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Can the EU win the Peace in Georgia?

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Mark Leonard,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

The EU has established itself as the main diplomatic broker in the conflict between Russia and Georgia. It should use this position to help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order. Russia has used its conflict with Georgia to display its military power, reclaim a sphere of influence and frighten its neighbours. Rather than looking for punitive measures, the EU should respond to Russia’s demonstration of force with much stronger engagement for democracy, prosperity and security in the broader region - keeping tough measures towards Moscow on the table if Russia resists.This war was caused in part by the dysfunctionality of the previous ‘peace-keeping’ process in Georgia. The EU must work hard towards ensuring that any new arrangements are not unilateral and do not merely legitimate Russia’s de facto control. The EU should promote an international peace-keeping mission and offer to deploy a civilian reconstruction mission dealing with development, building confidence and security between both sides, and tackling wider political issues. It should also encourage the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry to help establish the truth on the causes and conduct of the war.Instead of focusing on short-term sanctions against Russia, the EU should move quickly to raise its profile in the Eastern Neighbourhood and to help stabilise other conflict regions - paying attention both to old ‘frozen’ conflicts and potential new flashpoints. The EU should also make a special commitment to Ukraine: It should recognise its right to EU membership in the future, agree to a more liberal visa regime, offer a solidarity clause backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and move to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s energy market.

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EGYPT’S HYBRID REVOLUTION: A bolder EU Approach

Author(s): Anthony Dworkin,Daniel Korski,Nick Witney / Language(s): English

The success or failure of Egypt’s transition to democracy will have huge consequences for the Middle East and for Europe. If the country overcomes the obstacles to political reform, it would set a powerful example for the region. But although the ruling Military Council appears committed to hand over power, it is governing in an opaque way and has resorted to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism. Some liberals also worry that the quick timetable for elections will favour the remnants of the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. The revolution has also exacerbated the precarious state of the country’s economy. // Despite Egypt’s importance, however, the EU has struggled to achieve influence in the country. In March Ashton and Barroso proposed a new policy framework, which is a good start but should be strengthened, for example by cancelling Egyptian debt. In the longer term, the EU should take a more political approach and behave more like a regional power. For example, Europeans should say clearly that military leaders who resort to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism are violating fundamental political rights. EU officials must also be ready to engage with all Egypt’s political groups, including former NDP members and the Muslim Brotherhood. Europe needs to move beyond fear about migration to see the potential for longer-term economic benefits for both sides of the Mediterranean.

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CHINA’S JANUS-FACED RESPONSE TO THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS

Author(s): Jonas Parello-Plesner,Raffaelo Pantucci / Language(s): English

China’s response to the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa was two-faced like the Roman god Janus. In a pragmatic break with its sovereigntist approach to international relations, China inter-vened to protect thousands of its citizens and its growing commercial interests in North Africa and sup-ported UN sanctions against Muammar Gaddafi. However, since February there has also been a wi-despread crackdown to prevent the wave of protests that had engulfed the Middle East and North Africa spreading to China. The arrest of artist Ai Weiwei at the beginning of April brought this crack-down to the attention of the world. // This Janus-faced response presents a dilemma for the European Union. On the one hand, it suggests that China could in the future become a partner for the EU in crisis management and that it is moving towards a more proactive foreign policy. On the other hand, China’s response to protests at home represents a clear challenge to the EU’s newfound commitment to de-mocracy promotion. The EU should therefore seek to do more crisis-management planning together with China while remaining vocal and consistent on China’s human rights and internal reform process, even if it incites Chinese anger and results in a reaction in other fields.

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HOW TO STOP THE DEMILITARISATION OF EUROPE

Author(s): Nick Witney / Language(s): English

Discounting threats of armed attack and disillusioned with liberal interventionism, Europeans are shrin-king their militaries and banking on “soft” power. But this betrays a failure to understand the nature of the new, multiplayer global environment that will determine Europe’s future security and prosperity. The value of Europe’s armed forces is less in countering specific “threats” than as necessary instruments of power and influence in a rapidly changing world, where militaries still matter. Unless it gets over its discomfort with hard power, Europe’s half-hearted efforts to improve the efficiency of its defence spending will continue to fail. // This Policy Brief argues that Europeans now need to reassess their strategic environment, reconsider the role that hard power should play in it and relaunch their efforts to combine their defence efforts and resources. The Weimar Triangle – Germany, France and Poland – should jointly press for a heavyweight commission to conduct a European Defence Review, which would examine member states’ defence policies, much as the budget plans of eurozone members are now reviewed in a “European semester”; rewrite the European Security Strategy; and present to Euro-pean leaders a menu of big, bold proposals for decisive further defence integration. The alternative will be not just the end of the common defence policy but the steady erosion of Europe’s ability to defend its interests and values in the twenty-first century.

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EUROPE AND THE ARAB REVOLUTIONS: A NEW VISION FOR DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS

Author(s): Susi Dennison,Anthony Dworkin / Language(s): English

In the aftermath of this year’s revolutions, the EU has rightly recommitted itself to the support of de-mocracy and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa. However, although protesters across the southern Mediterranean share some of the EU’s values, they do not see Europe as a political model and democracy in the region is likely to produce some results with which Europeans are not comfortab-le. This brief argues that, in response, the EU should focus above all on the development of legitimate and accountable governments in post-revolutionary countries in the Arab world. Rather than backing specific political groups in countries that are in transition, the EU should work to create the building blocks and background conditions for fair and inclusive politics. // The EU should also try to support human rights through transparent diplomacy and support for civil society. In countries such as Moroc-co that remain undemocratic, the EU should develop a more political approach that pushes harder for incremental reform in return for credible benefits, while continuing to engage on other EU interests. The use of violence against civilians in countries like Syria should be a red line for limiting cooperation, dra-wing condemnation and sanctions in severe cases. EU proposals on conditionality and a new European Endowment for Democracy will be most effective if they are focused on the support of accountable and legitimate government.

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Turcja wobec kryzysu syryjskiego

Author(s): Szymon Ananicz / Language(s): Polish

The escalation of tensions on the Turkish-Syrian border in early October confirms that it is ongoing. For more than a year and a half, the civil war in Syria is one of the main challenges for Turkey foreign and security policy. Ambitions to play a key role in the Middle East, in particular, a number of threats to Turkey related to the escalation of the conflict prompt Ankara to actively engage in bringing the crisis to an end under secure conditions, i.e.: Turkey's security and as much influence as possible on the situation in Syria and the region. For the main purposes Ankara now has to bring about the overthrow of the regime of President Bashar Assad and peace transformation in Syria while maintaining security. For the implementation of these goals, Türkiye has taken a number of unilateral and international actions. Their results were limited so far. Maintaining Damascus' military advantage over the opposition and none strong enough pressure on the Assad regime from the international community does not offer prospects for a quick end to the conflict on terms that suit Ankara's interests. At the same time, the negative effects of the crisis on Turkey are intensifying. In this situation, of particular importance has an alliance for Turkey to increase security and achieve Syrian policy goals with the West, mainly within NATO, as well as with the United States and EU countries. Cooperation within NATO and with individual Western countries in the face of the crisis is for Ankara as a test of the usefulness of the alliance with the West. This rating will affect the influence of the West on Turkey in its Middle East policy.

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The Taliban-U.S. Agreement - Still a Long Way to Peace

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The agreement signed in Qatar on 29 February does not end the war in Afghanistan but facilitates the withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. The deal weakens the official authorities in Kabul and strengthens the Taliban ahead of planned peace talks. It may, however, increase President Donald Trump’s re-election chances.

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The Turkish-Russian Agreement on Syria

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

During a meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin, which took place on 5 March in Moscow, a ceasefire in Idlib was established. The agreement postpones the takeover of the entire province by the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad but it sanctions its territorial gains in Idlib’s south. In the following weeks, the situation in Idlib will remain unstable. Turkey, fearing the resumption of Assad’s offensive, will strengthen its efforts to get EU and NATO support for establishing a security zone in the north of Idlib.

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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Receives Nobel Peace Prize

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

On 11 October, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced its 100th Peace Prize has been awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He was honoured for his efforts to make peace on the Horn of Africa, particularly for his country’s ground-breaking reconciliation with neighbouring Eritrea. The pace, however, of both the political liberalisation of Ethiopia and the implementation of the agreement with Eritrea have slowed.

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Uyghur Dissident Ilham Tohti Awarded Sakharov Prize

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

This year, the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought was awarded by the European Parliament to Uyghur dissident Ilham Tohti. The award symbolises objections to the increased repression of Uyghurs - a Turkic ethnic minority, many of whom are Muslim - in China. It also represents support for Ilham’s concept of peaceful coexistence with native Chinese. The prize is unlikely to change Chinese policy on the Uyghurs but shows that human rights will remain an important part of the EU’s policy towards China.

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The ICJ Judgment on Preliminary Objections in Ukraine v. Russia

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The 8 November judgment by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the first one in a series of proceedings before major international tribunals initiated since 2014 by Ukraine against Russia. The proceedings are related to the Russian authorities’ support of illegal armed groups in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

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Międzynarodowe konsultacje w Dżeddziena temat pokoju na Ukrainie

Author(s): Sara Nowacka,Maria Piechowska / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 5–6 sierpnia br. w Dżeddzie w Arabii Saudyjskiej odbyły się międzypaństwowe konsultacje na temat pokoju na Ukrainie. Wzięli w nich udział przedstawiciele 40 państw, w tym z Afryki, Ameryki Południowej i Azji. Do rozmów nie została zaproszona Rosja. Spotkanie stało się platformą starań o budowę poparcia dla ukraińskiego planu pokojowego – kładącego nacisk na odzyskanie integralności terytorialnej Ukrainy – wśród państw, które nie zajęły dotąd zdecydowanego stanowiska w sprawie rosyjskiej agresji.

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Sytuacja militarna na Ukrainie – stan na 10 marca 2023 r.

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

W ostatnich tygodniach najcięższe walki toczą się w obwodzie donieckim, zwłaszcza o miasto Bachmut. Jego zdobycie jest istotne dla Rosjan zarówno ze względów propagandowych, jak i militarnych, ponieważ może m.in. ułatwić dalszą ofensywę w kierunku zachodnim. W związku z koniecznością efektywnego powstrzymywania rosyjskich działań rośnie znaczenie szybkich dostaw zachodniego sprzętu dla Ukrainy i prowadzonych w państwach NATO szkoleń ukraińskich żołnierzy.

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Libyan Civil War: Enabling Illicit Migration Flows, Threatening Libya’s Neighbors - Only by supporting a long-term political solution to the Libyan conflict can the EU address the migration crisis

Author(s): Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

It is no coincidence that the three boats that capsized in the Mediterranean in April 2015 causing deaths of hundreds of migrants all set sail from Libya. It is estimated that most of more than 36 000 people who tried to cross to Europe in 2015 embarked in Libya and used various routes across the central Mediterranean sea to Italy. Since the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 Libya has suffered from growing instability, factionalism and, since July 2014, increasingly chaotic civil war. The recent conflict has pitted two loose alliances against each other: the first is the internationally recognized government based in Tobruk in the east of the country and backed by the Libyan Army and various militias; the second is the rival administration formed by pro-Islamist forces in the capital Tripoli, which relies on a diverse coalition of armed groups. The situation is further complicated by the presence of various local armed factions and militant jihadists allied either to Islamic State, or Ansar al-Sharia. The failed post-Gaddafi transition and ensuing civil war have crippled state institutions and fragmented political authority. Combined with porous borders, this situation has allowed flourishing people smuggling networks to operate with impunity and created problems for Libya’s neighbours.

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European Re-Engagement in UN Peacekeeping? - The small and medium European states need to face the unexpected challenges to be effectively involved in UN peacekeeping missions

Author(s): Jan Daniel,Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English

The pledges made by many European nations at the World Leaders' Summit on Peacekeeping in September 2015 and large number of European troops in United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) both mark an important trend – the return of the European NATO armies to UN peacekeeping. With a few exceptions (UNIFIL in Lebanon and smaller units in Cyprus and the Golan Heights) European troops have been largely absent from UN operations since the termination of the missions in the former Yugoslavia. The recent withdrawal from Afghanistan and developments in European southern neighborhood have again made UN missions an attractive option for European nations both for security and capacity reasons. The European nations have decided to strengthen their presence in the Sahel region, through EU missions (particularly training and assistance missions) but also by responding to UN calls for greater contributions. This trend has culminated in the significant contributions of small and medium sized European armies to MINUSMA, which represents an important learning process for both the UN and European nations as well as paving the way for future operations.

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Deterrence or Resilience? - NATO´s Defence Posture to Russia after the Warsaw Summit

Author(s): Luboš Fendrych / Language(s): English

Rather than deploying ground forces on its Eastern flank, the Alliance needs to embrace more sophisticated deterrence measures to dissuade Russia from its disruptive activities. NATO can do this through increased emphasis on resilience, but it must ensure that it also engages with Russia. The Warsaw summit took place at a time when the Euro-Atlantic community faces diverse security challenges ranging from provocative military intimidation on its doorstep to hybrid warfare and cyber threats as well as instability in several of its neighbouring regions. The deteriorating security environment accompanied by social and political frictions across the transatlantic space led some policymakers (e.g., Polish President Andrzej Duda or Lithuania´s Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius) to put high hopes into the Summit. Although some expectations were fulfilled (e.g., permanent presence of NATO´s troops on Polish soil and in the Baltic), the result of the meeting is not as ground-breaking as could have been expected.

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The Disappearance of the Battlefield in the War on Terror - The Global War on Terror’s policy of targeted killing is transforming the character of war and undercutting the means to regulate it.

Author(s): Antoine Bousquet / Language(s): English

The classical image of the battlefield evokes a bounded physical space in which massed armies clash for a day in search of a decisive resolution. Such battles feature prominently throughout recorded history and continue to inform contemporary conceptions of the battlefield. Yet this traditional image of the battlefield was already a fading reality in the twentieth century. Over the course of two world wars, the zones of offensive operations expanded across continents and civilian populations became targets of intense aerial bombardment under the doctrine of total war. The Cold War took place against the ever-present backdrop of a possible nuclear conflagration of apocalyptic proportions, with the antagonism between the superpowers consequently displaced into a persistent state of worldwide struggle, ranging from proxy wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan to competition in the space race and the arts. The bounded, unitary battlefield is, however, facing perhaps its greatest challenge today in the context of the on-going War on Terror. Indeed, global military campaigns of targeted killing threaten to undermine the laws of war devised to regulate and constrain the use of armed force.

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WOMEN FOR PEACE

Author(s): / Language(s): English

We are a group of women who, in Black and Silence, express our protest against war. Th is type of protest was by Israeli woman pacifist in January 1988, protesting against the occupation of the Palestinian people, supported by Palestinian and American women. In this manner, the women have demonstrated that women s solidarity confronts us and divides us with well defined aims. In February of this year, Italian woman pacifists in the same way protested their opposition to the war in the Persian Gulf. The same was done by woman pacifists in Germany and Britain. Some weeks ago, Women in Black in Italy protested against the war in Yugoslavia. Women in Black of Belgrade each Wednesday gather in public places to protest, in black and silence, against the war.

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Serbia – Kosovo 2023: The disinformation war

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

As the end of 2023 approaches, tensions in the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo are on the rise. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the local elections in northern Kosovo's municipalities of Mitrovica, Leposavić, Zvečan, and Zubin Potok, which were boycotted by members of the majority Serbian community, have led to an upsurge in tensions and violence. In February 2023, envoys from France, Germany, the EU, the US, and Italy met with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) and Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti (LVV) in an attempt to persuade them to sign a plan aimed at calming tensions and achieving full normalization of relations. The outcome was the unsigned Ohrid Agreement, outlining the parties' specific commitments for implementation. More recently, Azerbaijan initiated a military operation, successfully reclaiming the secessionist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, an event that consequently reverberates in its implications for the situation in Kosovo.

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Georgia, Russia and the North Caucasus: Is Enmity What States Make of It?

Author(s): George Khelashvili / Language(s): English

This paper is an attempt to analyse the root causes of discord between Georgia and Russia that pertain to the politics of the North Caucasus. In the first section, an overview of the North Caucasus problem as existing since the late 1980s is given. In the following section, the international political dimension of the Georgian-Russian squabble over the North Caucasus is analysed, followed by the domestic political and ideational factors that influence Georgian policy toward the North Caucasus. Finally, a plausible basis for the solution of the North Caucasian problem is discussed, in the context of intensity of Georgian-Russian political disagreement.

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