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A GENERALIZED EXPONENTIAL TYPE ESTIMATOR OF POPULATION MEAN IN THE PRESENCE OF NON-RESPONSE

Author(s): Siraj Muneer,Javid Shabbir,Alamgir Khalil / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2018

In this article, we propose a class of generalized exponential type estimators to estimate the finite population mean by using two auxiliary variables under non-response in simple random sampling. The proposed estimator under non-response in different situations has been studied and gives minimum mean square error as compared to all other considered estimators. Usual exponential ratio type estimator, exponential product type estimator and many more estimators are also identified from the proposed estimator. We use three real data sets to obtain the efficiencies of estimators.

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A GENERALIZED RANDOMIZED RESPONSE MODEL

Author(s): Housila P. Singh,Gorey Swarangi M. / Language(s): English / Issue: 4/2017

In this paper we have suggested a generalized version of the Gjestvang and Singh (2006) model and have studied its properties. We have shown that the randomized response models due to Warner (1965), Mangat and Singh (1990), Mangat (1994) and Gjestvang and Singh (2006) are members of the proposed RR model. The conditions are obtained in which the suggested RR model is more efficient than the Warner (1965) model, Mangat and Singh (1990) model and Mangat (1994) model and Gjestvang and Singh (2006) model. A numerical illustration is given in support of the present study.

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A Japanese Zaibatsu in the Balkans: Intermediate Structures of Sociability as Growth Engines of Bulgarian Economic Modernization

Author(s): Martin Ivanov / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

When drafting my research proposal nearly a year ago, I had decided to put the stress on the factors that drive, in my humble opinion, Bulgarian economic and social development during the Interwar period. In that research proposal I was contesting the conventional wisdom of correlating Bulgarian economic development to just a few key factors, the state and the investment banks (Gerschenkron, 1966). Moreover, it was my belief that other social structures had so far been omitted in the yet sluggish debate on Bulgaria’s effort towards modernization. Via my research I intended to insert other variables in the equation which Fukuyama (1995) calls ‘intermediate structures of sociability’ – the large corporations, the different forms of social activism and the political parties.

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A KEYNESIAN APPROACH TO FISCAL POLICY FOR FULL EMPLOYMENT AND CONTINUOUS TIME DEBT DYNAMICS

Author(s): Yasuhito Tanaka / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2020

It is widely argued that public debt is a burden on the future generations. We analyze another aspect of public debt as an economic stimulus program, that is, the measure to realize full employment from an under-employment state. Using a continuous time version of a dynamic analysis of debt-to-GDP ratio we show that a fiscal policy to realize full employment from a state of under-employment can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. More precisely we show that the larger the extra growth rate (increasing rate) of real GDP by a fiscal policy is, the smaller the debt-to-GDP ratio at the time when full employment is realized is. Also we show that even if the marginal propensity to consume is very small (including zero), an aggressive fiscal policy can realize full employment without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Further, we consider a condition to realize full employment from a state of under-employment within one year without increasing debt-to-GDP ratio.

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A mai pénzügyi rendszer kritikája és reformlehetőségei

Author(s): Sára Lafferton,Gábor Horváth / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 27/2020

In this paper we try to briefly analyse the main working principles and the social consequences of the financial system. In the second part of our article we describe several alternative solutions to the current system: in our opinion, some of these could help and enable the work of establishing a democratic and solidarity economy.

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A Modelling System for Numerical Weather Prediction in the Bulgarian Antarctic Base Area

Author(s): Boriana Chtirkova,Elisaveta Peneva,Gergana Georgieva / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The weather forecast of good quality is essential for the humans living and operating in the Bulgarian Antarctic Base (BAB), located on the Livingstone Island coast at 62.64⁰ S and 60.36⁰ W. The numerical weather prediction models in southern high latitude regions still need improvement as the user community is limited, little test cases are documented and validation data are scarce. The modelling system is based on the WRF model, configured in three nested domains down to 1 km horizontal resolution, centered over BAB. The main objective of the study is to configure and validate the WRF model and to recommend certain set-up parameters like model area coverage, topography, land use, vertical levels, physics parametrization schemes, preparation of initial and boundary conditions and run configuration on HPC machines. Three test periods of “bad” weather events are considered during the summer seasons in 2016, 2017 and 2020. The ability of the 3 days forecast to capture the basic meteorological events in this period is discussed. Sensitivity experiments to the land use type are conducted and while the MODIS land data is found to be the most accurate for the region, a slight increase in the soil thermal capacity results in better model performance.

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A MULTIDIMENSIONAL AND DYNAMISED CLASSIFICATION OF POLISH PROVINCES BASED ON SELECTED FEATURES OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN 2002–2013

Author(s): Wojciech Łukaszonek / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2017

For close to two decades after the fall of communism in 1989, Polish higher education enjoyed an unprecedented period of development. Favourable political, economic, social and demographic changes led to a fivefold increase in the number of students and the number of higher educational institutions. The dynamic changes and their effects did not occur uniformly, in either space or time. An attempt is made here to identify and analyse the regional differentiation between Polish provinces in terms of features relating to higher education. To investigate the changes in higher education in the period of economic and social transformation, observations were made of fundamental characteristics of higher education in the years 2002–2013. The applied procedure uses new statistical methods applicable to a space of doubly multivariate data. The covariance matrix used to construct principal components is given the structure of a Kronecker product. The results led to the identification of six groups of provinces, including two consisting of a single province – Mazowieckie and Małopolskie provinces – which contain the largest and the highest-ranked2 higher educational institutions in Poland: the University of Warsaw and Jagiellonian University.

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A NEW ESTIMATOR OF MEAN USING DOUBLE SAMPLING

Author(s): Vadlamudi Kalyan Rao,Sedory Stephen A.,Singh Sarjinder / Language(s): English / Issue: 4/2017

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimation of population mean of a study variable by making use of first-phase sample mean and first-phase sample median of the auxiliary variable at the estimation stage. The proposed new estimator of the population mean is compared to the sample mean estimator, ratio estimator and the difference type estimator for the fixed cost of the survey by using the concept of two-phase sampling. The magnitude of the relative efficiency of the proposed new estimator has been investigated through simulation study.

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A NEW METHOD FOR COVARIATE SELECTION IN COX MODEL

Author(s): Nader Ebrahimi,Ujjwal Das / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2018

In a wide spectrum of natural and social sciences, very often one encounters a large number of predictors for time to event data. An important task is to select right ones, and thereafter carry out the analysis. The l1 penalized regression, known as “least absolute shrinkage and selection operator" (LASSO) became a popular approach for predictor selection in last two decades. The LASSO regression involves a penalizing parameter (commonly denoted by l) which controls the extent of penalty and hence plays a crucial role in identifying the right covariates. In this paper we propose an information theory-based method to determine the value of l in association with the Cox proportional hazards model. Furthermore, an efficient algorithm is discussed in the same context. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method through an extensive simulation study. We compare the performance of our proposal with existing methods. Finally, the proposed method and the algorithm are illustrated using a real data set.

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A PANEL ARDL ANALSIS OF THE PRODUCTIVITY OF KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS CONTRIBUTING TO LOCAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AN EMERGING COUNTRY

Author(s): Rufaro Garidzirai,Paul-Francois Muzindutsi / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2020

It has become precise and indisputable that the South African economic growth has been stagnant. Despite this stagnant growth, the productivity of key sectors is supposed to alleviate some of the challenges of the South African economy. The aim of this study is to identify the key sectors that may assist in boosting economic growth at a local level. This study employed three estimators (PMG, MG and DFE) of a panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to analyse the short- and long-run effects of various sectors’ productivity on economic growth in a South African district. By employing annual data from 1996 to 2015, 6 sectors (construction, finance, trade, community service, manufacturing, transport, mining and tourism) from four municipalities in South Africa were analysed. Results show that the productivity of the construction, transport, trade, manufacturing and finance sectors influence economic growth positively in the long-run. However, the productivity of the mining and tourism sectors negatively affect economic growth in the long-run. Short-run results reveal that, in the short-run, the productivity of all sectors, except trade and transport, contribute positively to local economic growth. This study recommends that the government improves the production methods and invests in infrastructure and skills development to advance the productivity of the mining and tourism sectors.

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A Pareto Inefficient Path to Steady State in Recession

Author(s): Taiji HARASHIMA / Language(s): English / Issue: 65/2019

In this paper, the focus is on the concept of Nash equilibrium of a Pareto inefficient path (NEPIP) to examine the nature of the transition path to steady state after a shock that generates a severe recession. Risk-averse and non-cooperative households strategically and rationally choose a NEPIP if a shock that widely shifts the steady state downwards occurs. Because NEPIPs are not Pareto efficient, an infinite number of transition paths can be NEPIPs, but a unique NEPIP is eventually selected from among many possible NEPIPs by households through a tug of war between their preference to avoid a worst-case scenario and the expected utility.

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A Perspective on Industry Classification and Market Reaction to Corporate News: Evidence from India

Author(s): Nayanjyoti Bhattacharjee,Anupam De / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2018

In this paper, we provide a cross-industry perspective on the market reaction to different corporate news in the context of Indian stock market. We have studied the price and volume movements associated with eight broadly defined news categories namely Analyst Calls, Earnings, Earnings Forecasts, Finance, Legal and Regulatory, Management, Operations and Restructuring. We have employed the standard event study methodology on a sample of stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange of India for the purpose of our study. We observe that the market reaction to firm specific corporate news varies according to the type of news across different industry groups. We also observe that the sentiment of the news is a critical factor which influences the market reaction to such news flow across industry groups. We also provide a cross- industry perspective on the relative importance of different corporate news categories after taking into account the sentiment of the news in the context of Indian stock market.

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A RELATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF AGRICULTURE, OIL AND NON-OIL TAX REVENUES TO NIGERIA’S ECONOMIC EXPANSION

Author(s): Cordelia Onyinyechi OMODERO / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2019

The decline in oil prices globally has led to diversification of economy in most oil enriched countries. In Nigeria, more attention is given to agriculture and non-tax revenue sources to ensure that the country overcomes a mono-economy syndrome which has affected the nation in the past. This study assesses the contributions of agriculture, oil and non-oil tax revenue to economic expansion in Nigeria using data that cover a period from 1981 to 2017. The regression results indicate that oil revenue has a significant negative impact on economic growth which is represented by gross domestic product. On the contrary, the study finds evidence that agriculture and non-oil tax revenue have a robust significant and positive influence on economic growth. Therefore, the study suggests that tax administration in Nigeria should be more business-growth conscious and that agriculture should be given a boost by creating an enabling environment that could attract foreign direct investments in the agricultural sector. The study also recommends that oil revenues should be utilized for reinvestments into other sectors of the economy.

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A Research Study of Nonlinearity Experiencing in the Rate of Current Account Deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product

Author(s): Stoyanka Petkova-Georgieva,Zlatina Karadzhova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The nonlinearity in any rate of current account deficit is an important task of research because of the so-called Regime Switching Models: TAR, SETAR, Markov Switching Model, etc. Usually, the behavior of time series exhibit breaks is associated with structural changes in government policy or financial crises. In the present research it is used as an example the calculated data about the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. The series are hard to be modelling because of the structural change of the government policy about the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. The basic hypothesis that is tested in the conducted research is that when there is a case of changes in the time series in their structure it is impossible the principles of linearity assumption to be applied. In the traditional econometrics as a science the linearity is an important assumption but there are practical evidences in which most of the time series do not provide this assumption. These cases of such time series behavior are called nonlinearity series. It is important to test the linearity assumption because of the differing between the ways of modelling the series in the case of linearity and nonlinearity using the date of the rate of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product. If any series do not provide the linearity assumption and also have change in the structure then the case can be modelling with TAR, SETAR or Markov Switching Model. We provided the research by questioning whether there is nonlinearity in the rate of proportion of current account deficit to the Bulgarian Tourism National Product and it is experienced with four nonlinearity tests: Kaplan Test, McLeodLi test, BDS Test and Tzay Test.

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A Review of the Management Process with the Mediating Role of the Budget Process on the Performance of Vietnamese SMEs

Author(s): Khanh Tuan Vuong,Premkumar Rajagopal / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2020

The SME sector has a large representation within Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)-Vietnam and it provides a significant contribution in supporting the socio-economic benefits. SMEs in the manufacturing sector within HCMC that participate in the global markets, should embrace and adopt enhanced performance to maximize the overall benefits and outcomes. This will promote the efficient management of the enterprises' overall internal resources in providing competitive equality with global corporations. Therefore, this empirical study analyses and reviews the management process that has adopted the mediating role of the budget process on the SMEs' performance. Based on the review of theories and related studies, it is evidenced that, the management process has incorporated the core-factors namely; business planning, organizational commitment, strategy implementation, managerial control with mediating role of the budget process; these applied core-factors contribute significantly in supporting the SMEs performance within the manufacturing sector of HCMC. Additionally, the outcomes of this empirical study will provide the key-procedures for SMEs such as; high-value knowledge and concepts to restructure their overall management, to gain growth in performance, improve their management capacity, develop their enterprises' sustainability into the new era.

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A simple model of developing countries: financing the current account deficit

Author(s): Özgür Bayram Soylu / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2020

A stock flow consistent model provides a monetary and financial framework to macroeconomics. It clearly shows the sources of financing for investments and also answers the following questions: Where does the finance for investment come from? and How are budget and current account deficits financed? This paper presents a simple stock flow consistent model for the developing countries with current account deficits. Most of these countries seem to cover the current account deficit by public borrowing and private sector borrowing. For this purpose, the motivation of this paper is based on the state of these countries and the modelling of their position.

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A Stochastic Numerical Approach for Contaminant Removal in Constructed Wetlands under Uncertain-But-Bounded Input Parameters

Author(s): Konstantinos Liolios,Georgios Skodras,Krasimir Georgiev,Ivan Georgiev / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

The operation problem of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands (HSFCW) to remove pollutants under uncertainty is investigated numerically in a stochastic way. Uncertain-but-bounded input-parameters are considered as interval parameters with known upper and lower bounds. This uncertainty is treated by using the Monte Carlo method. A typical pilot case of an HSFCW concerning Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) removal is presented and numerically investigated. The relevant numerical results have a good matching to available experimental ones, and so the effectiveness and the reliability of the proposed stochastic approach is proven.

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A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO THE KEY MODERN TOURISM TRENDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Author(s): Milan Počuča,Jelena Matijašević-Obradović / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 0

One of the most important measures in creating a more competitive position in the tourism market is the adoption of the appropriate planning documents in the field of tourism and tourism development,in particular the adoption of a clear and responsible Strategy of tourism development, as wellas defining the key strategic goals and directions of tourism development. The current Strategy laysparticular emphasis on the key modern tourism trends: in the promotion and booking methods, in thefield of accommodation, and with regard to contemporary motives for travel in the global tourism market.Besides the relevant issues regarding tourism, special emphasis is placed on the strategic approachto the key modern tourism trends in the Republic of Serbia.

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A Struggle for Survival: The Polish Agricultural Sector from Communism to EU Accession

Author(s): Silvia Borzutzky,Emmanuel Kranidis / Language(s): English / Issue: 04/2005

This article discusses the evolution of the Polish agricultural sector, its struggle for survival since 1945, and the effects of this struggle on the Polish economy. The article provides insights and conclusions about the flaws of the communist economic system and central planning policies, the successes and problems of the Polish transition to a free market system, the effects of EU policies on the agricultural sector, and the depth of the relationships between the agricultural sector and the national economy. The article concludes with a discussion of the impact of the Poland-EU Association Agreement and the effect of preaccession policies on the agricultural sector. The analysis indicates that EU accession has not solved the structural problems of the Polish agricultural sector such as overemployment, farm size, and lack of capital. However, EU accession provides the potential for a better future if a stable economic environment is created and if foreign capital is attracted.

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A Study on the Chain of Cost Values – Online Trust: Applications in Mobile Commerce in Vietnam

Author(s): Ha Minh Nguyen,Bui Thanh KHOA / Language(s): English / Issue: 63/2019

Mobile commerce (m-commerce) is making a big difference in the perception of cost, value, and online customer trust in the business. Besides monetary cost, the spiritual cost also contributes to the change in not perceived value but also online trust. Based on qualitative and quantitative research with Structural Equation Model (SEM), the paper examines as well as confirms the negative relationship between perceived cost (monetary and spiritual) and perceived value; moreover, the study also explores perceived value that has a mediating role in the negative relationship between perceived spiritual cost and online customer trust to m-commerce business in Vietnam. Besides, some managerial implications are proposed for m-commerce business via electronic devices.

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