila je jedinstvene oružane snage, obavještajno sigurnosnu agenciju, graničnu službu, državnu agenciju za istraživanje i zaštitu, carinsku službu i državni sud. Ove institucije uspostavljene su ili zakonima nametnutim direktno od strane OHR-a ili indirektno, uz njegov permanentan pritisak, koji je u krajnjoj instanci vodio do kompromisa među političkim akterima u Bosni i Hercegovini. Imajući ove činjenice u vidu, namjera autora bila je da ovim istraživanjem ponudi svoj skromni doprinos praktičarima i akademskim djelatnicima koji se bave pitanjima izgradnje mira u svijetu. Jedan od primarnih ciljeva ponuđenog istraživanja je da podrži daljnji razvoj ovih procesa, te pruži uvid u iskustvo OHR-a stečeno tokom prvođenja aktivnosti na izgradnji mira u BiH, sa posebnim osvrtom na reformu sigurnosnog sektora. Ovom prilikom želim iskazati posebnu zahvalnost Ženevskom centru za demokratski nadzor oružanih snaga (DCAF) na finansijskoj podršci koja je omogućila realizaciju ovog istraživanja, kao i osoblju Centra za sigurnosne studije, Arminu Kržaliću, Jasminu Ramoviću, Sanji Mihajlović, Lani Tančici i Andrei Teftedariji koja je u tom periodu stažirala u Centru, za njihov nemjerljiv doprinos na izradi ovog istraživanja. Ujedno bih se zahvalio i svima onima koji su na direktan ili indirektan način doprinijeli provođenju istraživanja, bilo putem intervuisanja, bilo putem autorskog rada na literaturi koja je korištena za potrebe istraživanja, kao i biblioteci Centra za obuku za operacije potpore miru u Sarajevu (PSOTC – Peace Support Operations Training Centre). Nadamo se da će predočeno istraživanja, koje ujedno predstavlja i pogled iz perspektive lokalnih aktera, ostvariti svoju svrhu te pružiti doprinos raspravama koje se vode po pitanjima izgradnje mira u svijetu i reformi sigurnosnog sektora u post-konfliktnim društvima.

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Procjena integriteta policije u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Hamza Višća,Alma Kovačević / Language(s): Bosnian

Pitanje integriteta policije u BiH je vrlo teško razmatrati usljed složenosti policijskog sistema. Sektor policije u BiH se sastoji od 16 policijskih agencija na svim nivoima vlasti i 6 institucija koje im pružaju podršku ili obavljaju slične aktivnosti. Ova činjenica otežava svako istraživanje, jer se svaka policijska agencija može smatrati kao pojedinačni subjekat, a istraživanje se može primjeniti posebno za svaku od njih. Općenito, rezultati ovog izveštaja ukazuju na to da niti pravni okvir, niti praksa ne obezbjeđuju osiguravanje integriteta policije. Osim toga, javnost ocjenjuje rad policije kao vrlo slab, a njihove napore u borbi protiv korupcije kao nedovoljne. Veliki uticaj političara na rad policije još uvijek postoji; transparentnost policije nije zadovoljavajuća kada je su pitanju istrage ozbiljnih slučajeva korupcije; upravljanje ljudskim resursima i finansiranje zahtijeva ozbiljne reforme kako bi bile funkcionalnije u borbi protiv korupcije; dok interne i eksterne kontrole zahtjevaju ozbiljne promjene kako bi bile nezavisne i funkcionalne. Ovaj izvještaj može da pomogne razmatranje integriteta policije sa važnih tački gledišta, uključujući pravni okvir i stavove građana. Takođe, izvještaj može da pomogne u sprovođenju sveobuhvatne studije i detaljnije analize svakog poglavlja.

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Zašto parlament ne nadzire Upravu za indirektno oporezivanje BiH?

Author(s): Mirela Hodović / Language(s): Bosnian

Parlamentarni nadzor predstavlja jedan od glavnih postulata demokratskog društva i političkog sistema države. Značaj ovog koncepta ogleda se u primjeni niza instrumenata kojima se nastoji osigurati efikasan parlamentarni nadzor nad institucijama izvršne vlasti. Ovaj vid demokratske kontrole i nadzora, posebno je bitan u oblasti sigurnosnog sektora, kome su u skladu sa odgovarajućim zakonima povjerene specifične nadležnosti. Parlamentarna skupština Bosne i Hercegovine, putem Zajedničke komisije za odbranu i sigurnost provodi parlamentarni nadzor nad 15 institucija sigurnosnog sektora koje djeluju na državnom nivou. Ovo parlamentarno tijelo redovno prati stanje i probleme sa kojima se suočavaju sigurnosni akteri u praksi, te u skladu sa svojim nadležnostima utiče na zakonitost, efikasnost i efektivnost njihovog rada.

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Uncharted Waters: The BRICS Expansion and Implications

Author(s): Ana-Maria Skaricic / Language(s): English

At the 15th BRICS summit in August 2023, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced plans to expand their membership by inviting six nations to join as official members. This move means that when Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, join the bloc with full membership in January 2024, BRICS will represent about 46.5% of the global population and about a third of the global GDP. The expansion will likely aid BRICS’ legitimacy as a representative and inclusive institution. However, it also makes an organisation that has already been criticised for being a varied, miscellaneous collection of member-states, even more heterogeneous, adding new regional dynamics, political governance structures, development stages, and economic specialisations to the mix. The expansion thus has considerable implications for the governance, efficacy, and character of BRICS as an international institution.

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Deepening and Expanding the Scope of the Commission’s Reporting of Developments in the “Functioning of Democratic Institutions” in WB6

Author(s): Strahinja Subotić,Đorđe Dimitrov / Language(s): English

This paper is an integral component of a broader initiative aimed at enhancing the Commission’s assessments within the “Functioning of Democratic Institutions” (FoDI) subarea. It builds upon prior work identifying the inconsistencies present in the Commission’s reporting on the Western Balkans (WB6) while also proposing methods to quantify the findings by cross-analysing the most renowned international democracy indexes. This paper goes further, as its primary objective is to identify and advocate for the introduction and integration of additional essential policy elements into the Commission’s reporting within the FoDI domain. Doing so would result in the deepening and expansion of the Commission’s reporting and assessment scope, thus providing a platform for a more detailed, precise, and realistic evaluation of the state of affairs on the ground. Such a comprehensive and in-depth examination is essential for fostering a deeper understanding of the challenges, strengths, and dynamics of democratic institutions within the assessed region, but also as a contribution towards increasing the overall credibility of the Commission’s reports.

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The Neverending story of senior civil service depoliticisation in Serbia

Author(s): Miloš Đinđić,Milena Lazarević / Language(s): English

Political influence on public administration is as old as administration itself. Given that civil servants are the ones who implement government policies, having control over them means controlling the institutions that execute political power and implement policies. This control also opens opportunities for rewarding loyalists and achieving political interests. When reduced to a minimum, such political manoeuvre is less likely to have a lasting impact on an administration’s functioning, but when it becomes overwhelming, a state apparatus can be completely captured by transient political actors, in the service of interests other than public.

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