A Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Model for the Nigerian Economy

Author(s): Mutiu Gbade Rasaki / Language(s): English / Issue: 01/2018

This paper develops and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the Nigerian economy using the Bayesian technique. We include a number of frictions, rigidities, and shocks in our model. The results show a considerable evidence of price stickiness in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results suggest that the forward-looking component dominates price setting behaviour in Nigeria. Moreover, the findings indicate that external shocks such as external debt, exchange rate and foreign inflation shocks largely influence output fluctuations in Nigeria while inflation is driven by money supply, productivity, nominal exchange rate and domestic interest rate shocks. Lastly, the findings indicate that the monetary authority responds strongly to real exchange rate shocks.

A Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach to Forecast Mexico’s Consumer Index

Author(s): Mario A. GARCÍA-MEZA,Francisco Venegas-Martínez / Language(s): English / Issue: 57/2018

A Bayesian structural time series model is used to forecast the current value of the consumption index in Mexico, where correlated searches in Google's search engine are used to determine the weekly value of the index. Mexico’s Institute of Statistics and Geography releases the consumer index, along with other important macroeconomic variables, in a three-month span from their recollection. This can be improved by using information that is readily available just a few days from the end of each month to create an estimate with Bayesian methods. For this we set the time series model in state space mode, which allows us to use a big set of regressors as predictors of the current value of Mexico’s consumer index. The main finding is that the use of the search queries improves significantly the accuracy of prediction.

A Business-cycle-model with a Modified Cash-in-advance Feature, Government Sector and Oneperiod Nominal Wage Contracts: The Case of Bulgaria

Author(s): Aleksandar Vasilev / Language(s): English / Issue: 8/2018

We augment an otherwise standard business cycle model with a richer government sector, and add a modified cash in advance considerations, and one-period-ahead nominal wage contracts. In particular, the cash in advance constraint of Cooley and Hansen (1989) is extended to include private investment and government consumption. This specification, together with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016), gives a role to money in propagating economic fluctuations. In addition, the combinations of these ingredients allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables, and those characterizing the labor market in particular.

A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive Firms and Calvo wages: the case of Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016)

Author(s): Aleksandar Vasilev / Language(s): English / Issue: 7/2018

We augment an otherwise standard business cycle model with a richer government sector, and add monopolistic competition in the product market, and rigid prices, as well as rigid wages a la Calvo (1983) in the labor market. This specification with the nominal wage rigidity, when calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016), allows the framework to reproduce better observed variability and correlations among model variables, and those characterizing the labor market in particular. As nominal wage frictions are incorporated, the variables become more persistent, especially output, capital stock, investment and consumption, which helps the model match data better.

A captive island: Kaliningrad between Moscow and the EU

Author(s): Jadwiga Rogoża,Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The Kaliningrad region can be called a 'captive island', because of its specific geopolitical location - it is part of the Russian legal, political and economic space, yet it is geographically separated from the rest of the Russian Federation, and it is particularly open to co-operation with its neighbours in the European Union. Moscow is trying to compensate the region for its separation, offering it financial support and economic privileges.At the same time, it is sensitive to any potential challenges to Russia's territorial integrity - and the centre's desire for control over the region often limits the latter's potential for cooperation and internal development. This report presents the situation in the region, and is intended to help develop a model for its effective regional co-operation with its EU neighbours.

A CASE STUDY ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF THE ROMANIAN CONSOLIDATED GENERAL BUDGET

Author(s): Liliana Manea,Ciprian GIJU / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2019

The objective of this article is to develop an economic model quantifying for one of the main Romanian Consolidated General Budget performance indicators, the country risk. The analysis carried out over a 3 years period, and the data used had been reported, for the budget execution of this period. Through the study of the specialized literature and the analytical methods, a model of the Romanian country risk assessment developed, with the advantage of observational synthesis and the quantification of certain historical data, arising the possibility of forecasting, as well. The limitation of this analysis is about the allocations compared only at the level of the consolidated budget in relation to the state budget.

A centrum hitele: A magyar állam külső eladósodásának történetéről (Mong A.: Kádár hitele; Mihályi P.: A magyar gazdaság útja az adósságválságba)

Author(s): Márk Áron Éber / Language(s): Hungarian / Issue: 21/2014

A century of Polish economic policy

Author(s): Wojciech Morawski / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2018

The economic policy of Polish governments changed but can be broadly divided into two groups. The first encompassed periods when Polish policy belonged to a widelyde defined world mainstream. The second - those when Polish governments attempted alternatives to the mainstream, looking for various ways of "taking a shortcut". In general, the first group helped economic development, the second hindered it, isolating the country from the world economy. The first group included the entire interwar period, when autarchic tendencies were mainstream, as well as the years 1944-1947 and 1989-2015.

A Classification of Polish Households Based on a Credit Portfolio and Debt Service Ratio

Author(s): Paulina Anioła-Mikołajczak / Language(s): English / Issue: 5/2016

The aim of this paper is to show the diversity of Polish households’ financial behavior in terms of debt as well as an identification of households that are characterized by a high debt to income ratio. The article also attempt to assess the debt to income ratio as a measure of households over-indebtedness. To achieve the main objective, the cluster analysis method was used. Based on the households credits portfolio and the level of debt to income ratio, 11 homogeneous groups of households were generated. Five of them were characterized by a high debt to income ratio (>30%), which classify them as overindebted.

A Comparative Analysis of Polish and Czech International New Ventures

Author(s): Lidia Danik,Izabela Kowalik,Petr Král / Language(s): English / Issue: 2/2016

The goal of this paper is to compare the characteristics of Polish and Czech companies which follow the Born Global internationalization model. More concretely, the analysis aims to discover the differences or similarities in terms of the internationalization paths of Polish and Czech SMEs in the characteristics of their managers in terms of the so-called "international vision" and in their innovativeness level. The introductory part of article provides a description of this internationalization model and the International New Ventures traits (INV) and summarizes the recent studies on this topic conducted in Poland and Czech Republic. In the empirical part, the International New Ventures from the two countries are compared. The Polish sample includes 105 companies which were surveyed with use of computer assisted telephone interviews in autumn 2014. For the Czech Republic, the sample consists of 54 small and medium-sized companies, which were surveyed using the computer assisted web interviews from November 2013 till January 2014. The surveyed companies in both countries fulfilled the definition of Born Globals. Descriptive statistics, cross-tabulation analysis and non-parametric tests are applied to accomplish the goals of the paper.

A comparative analysis of research – development and innovation activities in Romania

Author(s): Laura Asandului,Livia Baciu / Language(s): English / Issue: Spec/2010

When adopting the recommendations of the Lisbon Agenda or Strategy, the European states have decided that in order to make the European Union a space of competitiveness and greater social cohesion and a model of sustainable economic growth, research-development and innovation (RDI) must become the main pillar of the member states common policies. Consequently, the European Council recommended more investment in research and development, setting the collective EU target of raising research investment to 3% of the GDP, namely 1% from public funds and 2% from private sector. The current economic and financial crisis and the pressure it poses on resources, public or private, ]has limited to some extent the achievement of these objectives. The investments might not increase as anticipated or they might even decrease. However, several states have understood that, in times of crisis, the investment in research and innovation might bring tremendous gains in terms of new technologies, human capital and knowledge or, in other words, gains in economic competitiveness. This paper aims at providing a comparative analysis of the Romanian situation using the statistical indicators of the knowledge economy, those related to RDI financing and also to RDI results for the short period of time when financing has increased as a result of applying the objectives set out by the Lisbon Strategy. We underline the fact that without financing there is no research and innovation and without policies to support RDI the delays in development cannot be recovered. The final part of the paper provides several recommendations aiming at improving the RDI policies in Romania in accordance with post-2010 Lisbon Strategy.

A Comparative Analysis of Sustainable Development in Romania and Moldova from an Institutionalist Perspective

Author(s): Andreea-Oana Iacobuță,Rodica PERCIUN / Language(s): English / Issue: 11/2017

This paper takes an institutional perspective and puts forward the idea that ensuring sustainability, in all its three dimensions – economic, social and ecological, mainly depends on the rules of the game that guide human behavior. In other words, it is the right mix of formal (such as, well-defined and enforced property rights) and informal (for example, norms of reciprocity of trust, involvement, tolerance etc.) institutions that provides proper incentives for the individuals to take responsibility rather than make compromises for fear of being sanctioned. Using indicators on sustainable development and the quality of institutional framework, the paper provides a comparative analysis of Romanian and Moldova regarding these issues and discusses the potential of Romania and Moldova to reach sustainability.

A Comparative Analysis of the Ukraine Crisis Through the Prisms of Offensive Realism and Liberal Internationalism

Author(s): Eray Alım / Language(s): English / Issue: 1/2019

In this article, the Ukraine crisis will be analyzed through the prisms of two different International Relations (IR) theories, namely Offensive Realism and Liberal Internationalism. While presenting relevant theoretical discussions, this work will specifically focus on two IR experts, John J. Mearsheimer and John G. Ikenberry, whose names have been associated with these theories. By drawing on the works of Mearsheimer and Ikenberry’s for Offensive Realism and Liberal Internationalism respectively, this work will try to make sense of the developments surrounding the Ukraine crisis, while also exploring the explanatory capacities of these two theories through a comparative approach. The insights offered by these theories in explaining Russia’s actions and Ukraine’s motivation during the crisis will be put to test. In addition, with a focus on the West, this work also aims to offer perspectives through the prisms of these theories on ways to end the Ukraine crisis.

A Diagnosis of Polish Start-Ups

Author(s): Patrycja Marzec,Agnieszka Sitko-Lutek / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2017

The paper analyses Polish start-ups operating on the market. In addition, it compares international trends, as well as ecosystems of innovative Polish start-ups. Particular attention was devoted to a meagre but ever-expanding market of start-ups in the Lublin Voivodeship. Clusters in the Lublin region, which constitute the main driving force behind the establishment of start-ups and support for young entrepreneurs in the region, were also discussed.

A Disequilibrium Model for Lei-Denominated Non-Governmental Credit in Romania

Author(s): Cristian-Florin Dănănău / Language(s): English / Issue: 07/2015

We empirically investigate through an econometric approach the Romanian credit market, namely the lei-denominated part of it, and the factors that interact with it. The main goal is to assess whether a credit crunch occurred in Romania during the economic crisis. To this end we employ the disequilibrium model framework, set up in economic literature some 40 years ago. Our investigation takes into consideration the main macroeconomic determinants of this market, that interact with demand and supply. Our approach has in view the macroeconomic variables such as output, interest rates and foreign currency credit. The demand and supply function are estimated through the maximization of a certain maximum likelihood function. The final conclusion is that, based on the estimated model, one cannot detect a credit crunch in the after-crisis period. This paper’s results show that empirically-constructed disequilibrium models can be used to properly describe the behavior of the lei-denominated credit market, by taking necessary precautions.

A Dynamic Approach to a Comparative Evaluation of Financial Performance of Sections and Sectors of the Polish Economy

Author(s): Wanda Skoczylas,Barbara Batóg / Language(s): English / Issue: 343/2019

Financial performance of companies and their groups is of major interest to all stakeholders. As a result, they assess categories such as profitability, financial liquidity, financial independence, and risk. Separate analyses carried out for each of those elements alone do not always deliver conclusive findings, which is where synthetic methods are helpful. A ranking based on the taxonomic measure of development is one of such methods. The aim of the paper is, firstly, to present opportunities for using a dynamic version of the taxonomic measure of development in a comparative and complex assessment of financial performance in PKD divisions (Polish Classification of Activity), and, secondly, to evaluate changes in this area in the years 2014–2016. The data used for developing the ranking were sourced from the joint publication of industry indicators by the Financial Analysis Commission at the Research Council of the Accountants Association in Poland and InfoCredit, and from the Statistics Poland.

A fair tax (system) or an ethical taxpayer?

Author(s): Tamás Bánfi / Language(s): English / Issue: s1/2015

An interpretation of fairness based on the equal sacrifice principle is not clear; three taxation rules can be derived from it. Instead of searching for a fair tax system, ethical behavior of the taxpayer should be expected and set as a target. Ethical taxation can be encouraged and the propensity to pay taxes could be reinforced by abolishing the secrecy of individual and family tax returns, setting restrictions on cash operations which are associated with corruption, and gradually eliminating tax havens and offshore areas.

A Financial Analysis of the Liquidity Creation and the Capital Holdings of Turkish Banks

Author(s): Gamze Ozturk Danisman / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2018

In this paper, the impact of the amount of bank capital on the bank liquidity creation is explored using a sample of 21 Turkish banks and quarterly data for the period 2010Q1- 2017Q4. Our methodology involves fixed effects panel data estimation techniques and we use lagged independent variables to control for endogeneity. Our findings indicate that the liquidity creation of Turkish banks has dramatically increased over time and it is primarily driven by large banks. Our results from the regression analysis indicate that bank liquidity creation is increased under higher levels of capital for the whole sample. While a higher level of bank capital increases bank liquidity for small banks, the opposite case occurs for large banks, namely, the created liquidity decreases by more bank capital. We offer some important policy implications in that while regulators in the emerging markets impose capital requirements on banks, they need to consider the impact on liquidity creation of banks of different sizes.

A financial performance comparison of group and non-group firms in textile sector of Pakistan

Author(s): Ishtiaq Ahmad,Syed Zaheer ABBAS KAZMI / Language(s): English / Issue: 08/2016

Pakistan is a developing economy and business groups are key players of the Pakistan’s economy. Previous research evidence shows that in the emerging economies group affiliation creates value for the firms. This study is intended to empirically investigate to know that whether group affiliated (GA) firms perform financially better than non-group affiliated firms or not? GA firms in emerging economies can have better financial performance by sharing tangible and intangible resources at group level. The financial ratio is used to compare performance of affiliated and non-group affiliated firms by using the data of 70 textile firms listed at Karachi Stock Exchange(now Pakistan Stock Exchange) covering a period from 2008 to 2012. Based on mean values of return on assets (ROA), results of the study show that GA firms have higher financial performance than non-group affiliated firms in each year and over all five years.

A formal model for planning and controlling search and rescue actions at sea

Author(s): Dario Medić,Anita Gudejl,Maja Krčum / Language(s): English / Issue: 3/2016

Recently, during search and rescue actions at sea, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been used. Onboard decision capabilities allow an UAV vehicle to reach the entity that is in distress at sea. UAVs are launched within a few minutes to begin search actions. When the exact location of the injured entity is detected, a rescue action should begin. According to the collected information about the vessel’s position, manoeuvrability, and velocity, the control centre determines which vessel is to be engaged in the rescue action. This highly autonomous system can be described as a discrete event system. Certain states of such systems, such as collisions, are undesirable. This paper presents implementation of information flow to supervise, control, and monitor the behaviour of the UAVs during the search, to avoid collisions and to communicate with computational onboard sub-systems. Planning algorithms and coloured Petri nets are used to specify different phases of the mission execution. When a certain UAV detects an injured entity, alternative encoded reactions are triggered and a control centre starts implementing the rescue plan.