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Democracy in Bulgaria: still fragile after 30 years of transition

Author(s): Rumena Filipova,Ruslan Stefanov / Language(s): English

On the 31st anniversary of the beginning of the democratic transition in Bulgaria, the Bulgarians' attitudes towards democracy remain equivocal. In this analysis, based on a special poll carried out by GLOBSEC, Slovakia, CSD highlights the key dimensions of the Bulgarian population's attitudes towards the preferred form of governance, justice, traditional values and trust in the media. One of the key findings is that democratic norms and principles continue to be unconsolidated within Bulgarian society as a greater proportion of Bulgarians favor a 'strongman' model of leadership, unobstructed by elections or parliament, over а liberal democratic system. These results suggest that Bulgaria needs to put special efforts in order to shore off authoritarian tendencies and nurture democratic traditions.

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REPORT. Mid-term Evaluation of Natioanl Development Strategy »MOLDOWA 2020«. Key Findings

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor,Ion Gumene,Alexandru Fală,Ina Coseru,Dumitru Pîntea,Denis Cenuşă,Veronica Sandu,Adrian Ermurachi,Andrei Brighidin / Language(s): English

This document presents the results of the evaluation and analysis of the National Development Strategy (NDS) "Moldova 2020" implementation, which is the main national strategic planning document drafted by the Government and adopted by the Parliament in July 2012 for the period until 2020. In accordance with the provisions of the NDS, the Government, with the support of UN Moldova, initiated the process of evaluation of the implementation of the NDS for the period 2012-2015. The objectives of this assessment included: establishing how NDS fulfilled its function as a central strategic planning document in the field of sectoral policies and budgetary allocations; analysing the impact of NDS in areas of priority policies through predetermined monitoring and evaluation indicators; and identifying the lessons learned. All these activities were undertaken in order to design a new national development strategy "Moldova 2030".

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WHITE BOOK OF GOOD GOVERNANCE. Policy priorities for the next 12 months for the Government of the Republic of Moldova

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The paper represents a short synthesis of the main policies and reforms related to economic, social, justice, foreign policy, security, defence and public administration reform sectors, as well as the implementation of the Association Agreement (AA) and of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU, which are recommended to be implemented by the Government during the next 12 months. These were identified following a number of policy analyses and studies conducted by Expert-Grup, IPRE and LRCM that combine three core principles: (i) urgency of implementation (need to be implemented as soon as possible); (ii) financial and technical feasibility of implementation, and (iii) expected short- and long-term impact.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 128: Turning the Tide: A Policy Agenda for Re-Engaging the Western Balkans.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Over the last twenty years, the countries of Western Balkans have introduced significant democratic reforms and made a considerable shift toward a market economy. The rise of reformist politicians, external support from international partners, and an active civil society have ensured that advanced democratic standards have been adopted, at least nominally, in the works of government. Internal and external factors are converging to make the next few years a critical juncture for the Western Balkans. The momentum towards better governance and economic prosperity is wearing down. A number of urgent policy actions are needed to return the region to the reform track. The following policy action agenda aims to provide detailed high-level policy measures for national stakeholders and international partners that can reignite the region’s reformist momentum. The policy action agenda also draws out a framework for enabling constructive capital and stronger U.S. and European political engagement as meaningful alternatives to Chinese and Russian malign economic and political influence.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 129: The Future of the Western Balkans in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought a new sense of urgency to the question of the Western Balkans’ Euro-Atlantic future. The Western Balkans is facing an uphill struggle in its aspirations to join the European Union. The EU, for its part, is attempting to maintain a hard line on rule of law and democracy standards while keeping the prospect of accession credible. High levels of administrative corruption in the region are compounded by the inability of the judiciary to effectively enforce anticorruption laws. // Labour productivity in the region is low; there is high monopolisation in a number of sectors, regulations are burdensome for business, and taxation policy is erratic. Meanwhile, the deterioration of the media landscape has led to widespread media capture. In turn, this has allowed a proliferation of disinformation and pro-Russian propaganda across the region, spread by both state-owned and private media channels. // The following policy brief presents a concise picture of the long-term socio-economic and democratic challenges that the Western Balkan countries face in a situation of global power competition, malign influence form authoritarian regimes, corruption and state capture, energy poverty and lack of efficient decarbonization policies and investments, brain-drain and aging population. It also provides an initial list of measures needed to counter these barriers to the region’s development, which could be implemented with the support of the EU and international community, policy-makers and donors

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CSD Policy Brief №. 131: Building Institutional Capacity Framework for Resilience to Disinformation in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

With the start of its war of aggression in Ukraine, the Kremlin has intensified its disinformation and political interference campaigns across Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern Europe. Using instruments of state capture, specifically focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance and banking, telecommunications, defence, and media, the Kremlin exploits and reinforces existing government vulnerabilities in these countries, in order to erode their governments’ Euro-Atlantic positions and public trust in democratic institutions and European policies and values. // The countries of CEE are particularly vulnerable to this threat, as some of them demonstrate alarmingly high levels of cognitive capture among the general population, political elites, and the media, swaying public opinion towards Russia and its authoritarian model. // Efforts to counter pro-Kremlin disinformation must extend beyond information operations and strategic communication to expose state and media capture across the region, and to develop and effectively implement new and enhanced institutional and regulatory frameworks that will decouple countries’ governance systems from Kremlin interests. To do it, Bulgaria must urgently develop a comprehensive legislative framework for the effective implementation of EU and international sanctions. // The following policy brief presents a concise picture of the short- and long-term governance challenges to the development of national counter-disinformation capacity, building upon the existing initiatives currently led by civil society, media, and the private sector.

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Политически брифинг № 142 на CSD: СКРИНИНГ НА ИНВЕСТИЦИИТЕ ЗА ПОВИШАВАНЕ НА ИКОНОМИЧЕСКАТА СИГУРНОСТ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

The concept of economic security has rapidly grown in popularity in recent years, with the rise of global geopolitical competition, and in particular with Russia’s weaponization of its oil and gas supplies to Europe to aid its war of aggression against Ukraine. Based on these concerns and taking inspiration from its Member States, the EU refocused its efforts from developing a common set of coordination instruments, such as investment screening, sanctions and anti-money laundering, to setting out a strategy on economic security based on three main policy strands – promoting competitiveness, protecting ourselves and partnering with others. // In Bulgaria, persistent rule of law deficits, low policy and administrative capacity, capital scarcity, and low investment attractiveness compounded by a tradition of unchecked investments from authoritarian regimes and offshore havens have led to the country becoming one of Europe’s most vulnerable economies to malign foreign influence and corrosive capital inflows. Although the government has recently taken steps to implement the EU’s FDI Screening Regulation and a draft law for introducing a national screening mechanism is pending second reading in parliament, the country still remains one of the two EU Member States without such a mechanism and institutional practice in place. Beside speeding up the process of introducing the screening mechanism, Bulgaria urgently needs to reassess its economic security policy and adopt a national economic security strategy with concrete measures to identify and mitigate potential risks, a clear definition of responsible authorities and their tasks, and designation of a focal point to coordinate their activities.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 150: Supporting Media Freedom in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Europe’s news industry faces significant challenges. The shift to online platforms has disrupted traditional business models, creating “news deserts.” Declining distribution and advertising revenues, alongside sector financialization, have left outlets vulnerable to external pressures. The European Commission could strengthen media resilience by combining public funding with targeted private investments, leveraging its experience with blended finance tools. Addressing legislative and regulatory gaps to improve the effectiveness of media and democracy promotion measures is crucial. Engaging Big Tech through mechanisms like a bargaining code or tax would help fund media freedom efforts. Additionally, increased financial support for tech transitions in the media sector and structural reforms within institutions, such as the European Board for Media Services, would reinforce media sustainability. Collaborating with civil society and international partners could further enhance media freedom and sustainability.

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Ukrajina 2005-2006: Impérium vrací úder

Author(s): Luboš Veselý / Language(s): Czech

At the time of the creation of the first version of this post, the colon in the title was followed by a postscript twice into the same river, and it was supposed to be primarily about thinking about how, after all the mistakes made by the forces of the Orange Revolution, it would be possible to create a new Orange government and try to repair that history does not allow so often. However, the "rollover" of the oranges did not end even in the most critical moments, and the result is what it is. A year and a half after the Orange Revolution, the forces that were defeated at the end of 2004 and in whose perspective few believed in the future again claimed power. This did not happen on the basis of some radical change in the nature of these forces that were associated with the former Kuchma regime, but almost exclusively this rebirth of Viktor Yanukovych, the Party of Regions (SRU) and all that is connected with them participated in the policies they pursued the oranges at the time they gained power.

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Cesta Hugo Cháveze k moci

Author(s): Dalibor Bartoš / Language(s): Czech

The outlook for the Venezuelan opposition is poor, as it is unable to unite itself. It is losing one election after another and currently does not have a single lever to push its demands in the country's political system. Chávez's popularity derives from the contentment of the Venezuelan poor, especially in Caracas, which the left-wing populist provides with money from oil sales. Only long-term lower oil prices on world markets can break Chávez's neck. Which is utopia. Rather, he will pay for the fact that he does not invest in the modernization of oil facilities, which are already dilapidated today. As oil production declines, so will the volume of finance for the expanding concept of democratic socialism.

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Lesk a bída ukrajinské opozice

Author(s): Martin Laryš / Language(s): Czech

The international community is warily watching the rule of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, which many representatives of the West perceive as a continuing retreat from unconsolidated democracy and a return to the semi-authoritarian regime that prevailed in Ukraine during the tenure of President Leonid Kuchma (1994-2004). These concerns are fueled, among others, by the trials of opposition leaders, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, who were sentenced to several years in prison and are considered political prisoners of the Yanukovych regime. His negative perception is also underlined by the planned changes to the electoral system.

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EU a Maghreb po arabském jaru: reset evropské politiky?

Author(s): Jiří Holík / Language(s): Czech

The wave of protests that swept the Arab world in 2001 caught European statesmen off guard. When the European Union finally understood the historical significance of the whole process, it reacted as it does best, launching a flood of declarations and new policy documents. On 8 March 2011, the brand new Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean was launched, followed by another review of the European Neighborhood Policy in May. Some of the European representatives even questioned their conscience and confessed to the mistakes of the past. Today, after more than a year, it is being decided whether the EU will be willing to learn from its past mistakes. She promised her neighborhood more money, increased labor and general human mobility, as well as better access to its own markets. However, the Union still has a long way to go before it manages to regain lost credit in relation to the Maghreb.

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POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-04

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte,Dumitru Minzarari / Language(s): English

CONTENT: Monitoring an emerging democracy in Moldova: a difficult task (by Ion Marandici) // Moldova and European Union: Any Way Closer? (Sergiu Panainte) // The Moscow’s smoke screen has once again fooled Moldovan leadership (by Dumitru Mînzărari)

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POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-05

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte,Dumitru Minzarari / Language(s): English

CONTENT: Stable and Changing Parties in Moldova (Ion Marandici) // A New Impetus to Moldova’s European Hopes: Bridging the Gap? (by Sergiu Panainte) // The new Transnistria initiatives of President Voronin: Breakthrough or Agony? (by Dumitru Mînzărari)

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POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-06

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte / Language(s): English

CONTENT: Voters trust opposition parties, but would not vote for them (by Ion Marandici) // Battleground Moldova: Soft Power vs. Hard Power (by Sergiu Panainte) // What are the main threats to Moldova’s security? (by Ion Marandici)

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POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH - № 2007-07

Author(s): Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte / Language(s): English

CONTENT: The result of the 2007 elections: local public administration versus central authorities (by Ion Marandici) // A Retrospective of the 2007: Transition continues as Moldova misses valuable Opportunities” (by Sergiu Panainte) // Major threats to the security of Republic of Moldova: 2007 (by Ion Marandici)

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Режим Путіна: Перезавантаження-2018

Author(s): Maksym Rozumnyi,I. V. Valyushko,D. M. Gorelov,V. S. Karavaev,A. V. Lepikhov,I. A. Pavlenko / Language(s): Ukrainian

The end of 2017 - the beginning of 2018 passed quite predictably for Russia. The preparation for the presidential elections left a minimum of space for experiments and innovations in domestic and foreign policy. The regime quite consciously implemented an inertial scenario of preserving power, along the way only taking measures to avoid dangers and risks of destabilization. It can be said that during this period, the main security mechanisms were refined and established, thanks to which the current level of control of the situation in the country by the Kremlin was previously achieved and will continue to be maintained.

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EVALUATION of the DRAFT ACTION PLAN Partnership for Open Government Initiative 2016-2017

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Republic of Serbia's process of accession to the Partnership for Open Government - a multilateral initiative that aims to provide support to governments in areas such as transparency, cooperation with civil society, the fight against corruption and the use of new technologies in order to provide high quality services to citizens and business subjects - began in April 2013, after the intention to do so expressed even earlier, in March 2012 by the Ministry of culture, media and information society. The first action plan for the period 2014-2015 has been evaluated both by the relevant ministry, as well as by civil society organizations that were involved in its monitoring. The Government of the Republic of Serbia at the session held on 25 December 2014, on a proposal of the Ministry of State Administration and Local Government, the conclusion No 05. 021-16514 / 2014, adopted an action plan in order to implement the initiative for Open Government Partnership in the Republic of Serbia for 2014 and 2015, as the period of implementation of the Action Plan is determined by the period from 30th of June 2014 to 30th of June 2016. However, this process of adopting the second Action Plan was not a specific one because representatives of civil society involved in the process were present only during the developed of Draft Action Plan. These objections were put forward when the organizations were submitting comments on the draft Action Plan, and the problem has been recognized by the Independent Research Mechanism. Another major violation of the Open Government Partnership represents the non-inclusion of civil society in the implementation of the second Action Plan.

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Survey Results University Students from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovakia

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The surveys were undertaken at seven universities located in five countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia (Belgrade, Novi Sad), and Slovakia (Bratislava, Banská Bystrica).• In April 2019 1714 students were polled.Surveys are part of a University Students Debates‟ project aimed at promoting democratic values among youth. The project is implemented jointly by MESA10 (Slovakia) and CEAS (Serbia) and supported by the National Endowment for Democracy.Debates among seven university teams took placeon April 8, 2019.If not indicated differently, the following results are from two rounds of surveys- in November 2018 and April 2019.

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Vilify and Amplify

Author(s): / Language(s): English

From Serbian and Russian trolls factoriesto pro Serbian and Russian governments mainstream media. Defamation and intimidation campaignagainst CEAS and it’s director Jelena Milic.The Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS) from Belgrade has dealt with inaccurate or malicious reportingand commenting on our work in Serbian public space ever since its founding in 2007. This is notsurprising given that we deal with extremely sensitive issues, such as the causes and consequences ofNATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; the murder of soldiers in Topčider and Leskovac;advocating Serbia’s membership in NATO; advocating prosecution of war crimes before domestic courtsand conducting other mechanisms of transitional justice, emphasizing the obligation and importanceof cooperation with the ICTY; encouraging normalization of relations with Kosovo and regional cooperation;comprehensive reform of the security system and its placement under democratic control.

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