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№019: India in Afghanistan: Valuable Partner of the West

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Recent conclusion of the Agreement on Strategic Partnership between Afghanistan and India has underscored India’s low-profile engagement in the war-torn country. This paper presents the record of Indian involvement in Afghanistan after 2001 and analyses the potential for increased presence at three distinct levels: civilian, military and regional. The author argues that in spite of Pakistani objections, the West should strengthen cooperation with India in reconstruction and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan while providing strong incentives for constructive regional cooperation in South Asia. Even as NATO is gearing up for a responsible exit from Afghanistan, its neighbours are there to stay. Crucially, the role that India can play in Afghanistan needs to be reassessed. The upcoming conferences in Istanbul and Bonn offer an excellent opportunity in this respect.

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№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

The paper pictures a broad panorama of factors that are likely to impact the future prospects of Moldova’s integration with the EU. The authors argue that Moldova’s best chance to move further down this path could depend on a favourable, if fragile, realignment among three EU member states whose interests seem to be spelled out in a sufficiently clear manner: Germany, Poland and Romania.

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№010: South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

Author(s): Berenika Stefańska / Language(s): English

W przededniu ogłoszenia niepodległości przez Republikę Sudanu Południowego (9 lipca) związanemu z tym faktem entuzjazmowi dorównuje jedynie niepokój o to, czy nowe państwo sprosta piętrzącym się przed nim wyzwaniom politycznym, gospodarczym i społecznym oraz w sferze bezpieczeństwa. Niektóre z tych problemów, jak dramatyczna sytuacja humanitarna, braki w rozwoju, dominacja gospodarki surowcowej jako źródła dochodów do budżetu państwa, słabość instytucji centralnych i ich rywalizacja z tradycyjnymi strukturami plemiennymi, a także nierozstrzygnięte spory graniczne z sąsiadami, upodabniają sytuację Sudanu Południowego do wielu innych państw afrykańskich. Kwestią otwartą pozostaje to, jakiej pomocy w pierwszych, trudnych latach niepodległości będzie mogła udzielić Sudanowi Południowemu społeczność międzynarodowa.

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Report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer No 2

Author(s): Erich Kříž,Katalin Antaloczy,Magdolna Sass,Patryk Toporowski,Karol Frank / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs recommends you the report: V4 Trade and FDI Observer: Panorama of Automotive Industry prepared under the project: V4 Trade and FDI Observer, financed by the International Visegrad Fund. PISM was represented in this project by Patryk Toporowski, PISM analyst, who was responsible in substance for a section on Poland.The report is the result of work of the small team of experts from the Visegrad Group countries: the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Editor of the whole document is Tamás Szemler (ICEG European Centre). The aim of the report is the analysis of current trade and foreign direct investments in the automotive industry.

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Towards a V4 Position on the Future of Europe

Author(s): / Language(s): English

On 19 October 2012, representatives from the four Visegrad countries met in Warsaw, at PISM, to discuss national approaches to the current sovereign debt crisis and the EU’s increasing use of differentiated integration. The goal was to explore the potential of a joint response to hazards that might sideline the Four in EU affairs. The present report picks up on the issues discussed there, with contributions from Janusz Gąciarz, Radovan Kavický, David Král, László Sinka, Rafał Trzaskowski. By identifying much potential for future cooperation, the report, edited by Agata Gostyńska and Roderick Parkes, draws recommendations for the Visegrad Group that can ultimately result in their upgraded cooperation on the EU arena.

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Still Awake-The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change

Author(s): / Language(s): English

We are pleased to announce the release of the joint PISM - FIIA report: Still Awake: The Beginnings of Arab Democratic Change, edited by Timo Behr (FIIA) and Patrycja Sasnal (PISM). With the deluge of focused policy analyses and daily news from the Middle East, the report attempts to look at the changes in the Arab world in a long-term and clearly structured perspective along with unorthodox conclusions. It examines five cases of political transition in the Arab world—Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria and Yemen—and summarizes the events so far and provides country-by-country timelines. Another distinct aspect of the report is that it has been produced by two major think tanks from European countries that do not have vital interests in the Middle East: Poland and Finland. Apart from the chapters authored by the editors it also features contributions from Hanna Ebeid (ACPSS, Egypt), Sylvia Colombo (IAI, Italy) and two Polish diplomats, Stanisław Guliński and Jakub Sławek.

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Asserting the EU’s Mission in the Neighbourhood: Ten Recommendations for an Effective Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Kerry Longhurst,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The authors consider that the EU needs to assert its role and mission in the Eastern neighbourhood with more vigour. To do this the Eastern Partnership needs to focus on the job of building up the rule of law and democracy in Eastern Europe. Though much has been achieved over the past two years, in terms of creating up the institutional framework for EaP, the reality is that democracy is back sliding in the region, corruption is endemic and social and economic catch-up of EaP countries towards EU levels is uncertain. Without fuller democratisation and promotion of the rule of law in the neighbourhood the implementation of EaP will be stunted.The Eastern Partnership holds the potential to do more but only if the EU develops a ‘democratic acquis’ replete with a precise reform agenda. Building up administrations and rooting out the sources and practices that perpetuate corruption should be a priority, twinned with a better capacity to support civil society and non-registered opposition groups and political parties, as envisaged in the European Endowment for Democracy. Negotiations on trade need to be accompanied by meaningful benefits and concessions that partner states can enjoy in the short and medium term if economies are to grow. Finally, to meet the expectations of those countries that value their European identities and where public support for the EU exists the effectiveness of EaP can be bolstered by stressing Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. Emphasising a ‘European Perspective’ will remind partner states and EU members of the right that all European countries have to join the EU if they share EU values and fulfil economic and political membership criteria.

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Visegrad Cooperation within NATO and CSDP

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Polish Institute of International Affairs has published the second issue of the “V4 Papers” titled “Visegrad Cooperation within NATO and CSDP”. The volume edited by Dr Csaba Törő of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs analyzes past experiences and prospects for V4 cooperation within NATO and the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. It also encompasses Baltic and Ukrainian perspectives on security and defense issues. The publication is a part of a project "Creating a Sphere of Security in Wider Central Europe: Sharing V4 Know-how in Cooperation on Security with the Neighbouring Regions" supported by the International Visegrad Fund.

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From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy Implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects

Author(s): Marcin Koczor,Paweł Tokarski / Language(s): English

Polish Institute of International Affairs published a report "From Lisbon to Europe 2020. Lisbon Strategy implementation in 2010: Assessments and Prospects" by Marcin Koczor and Paweł Tokarski. The publication contains the evaluation of the implementation of the Lisbon Strategy for 2010, a summary of the entire duration of the strategy and describes the place of the current EU economic strategy, Europe 2020, in the process of economic governance reform. The report also includes conclusions and recommendations for the current strategy – Europe 2020.

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Israel and the Kurdish Question

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Relations with the Kurds are an important element of Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. It particularly applies to Israel’s relations with Iraqi Kurds, who are considered important regional allies. Israel is the only state in the region that openly endorsed the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum and perceives the establishment of a Kurdish state as a chance to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. Israeli policy towards the Kurds remains closely linked to relations between Israel and Turkey and Iran.

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Context and Scenarios after the Referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Regardless of whether the referendum on Iraqi Kurdistan’s independence takes place as planned on 25 September, its result is known: most Iraqi Kurds will vote in favour of independence. Depending on how the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) uses the result, a negative scenario—the outbreak of violence and further disintegration of Iraq—is still more probable than a positive one that would lead to incremental, peaceful negotiations with the central authorities in Baghdad on greater Kurdish independence. The pressure from regional allies of the Kurds, the U.S., EU, and the UN, seems to be intense enough to stop the Iraqi Kurds from unilaterally declaring independence even if they go ahead with the referendum.

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EGTCs: Assessment and Prospects

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.

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Cyprus Reunification Talks: Conclusions for the EU

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Reunification of Cyprus is in EU countries’ interests. It would contribute to reinforcing stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region, benefit EU energy security, and help shape a new model of EU-Turkey relations. Thus, the EU should consider increasing its engagement in the reunification talks. It could play the role of guarantor of an agreement, as well as diminish Cypriot fears about security. Poland’s government could promote an intra-EU debate on that subject.

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Donbas Trade Blockade Poses a Challenge to Ukrainian Authorities

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s ad-hoc decision to authorise the trade blockade of Russia-occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions was taken to diminish the risk of political instability in the country. However, the blockade will not solve the problem of the lack of a coherent state policy towards that area and poses a challenge to Ukraine’s energy security. Poland, for its part, has instruments it can use to support the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy system.

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Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.

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German Proposals for Increased Control of Online Media after the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Miłosława Fijałkowska / Language(s): English

The 2016 U.S. presidential election showed that the fight for voters on social media may have resulted in the spread of false information, propaganda and disinformation. In Germany’s upcoming election campaign, a similar scenario may unfold. To prevent it, the German government intends to take preventive measures, but against new forms of online threats they may prove insufficient.

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The Visegrad Group in Czech Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Czech Republic sees the Visegrad Group as a platform to build regional economic ties and an ad hoc political alliance, mainly, at present, as an instrument of collective opposition to mandatory migrant quotas proposed by the European Commission. Czech policy in the V4 is based on the principle that cooperation within the group cannot take place at the expense of close relations with Germany, nor can it become a policy of sustained opposition to European integration. The parliamentary election scheduled for autumn 2017, and the related focus of Czech politicians on internal matters, will reduce their activity in international forums, including the V4.

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The Visegrad Group from Hungary’s Perspective

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In the debate on the challenges facing Europe, Hungary’s ambition is to use the Visegrad Group (V4) to become a leader of a conservative political movement in the EU. Hungary has also strengthened its position within the group, in part due to the government’s firm position aimed at diminishing the effects of the migration crisis. The rejection of compulsory refugee quotas has unified the V4, due to which the EU might view Hungary as the driving force of the group. At the same time, the close similarity between Polish and Hungarian government positions on several issues enables Hungary to take advantage of the potential of Poland to reinforce its political position in the EU.

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Turkey’s New Anti-PKK Strategy: Consequences and Feasibility

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The Turkish government, empowered further by the state of emergency, adopted a new strategy in its fight with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The declared goal is the total liquidation of the PKK. It will contribute to deepening political polarisation at home while in the regional dimension it may lead to greater Turkish involvement in Iraq and Syria. It is also possible that the strategy will intensify the tension between Turkey and its Western allies. Both the situation in Turkey and in the region make the achievement of the Turkish politicians’ goal dubious.

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Turkey after the Failed 15 July Coup: A Challenge for the EU and the U.S.

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy after the failed coup raises concerns for the European Union and the United States. Current developments in Turkey increase the political costs of Western leaders’ closer cooperation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. At the same time, Turkey accuses its allies of hypocrisy and a lack of understanding. Thus, relations between Turkey and its Western allies remain at an impasse, which could force Turkish decision-makers to look for alternative solutions in the political and security spheres. This constitutes a challenge for the EU and the United States, especially in the face of a deterioration of relations with Russia and the migrant crisis.

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