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СРАВНИТЕЛЕН АНАЛИЗ НА ВОДЕЩИ МОДЕЛИ ЗА ОЦЕНКА НА ФИНАНСОВИ АКТИВИ, ОСНОВАНИ НА ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕТО

СРАВНИТЕЛЕН АНАЛИЗ НА ВОДЕЩИ МОДЕЛИ ЗА ОЦЕНКА НА ФИНАНСОВИ АКТИВИ, ОСНОВАНИ НА ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЕТО

Author(s): Stoyan Prodanov,Tsvetan Pavlov / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2016

The article analyzes in depth the consumption-based asset pricing models, and displays most perspective contemporary trends in the field. A conceptual framework of models has been originally presented linking macroeconomic and financial relationships, and mathematical basis of the classic CCAPM has been developed. The paper also brings out the leading approaches for modification of the basic model, overcoming some of its shortcomings, and analyzes the advantages, disadvantages and the ability of consumption-based modern models to recreate empirical correlations in profitability and the risk of financial assets. The leading conclusion of the article is that there is still no convincing rational consensus model to reproduce adequately the characteristics of financial markets. From an econometric perspective, the closest in this endeavour is the model of long-term risk of Bansal and Yaron (2004) and its modifications.

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ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ НА ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКИТЕ ФИНАНСИ ПРИ МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА БЪЛГАРСКАТА РИСКОВА ПРЕМИЯ НА АКЦИИТЕ

ПРИЛОЖЕНИЕ НА ПОВЕДЕНЧЕСКИТЕ ФИНАНСИ ПРИ МОДЕЛИРАНЕ НА БЪЛГАРСКАТА РИСКОВА ПРЕМИЯ НА АКЦИИТЕ

Author(s): Tsvetan Pavlov / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 2/2015

The paper seeks a plausible explanation of the magnitude of equity risk premium, by modeling leading behavioral concepts in the conditions of Bulgarian capital market. Firstly, the fair equity risk premium is derived by basic neoclassical consumption-based model. Subsequently, the conducted comparison between fair and empirical risk premium indicates that the demanded compensation by investors for owning Bulgarian stocks cannot be rationally explained, i.e. there is an equity risk premium puzzle on BSE. On this basis, we have applied a behavioral model based on two well-known characteristics of human behavior in conditions of risk and uncertainty – loss aversion and narrow framing. Set at reasonable levels of risk and loss aversion, the model has managed to generate risk-free rate and market returns close to empirical levels.

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Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

Author(s): Najmudin Najmudin,Diana Hashim Syarif,Sugeng Wahyudi,Harjum Muharam / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2017

Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

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Проекции на ислямските финанси

Проекции на ислямските финанси

Author(s): Sava Hristov Dimov / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 01 BG/2018

This tudy is devoted to the quality of the loas, extenden by commercial bank in Bulgaria in the period 2007 - March 2017. The dynamic of quality of bank loas has been analysed by researching some key indicator of the state of credit portfolios.

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Nowe rozwiązania regulacyjne – RIA, sandbox, compliance, RegTech – w świetle procesu „inflacji” prawa finansowego

Nowe rozwiązania regulacyjne – RIA, sandbox, compliance, RegTech – w świetle procesu „inflacji” prawa finansowego

Author(s): Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak / Language(s): Polish Issue: 1/2018

The author discusses some new regulatory tech‑nologies which aim at increasing regulatory and implementation standards in finan‑cial services industry. Four types of regulatory technologies are described: RegulatoryImpact Assessment (RIA), sandbox, compliance and regulatory technology (RegTech).The author begins with explaining the rationale behind the development of regu‑latory standards and the scope of legal requirements in financial sector. Next, eachregulatory technology is analysed and assessed.

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Capital Structure in Emerging Markets: The Case of Serbian Joint-Stock Companies

Author(s): Sasho Arsov / Language(s): English Issue: 1-2/2016

This paper is an attempt to extend the empirical research on the capital structure theory to a post-transition economy and to determine if there are any factors that could be linked to the behavior of the companies with respect to their selection of the sources of financing. The study is based on a sample of joint-stock companies, most frequently traded on the Belgrade Stock Exchange, and using their financial data for a period of 6 years, it applies a panel regression model. The regression results show that the leverage of the analyzed companies is positively related to their size and inversely related to the tangibility of their assets, profitability and the effective corporate tax rate. Surprisingly, no relation has been found between the level of fixed-asset investments and the use of debt. These results do not give sufficient support for any of the capital structure theories, but the closest match is some form of a modified pecking order

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Szacowanie efektu dywersyfikacji w Solvency II przy niepewnej strukturze zależności

Szacowanie efektu dywersyfikacji w Solvency II przy niepewnej strukturze zależności

Author(s): Stanisław Wanat,Ryszard Konieczny / Language(s): English Issue: 4 (33)/2017

The paper focuses on the problem of the accurate estimation of the diversification effect in the process of determining Solvency Capital Requirements (SCRs) in Solvency II. First, the method of determining SCRs in Solvency II is briefly characterised, the role of dependences for the correct specification of the diversification effect is presented, and a diversification ratio is defined. This is followed by an analysis of the use of this ratio of the diversification effect sensitivity to the dependence structure based on an example of life and health underwriting risk. The cases of lacking knowledge, partial knowledge (of a correlation coefficient only) and full knowledge are considered (it has been assumed that variables are independent and comonotonic). Dependence structures are modelled using copulas. The article shows that without identifying the actual dependence structure, the application of the standard formula in accordance with Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2015/35 may lead to the incorrect estimation of the diversification effect, and it indicates (based on a simulation analysis) the size of possible errors.

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Synthetic versus Physical Exchange Traded Funds. Spillover and Asymmetric - Volatility Effects
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Synthetic versus Physical Exchange Traded Funds. Spillover and Asymmetric - Volatility Effects

Author(s): Askar Koshoev / Language(s): English Issue: 17/2018

Earning popularity synthetic exchange-traded funds which track their benchmarks by taking positions in derivative contracts are subjects of many debates concerning potential negative effects they may cause. At the moment, available empirical resultsare scarce and ambiguous. This research investigates the impact of synthetic funds on the stock market by comparing them to their physical alternatives. The spillover and asymmetric volatility effects were identified and analyzed by the deployment of the EGARCH-M-ARMA model. Local legislation on the Chinese market caused the creation of several physical and synthetic ETFs which track same benchmarks. This unique conditions can be employed in order to examine the effects of synthetic ETFs on the market. The sample of this study comprises ETFs which track Chinese A-shares but are listed or cross-listing in Hong Kong or New York stock exchanges. This study broadens the knowledge about synthetic ETFs and their relationships with the markets. Spillover and asymmetric-volatility effects are tested for ETFs, their respective benchmark indices, and general markets indices. The results do not reveal clear evidence that Synthetic ETFs have an impact on the stock markets.

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Does Bitcoin Follow the Market Conditions Anymore?
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Does Bitcoin Follow the Market Conditions Anymore?

Author(s): Harun ERCAN / Language(s): English Issue: 2(18)/2018

Recent research on the economics of digitization investigates the dramatic changes in markets by digital technology. Digital technology has caused significant differences in in the cost of storage, computation, and transmission of data. As one of the latest sign of digitization in our life, the use of cryptocurrencies has been drawing attention of all market players. Blockchain technology is recently reallocating resources, restructuring of routines, changing market relationships and patterns of the flow of goods and services. This study investigates the coherence of Bitcoin with the movements of the main indicators of different markets. Aim of this research is to clarify whether this cryptocurrency follows the market conditions or not. Because the movements of the market values of Bitcoin are aimed to be investigated to show that they can be used separately as a tool of risk management. For this reason, wavelet analysis has been employed to define cross-correlation between time series of the daily USD value of Bitcoin and some market indicators. Some literature asserts that Bitcoin has recently started to follow market conditions. If Bitcoin process follows the market conditions more than before, that if This analysis will explain if there is a change in hedging possibility of Bitcoin recently.

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Successes and Drawbacks of the Federal Reserve and the Impact on Financial Markets
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Successes and Drawbacks of the Federal Reserve and the Impact on Financial Markets

Author(s): Muhammad Mustafa RASHID / Language(s): English Issue: 2(18)/2018

The purpose of this paper is to provide an outline of the successes and draw-backs of the Federal Reserve and the consequent impact on financial markets. A review of the relevant literature from Hubbard (2008) and Dowd and Hutchinson (2010) will provide insights into the success and failures of the Federal Reserve and the impact on financial markets. Further insights will be drawn from; Gorton and Metrick (2013) and their interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s actions since its formation, Romer and Romer (2013) on the pessimism of monetary policy and Dyugen-Bump (et al. 2013) on their assessment of the effectiveness of emergency liquidity measures.

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Crypto Currency and its Susceptibility to Speculative Bubbles, Manipulation, Scams and Fraud
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Crypto Currency and its Susceptibility to Speculative Bubbles, Manipulation, Scams and Fraud

Author(s): Paul Barnes / Language(s): English Issue: 2(18)/2018

It is argued here that because a cryptocurrency has no intrinsic value, problems relating to day-to-day valuation and pricing arise. It is shown how these lead to the reversal of the conventional relationship between supply and demand and the susceptibility of the cryptocurrency markets to irrationality and speculative bubbles arising from the herding instinct. Also, as the cryptocurrency markets are largely free of regulation and the desire for privacy by founders, owners and developers is so great, accountability and disclosure requirements are either minimal or non-existent, leading to the manipulation of cryptocurrency prices, volume and market capitalisation information. Another consequence of their freedom from regulation, particularly surprising given the importance placed on their security through the use of blockchain, is the magnitude of thefts of cryptocurrency (both in terms of frequency and size) levels of which would neither be expected nor tolerated in regulated financial markets.

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Trust and Informality in the Indian Credit Market: A Snapshot from Recent Data
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Trust and Informality in the Indian Credit Market: A Snapshot from Recent Data

Author(s): Atanu SENGUPTA,Aanjoy DE / Language(s): English Issue: 2(18)/2018

Credit is very important in the lives of the poor people. The benefits of credit are manifold. Even after more than six and a half decade since independence, the extent and importance of informal credit have not diminished to a great degree in India. This paper aims at to understand the significance of personalized relations in the working of the informal credit market withthe help of the All Indian Debt and Investment survey data. Our analysis shows that there is distinct compartmentalization of the Indian credit market with respect to the disbursement of loan from various credit agencies. Each of these categories of credit agencies has some definite target group to cater to. Apart from this clear division of loaning pattern, the importance of trust, personalized knowledge and mutual co-operation in the informal credit market has also been observed.

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Teoria i praktyka rozwoju innowacji w sektorze bankowym

Teoria i praktyka rozwoju innowacji w sektorze bankowym

Author(s): Małgorzata Zaleska,Przemysław Kondraciuk / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2019

The aim of this article is to systematise the approach to innovation in the economic theory and to define the indicators used to measure the innovativeness of world economies. The considerations are focused on innovation in the banking sector as it is one of the most innovative sectors worldwide. The identification of the stages of innovation development in this branch is worth emphasising, along with the description of its economic and legal determinants.

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Znaczenie otwartych funduszy emerytalnych dla polskiego rynku finansowego

Znaczenie otwartych funduszy emerytalnych dla polskiego rynku finansowego

Author(s): Wojciech Wyszyński / Language(s): Polish Issue: 4/2018

Open Pension Funds (OFE) operating for the last two decades are part of both social security and financial market. During that time they were subject to many amendments, of which the reform of 2014 was the most crucial. They had substantive and positive influence on the development of the whole financial market and in particular contributed to the strengthening of the Warsaw Stock Exchange position and joint-stock companies listed there. Since the reform introduced in 2014 OFE are not allowed to invest in debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the government and that is the main reason for the engagement in the shares of the domestic companies at the level of 75-80% of assets under management. Unfortunately the OFEs did not contributed so significantly to the development of the markets for the other classes of financial instruments.

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Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies - legal and tax aspects

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies - legal and tax aspects

Author(s): Tomasz Słapczyński / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2019

The main objective of the paper is to provide an answer to the question whether new technologies such as blockchain that enter various spheres of public life are safe for users and what impact they have on national legislations. Cryptocurrencies, which are based on blockchain technology, can be used as a means of payment, investment or capital accumulation. Therefore, blockchain becomes more and more popular. The main research method used in the paper consists of the analysis of legislation and jurisprudence as well as linguistic and purposive interpretation which affects the functioning of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. The introductory part of the paper contains a general historical outline and basic principles related to blockchain technology. Real and potential threats posed by the discussed technology are also discussed in the paper as well as the question whether governments or, more broadly, the international community, offer sufficient level of protection against risks related to the use of new technologies such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies. Using blockchain to streamline logistic activities or to speed up transactions is useful in itself, but in the hands of private entities the technology may pose a risk of losing funds if not properly secured. The financial market is and should be supervised and controlled by the state which is the guarantor of economic freedom. Another vital question is whether legislators keep up with the advances in technology. It seems that the development of blockchain technology triggers development of new legal regulations. The more blockchain technology enters everyday life, the more legal documents appear in the form of case law, legal provisions, opinions etc. The role of these documents is to regulate, define and specify new technologies as they appear.

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İHRACAT KREDİ SİGORTASI, İHRACAT ARTIŞI VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

İHRACAT KREDİ SİGORTASI, İHRACAT ARTIŞI VE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Author(s): Müge ÇETİNER,Selda EKE,Ahmet Erdal Peker / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 4/2019

Export credit insurance is a risk management tool for exporters who want to secure themselves against commercial and political risks in international trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between short term export credit insurance, total exports and GDP in our country by using empirical data. Ex post facto method was used as being one of the quantitative research methods. Simple regression analysis was employed to test the hypothesis under the investigation.

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Podatkowe uwarunkowania podziału zysku spółki akcyjnej

Podatkowe uwarunkowania podziału zysku spółki akcyjnej

Author(s): Jacek Uchman / Language(s): Polish Issue: 20/2018

Praca ukazuje podstawowe zależności między systemem podatku dochodowego a sferą podziału zysku spółek akcyjnych pomiędzy akcjonariuszy będących osobami fizycznymi w układzie krajowym (system podatku dochodowego jest tu definiowany jako interakcje podatku dochodowego od osób prawnych (CIT) i podatku dochodowego od osób fizycznych (PIT) w obszarze podwójnego opodatkowania). Pytanie badawcze brzmi następująco: czy system podatku dochodowego uprzywilejowuje określone decyzje podatników w obszarze wypłat z zysku. Innymi słowy, czy są zależności w systemie podatkowym, przede wszystkim na poziomie stawek, które premiują zatrzymanie zysku, a nie jego wypłatę. Podstawową metodą badawczą zastosowaną w artykule jest, przejęta przez autora za wiodącymi pracami teoretycznymi dotyczącymi tego zagadnienia, analiza porównawcza konsekwencji finansowych wybranych regulacji podatkowych. Przydatna do oceny tego zjawiska jest również zasada neutralności opodatkowania. Skoncentrowano się na porównaniach regulacji wewnątrz systemu podatkowego. Zastosowana w pracy metoda badawcza jest dostosowana do analizowanej problematyki. Należy zaznaczyć, że pełne dane o odpowiedniej rozdzielczości dla kompleksowej analizy i oceny rozwiązań stosowanych w ramach poszczególnych norm prawnych nie są dostępne. Metoda porównawcza połączona jest zatem (jak to często ma miejsce w przypadku rozważań ekonomicznych nad podatkami) z wnioskowaniem dedukcyjnym i nieuniknionym redukcjonizmem. Jednym z podstawowych wniosków z przeprowadzonych analiz jest to, że przy wypłacie dywidend osobom fizycznym podwójne opodatkowanie powoduje podrożenie finansowania kapitałem akcyjnym, przez co może zniechęcać do emisji nowych akcji i wypłat z zysku. W badanym okresie zyski zatrzymane są w warunkach polskich lekko uprzywilejowane podatkowo. Analizując łączne podwójne opodatkowanie przy wypłacie dywidend na przykładzie polskiego systemu podatkowego, można powiedzieć, że łączny ciężar podatkowy podwójnego opodatkowania jest w ostatnich 15 latach stały, bez uwzględnienia występujących od 2017 roku preferencji dla małych podatników i podatników rozpoczynających działalność. Wykazano, że dla stawek i sposobu poboru podatków dochodowych w Polsce za lata 2004-2019 nie ma jednoznacznych preferencji do inwestowania wypłacanych zysków przez osoby fizyczne w porównaniu z analogicznymi inwestycjami dokonywanymi przez osoby prawne. Wskazano także, że dla osób fizycznych, mimo identycznych stawek w PIT, korzystniejsze podatkowo od wypłat dywidend jest osiąganie zysków kapitałowych, przede wszystkim dzięki możliwości odraczania ich realizacji. Tak jest także wtedy, gdy przyjmiemy, że również w przypadku zysków kapitałowych można mówić o podwójnym opodatkowaniu. Ukazano tym samym, że ciężar podwójnego opodatkowania jest z reguły większy w przypadku wypłat dywidend na rzecz akcjonariuszy niż w przypadku zatrzymania zysków. Uzależnione jest to od poziomu wskaźnika wypłat dywidendy, gdyż drugi podatek nakładany jest tylko na tę część dochodu, która jest wypłacana w postaci dywidend. Zatrzymaniu zysków będą sprzyjały zmiany w CIT wprowadzone w 2019 roku. Pozwalają one uznać istnienie kosztów podatkowych w przypadku własnego finansowania wewnętrznego. Powodują zatem obniżenie kosztów finansowania wewnętrznego. Pokazano także w pośredni sposób, że w porównaniu z podatkiem CIT znaczenie samego opodatkowania dywidend dla budżetu państwa jest nieduże. Z punktu widzenia polityki podatkowej w skali makroekonomicznej pojawia się pytanie, czy nie należałoby obniżyć opodatkowania dywidend jako elementu wpływającego na koszt kapitału własnego, co mogłoby stymulować wzrost inwestycji. Wydaje się jednak, że ostatnie regulacje w podatku CIT zmierzają do tego, aby obniżyć koszt podatkowy zysków zatrzymanych. Być może ustawodawca uznał, że skoro jest to ważniejsze źródło finansowania przedsiębiorstw w gospodarce niż emisja akcji, to należy wspierać podatkowo właśnie tę formę zasilania kapitałowego. Aspekt międzynarodowy opodatkowania ze względu na jego rozległość nie jest w tym opracowaniu omawiany.

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Teoria sygnalizacji w polityce dywidend na przykładzie spółek notowanych na NewConnect

Teoria sygnalizacji w polityce dywidend na przykładzie spółek notowanych na NewConnect

Author(s): Martyna Żyła / Language(s): Polish Issue: 20/2018

Zgodnie z teorią sygnalizacji dywidendy mogą być dodatkowym sposobem na komunikowanie się spółki z inwestorami i przekazywanie im określonych informacji przez zarząd. Celem pracy jest sprawdzenie, czy za pomocą zmian w polityce wypłaty dywidend spółki notowane na rynku o wysokim poziomie asymetrii informacji − takim, którego przykładem jest alternatywny rynek akcji NewConnect, sygnalizują zmianę wyników i cen akcji. W konsekwencji dywidendy mogą być sposobem na ograniczanie kosztów agencji przez zarząd spółki. Początkowa próba wykorzystana w badaniach składała się ze wszystkich spółek, które były notowane na NewConnect w latach 2007-2015, z czego wyłoniono spółki regularnie wypłacające dywidendy. Jako regularną wypłatę dywidendy przyjęto płatności dokonywane przez minimum 5 lat z rzędu, jednak dozwolone było zawieszenie płatności na maksymalnie jeden rok.

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Integral Assessment of Banking Activity Effectiveness and Rating of Ukrainian and Bulgarian Banks

Integral Assessment of Banking Activity Effectiveness and Rating of Ukrainian and Bulgarian Banks

Author(s): Mariya Rubakha,Lesia Tkachyk,Olena Hamkalo,Khrystyna Demkiv / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2019

The article proposes a method for evaluating and rating the effectiveness of banks on the basis of coefficient analysis. It is proposed to calculate 24 coefficients, which allow to estimate capital-resource, credit-investment and general effectiveness of banks. According to the developed method, the rating of banks of Ukraine and Bulgaria was formed. Based on the rating, the banks of both countries are divided into 4 groups: high, sufficient, low and critical effectiveness. The rating indicators prove the higher effectiveness of the banks in Bulgaria and generally the higher stability of the banking system compared to Ukraine. The study developed an integral indicator of the bank's operation, which is a tool for a comprehensive assessment of the bank's performance and can be used to analyze the absolute effectiveness and stability of banks in different countries. Along with effectiveness, the integral indicator includes indicators of bank capital adequacy and its qualitative characteristics (customer confidence, image, transparency, comfort and simplicity). According to the results of the integral assessment, taking into account the balance of coefficients in groups, banks occupy the corresponding position in the matrix, which indicates their class (strong, mediocre, weak) and the presence of problems in certain aspects of the activity.

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KRİPTO PARA BİTCOİN ve DÖVİZ KURLARI İLİŞKİSİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ve NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

KRİPTO PARA BİTCOİN ve DÖVİZ KURLARI İLİŞKİSİ: YAPISAL KIRILMALI EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ve NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Author(s): Emre Esat Topaloğlu / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 02/2019

Bitcoin, which is a virtual and crypto money, is a currency that includes digital transactions, technically expressed as block chains, and is not included in the central monetary system. The purpose of the current study is to investigate the relationship between crypto currency Bitcoin and exchange rates. The relationship between the exchange rates of the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Sterling, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Yuan Renminbi and Swedish Kron based on the daily exchange rate values for the period of 3.02.2012-04.10.2017 is investigated through Gregory and Hansen cointegration with structural breaks and Granger causality analysis. As a result of the analysis, structural breaks are seen in the BTC/USD exchange rate in April and December, 2013. Moreover, findings reveal a long-term cointegration relationship between the time series for exchange rates. One-way positive causality relationship is observed between the CNY/USD and the BTC/USD exchange rates.

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