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LNG Developing Rapidly in the Baltic Sea Region

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

In the Baltic Sea region, the liquefied natural gas market has developed dynamically and new methods of LNG transport and use stimulate infrastructure investments. Poland will compete on this market with other regional gas-importing countries and with Russia, which is developing its own LNG potential. Once the LNG terminal expansion in Poland is complete, additional volumes of natural gas can be sold to new clients needing small-scale LNG supplies and in the transport sector.

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Negotiations between the European Commission and Russia on Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The European Commission has proposed that the legal status of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be settled with an agreement between Russia and the European Union, negotiated by the EC on behalf of the Member States. Support for the proposal should be conditional on the agreement confirming, without exception, the application of EU energy law to the entire pipeline. The consequence of such a position may also entail the opening of discussions on the status of Nord Stream 1.

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European Commission Gives Go-Ahead to Hungary’s Nuclear Power Plant Expansion

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

The European Commission has given a green light to planned work on the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. This means Russian state-owned company Rosatom can carry out the project in which it was directly awarded the construction of two new reactors. The circumstances behind the signing of the agreement, part of which is classified, may indicate the existence of broader energy arrangements between Hungary and Russia and could translate into their further strengthening political cooperation. The EC’s decision approving this use of state aid also contains guidelines Poland may use for future nuclear projects.

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Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.

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“Polish Energy Policy by 2050” in light of the EU’s Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy

Author(s): Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

The new global climate agreement struck in Paris at the end of 2015 recommends its signatories to formulate long-term greenhouse gas emission development strategies by 2020. In March 2016 the European Commission outlined a plan to start preparations of the EU’s low-carbon development strategy. The Commission’s recommendation was welcomed by the European Council. Furthermore, several EU Member States are currently developing their own long-term climate and energy scenarios. In this context Poland also should start to develop its own long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy. Ongoing work on the long-term energy scenario Polish Energy Policy by 2050, which should take into account both the EU’s and EU Member States’ climate policies, offers a good opportunity to do so.

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Russia’s Ambitions in Europe’s Nuclear Energy Sector: A Test of Credibility

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

For Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, exemplary cooperation with EU countries is crucial. Because the EU’s nuclear sector is well-structured, the use of Rosatom to influence the bloc geopolitically is limited, and thus its presence on the prestigious EU market primarily serves to construct a positive image of the company. EU Member States should ensure that the nuclear relationship with Russia is also characterised by reciprocity.

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№33: How to Fix the European Shale Gas Debate? Lessons Learned from Public Consultations on Unconventional Fossil Fuels

Author(s): Agata Gostyńska,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

The European shale gas debate is out of balance, making it increasingly difficult to conduct an across the board, fact-based assessment of the pros and cons of tapping into unconventional hydrocarbon deposits. EU Member States are divided in their approaches to the issue. Their attitudes range from an almost unchecked enthusiasm to deep wariness towards the shale gas industry. In addition, the European public has recently shown it is locked between the demands for more information about the specifics of shale gas development, and a static, often outdated image of the industry. EU institutions to date have largely either aggravated this polarisation or have failed to introduce solutions that would make the debate less toxic. However, as the authors of the paper argue, the European Commission could become a lynchpin in making the most of the ongoing efforts of the EU Member States and creating robust lines of communication with industry stakeholders.

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Między Bonn a Katowicami – wyzwania globalnych negocjacji klimatycznych

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Szczyt klimatyczny w Bonn (COP23) w listopadzie 2017 r. miał przybliżyć rozstrzygnięcia w sprawie zasad monitorowania krajowych działań na rzecz ochrony klimatu. Powszechność tych działań, czyli objęcie nimi zarówno państw rozwiniętych, jak i rozwijających się, jest podstawą porozumienia paryskiego. W Bonn jednak ponownie zarysowały się podziały między tymi blokami, co utrudnia zawarcie kompromisu. Jego osiągnięcie będzie priorytetem Polski jako gospodarza kolejnego szczytu klimatycznego (COP24), w grudniu 2018 r. w Katowicach.

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Australia na globalnym rynku gazu skroplonego

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): Polish

Korzystne położenie geograficzne i zliberalizowany handel surowcami energetycznymi sprawiają, że Australia z powodzeniem konkuruje o najbardziej lukratywne i perspektywiczne rynki dostaw gazu skroplonego (LNG). Do końca dekady będzie jego największym eksporterem. Tamtejsza branża musi jednak stawić czoła wyzwaniom związanym z dostępnością odpowiedniej ilości gazu na eksport. Z punktu widzenia importerów LNG, w tym Polski, powodzenie tych starań doprowadzi do wzmocnienia sprzyjających tendencji rynkowych.

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Elektroenergetyka – kolejny cel państw bałtyckich w uniezależnianiu się od Rosji

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): Polish

Litwa, Łotwa i Estonia, chcąc ograniczyć zależność od Rosji, dążą przy wsparciu Komisji Europejskiej do synchronizacji z systemem europejskich sieci elektroenergetycznych. Osiągnięty kompromis dotyczący połączenia przez Polskę nie precyzuje jednak szczegółów technicznych. W tej sprawie państwa bałtyckie nie są jednomyślne. Dalsze wsparcie dla integracji w sektorze energii leży w interesie Polski, ale powinno być uwarunkowane zgodnością trzech państw oraz zapewnieniem finansowania z Unii Europejskiej.

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The Collapse of Oil Prices: Economic and Political Implications

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Together with the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic slowdown caused by the restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the demand for oil has fallen, followed by prices. These drops were further fuelled by the collapse of the OPEC+ summit, which was to limit output and increase prices, and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Russia for market share. As a result, oil prices have fallen to record lows, which together with oversupply and the expected global recession, will pose a serious challenge for the biggest producers and countries dependent on oil export revenue.

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Załamanie cen ropy naftowej – konsekwencje gospodarcze i polityczne

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

Wraz z pandemią COVID-19 i związanym z nią spowolnieniem gospodarczym zmniejszył się popyt na ropę naftową i jej ceny. Ich spadek pogłębiło zerwanie porozumienia OPEC+, mającego stabilizować rynek, oraz rywalizacja Arabii Saudyjskiej i Rosji o udziały w tym rynku. W efekcie ceny ropy spadły do rekordowo niskich poziomów, co – obok nadpodaży surowca i kryzysu gospodarczego – będzie poważnym wyzwaniem dla największych producentów oraz państw uzależnionych od eksportu ropy.

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The Energy Crisis in France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The global energy crisis has highlighted the weakness in the French energy sector. The nuclear branch, which was supposed to ensure the state’s independence, is struggling with technological problems, the state-owned EDF group is heavily indebted, and production from renewables remains below expectations. The initial government reaction has been aimed at preventing an uncontrolled increase in fuel and energy prices. Now, doubts have been raised about the French president’s ambitious plan for the structural recovery of the energy sector, presented on 10 February, over its financial and technical feasibility.

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Russia’s Use of Gas Blackmail Against the EU

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Russia has cut gas supplies to the EU to force concessions on the status of Donbas and the security architecture in Europe, leading to a deeper energy crisis in the EU. If these supplies are stopped, which is unlikely, LNG imports probably would be insufficient to meet the demand. With Germany halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline, Russia is likely to keep supply level slow, risking a more serious energy crisis in winter 2022/23 due to difficulties in building up sufficient gas stocks over the summer.

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The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU’s Arab Neighbourhood

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short-term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.

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New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.

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Prospects for the Diversification of Natural Gas and Oil Supply Sources to Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Hungarian government opposes the imposition of EU sanctions on the import of energy resources - especially gas - from Russia. The authorities explain this decision with Hungary’s high level of dependence on these resources and lack of alternative sources that are not more expensive. In fact, this stance is a consequence of Hungary’s long-standing policy towards Russia of closer political relations and energy cooperation since 2010, and the related lack of investment in the diversification of energy sources. Even if there is political will, which the authorities have not shown so far, it will be difficult for Hungary to free itself from Russian gas in the short term. The possibilities of giving up Russian oil are higher, but Hungary is unlikely to support an embargo on it this year.

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Biogases: An Element of EU Energy Security

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The development of European biogas is one way to make the EU independent of Russian gas supplies. It also would make a significant contribution to the implementation of the ideas underpinning the European Green Deal, including the energy transition and circular economy. The current limitations on the growth of this sector, such as financing issues, have become less important in the face of the consequences of the war in Ukraine. From Poland’s perspective, it is important to maximise the benefits for Polish businesses when developing the EU’s biogas potential.

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The EU’s Difficulties with Increasing Gas Imports from Arab States

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In mid-June, the EU signed an agreement with Egypt and Israel as part of an effort to increase gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa. However, among the obstacles to replacing Russian supplies with gas from this region are the limited infrastructure and the high demands of exporting countries. To increase the chances of success in this area, the EU may propose to combine gas purchase contracts with investments in the development of local renewable energy sources and new technologies.

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States Seek Treaty on Plastic Pollution

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.

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