The importance of personal finance for investment and applying financial behaviour principles in personal finance investment decisions in Lithuania

Author(s): Daiva Gedminienė,Audra Visockaitė / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2016

The aim of each state - to ensure social and economic progress, to increase the welfare of the population... Therefore various measures are fulfilled, which accelerating economic growth, enabling conditions to take care for residents own well-being.Personal finance has become particularly relevant for population nowadays so it is important to learn how to manage them effectively – the proper allocation of income and to minimize costs, to find ways not only to preserve, but also increase the value of personal property. Finance is based on behavior because somebody‘s costs, savings and investment leads not only the present financial situation, but also the expectations, attitudes and emotions.Identify the main financial behavioral characteristics and the factors that determine the return of investment, provides that personal financial understanding is formed on the basis of economic, psychological and sociological principles set.

Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

Author(s): Audrius Dzikevičius,Svetlana Šaranda / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2016

Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

Determinants of Bank Profitability

Evidence from Serbia

Author(s): Marko Miljković,Svetozar Tanasković,Jelica Petrović-Vujačić / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

Although the Serbian banking sector has not suffered major consequences of the latest global economic crisis, profitability of most banks, as well as the sector as a whole is at a very low level, especially since 2011. The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors which affect the profitability of commercial banks in the Serbian banking sector. Also, different theories of commercial bank profitability are presented, as well as results of empirical research. The methodology of research is based on an econometric panel data analysis. The analyzed sample consists of 28 commercial banks, while the observed period includes 2008–2013. The dependent variable in the model representing bank profitability is return on equity (ROE), while explanatory variables include a list of bank-specific and countryspecific indicators.

Uticaj krize bankarstva u Evropskoj uniji na bankarske sisteme evropskih zemalja u razvoju

Author(s): Boško Živković / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2013

Makroekonomske performanse, finansijsk krize i finansijska stabilnost

Author(s): Srđan Kokotović,Ognjen Radonjić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2013

This paper discusses the shortcomings of Basel II standards, internationally accepted regulatory framework for the banking sector, based on the premise that if each bank is stable, then the entire banking sector is stable as well, which reallife experience undoubtedly denied during the Great Depression and the current Great Recession. On the other hand, the new Basel III standards have taken into account one of the most important lessons of the recent crises that the financial institutions are subject to the systemic risk that threatens the viability of their business regardless of individual performance. In this sense, our paper focuses on the relationship between macroeconomic and financial stability. In case study of the the economies of the United States and Austria, we analyze the effectiveness of the indicators prescribed by Basel III standards that aim to timely warn economic authorities of the accumulation of the difficulties in the financial sector. Our conclusion is that these indicators, along with certain drawbacks, are undoubtedly a useful tool which can help the prevention of financial instability.

Mogućnosti i ograničenja razvoja tržišta korporativnih obveznica u Bosni i Hercegovini

Author(s): Nedžad Polić,Jasmina Džafić / Language(s): Bosnian Issue: 7/2016

Apart from institutional and legal framework, the existence of corporate bond market is generally conditioned by the supply and demand for these securities. Bosnia and Herzegovina corporate bond markets are in the initial phase of development. Therefore, this research includes identification of the potential and barriers in their development, analyzing the current situation and conditions and examining the potential of supply and demand for corporate bonds. It has been found that few companies have experience in financing its operations by the issuance of corporate bonds. However, it has also been established that there is significant interest in issuing corporate bonds in the future. In addition, by researching the demand for corporate bonds, we have found that legally qualified institutional investors have been interested in investment into corporate bonds of Bosnian companies.

ДАНЪЧНО ОСИГУРИТЕЛНАТА ТЕЖЕСТ У НАС В МЕЖДУНАРОДНО СРАВНЕНИЕ

Author(s): Chavdar Nikolov / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 1/2005

The first part of the article is dedicated to international comparison of the main fiscal structures, these of the redistributive role of the state budget. The fiscal model in Bulgaria has to remain in future on the edge between the “social-liberal” and the “social models”, which means redistribution of 39-40% of the GDP. Such situation corresponds with the Bulgarian social traditions and with the experience in the other countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The problem in Bulgaria is the tax structure with a strong accent on the indirect taxes, which is not social and quite differs from the tax structures in the EU countries. The development here has to be towards more important role of the direct taxation. The social security payments in Bulgaria have to reach in the next years on evolutionary way the level of 11-12% of the GDP.

ФИНАНСОВА ДЕЦЕНТРАЛИЗАЦИЯ В БЪЛГАРИЯ: ПОСТИЖЕНИЯ, ПРОБЛЕМИ, ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ

Author(s): Desislava Stoilova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 1/2005

The paper is intended to study the relationship between the fiscal decentralization in Bulgaria and the current financial position of local governments. The main purpose is to present the status, tendencies, and fundamental problems of the municipal budgets as a base for further analysis, conclusions, Assessments, and recommendations.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ ЗА РАЗВИТИЕ НА БЪЛГАРСКАТА БАНКОВА СИСТЕМА В РАМКИТЕ НА ГЛОБАЛНИЯ ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ ФИНАНСОВ ПАЗАР

Author(s): Elena Stavrova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 1/2005

In recent year many banking systems in emerging market countries have experienced a deep transformation under the pressure in internationalisation, liberalisation uncreased openess to international capital flows and technological and financial inovation. As several emerging market countries gradually open their banking market to foreign bank the opostion areas whether this process will help stabilize the banking system during time of economic futuries.

БАЗЕЛ ІІ – ПОВЕЧЕ СИГУРНОСТ ПРИ РАЗНООБРАЗНИ ПАЗАРНИ УСЛОВИЯ

Author(s): Valentin Boshkilov / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 1/2005

The importance and complexity of the new international agreement for the capital – Basel ІІ and its requirements, as well as the necessity of harmonization in the standards and practice of the credit institutions with these in Europe, imply fostering the collaboration between the bank supervisory body and commercial banks, intended to achieve better results, flexibility, and security.

СТРУКТУРНИ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ В БЪЛГАРСКИЯ ПЛАТЕЖЕН БАЛАНС

Author(s): Chavdar Nikolov / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 2/2005

The article analyses the structural transformation in the balance of payments of Bulgaria 2000-2004. The first change seems the rapid increase of the foreign trade passive. This is partially compensated by the inflow from the tourism and the current transfers. The following negative result in the current account has been covered by the direct investment, which grew up significantly after the NATO membership of the country. The concerns in the context are related with the growth of the foreign indebtedness of the private sector.

ПРИНЦИПИТЕ НА КОРПОРАТИВНОТО УПРАВЛЕНИЕ И УСТОЙЧИВОСТТА НА БАНКОВАТА СИСТЕМА В ГЛОБАЛНОТО ФИНАНСОВО ПРОСТРАНСТВО

Author(s): Elena Stavrova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 2/2005

Corporate governance is a process, consistent with the principles and practices of a free market and a democratic society. The reform, related to the banking sector enforces the financial discipline by strengthening the links among government, banks and corporation restricting banks to bring financial managerial and financial capabilities to the real sector. Banks are firm. They have shareholders, debt holders, board of director, competitors. They are more opaque than non-financial firms and frequently very heavy regulated. Because of the importance of banks in the economy, because of the opacity of bank assets and activities and because banks are ready source of fiscal revenue government impose an elaborate array of regulation of banks.

ФИНАНСОВ КОНТРОЛ В СФЕРАТА НА ПУБЛИЧНИТЕ ФИНАНСИ

Author(s): Valentina Aleksandrova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 3/2005

Control in the sphere of public finance is outer (supervision) or inner (audit) depending on whether it is done for the purposes of the legislative or the executive power. The system of state organs entitled to do the two types of financial control includes the organs of the executive power and those under the direction of the People’s Assembly. The Audit Council and the Agency for State Control are of major importance. The organs of the executive power carry out state audit on the grounds of their being part of the controlled system. This type of control has been studied in detail and a great number of research works are dedicated to it. Of particular interest for our study is the functioning of the organs of financial control which are not part of the system of the executive power since they are comparatively new organs with a new legal regulations of its status, competences and organization of their functions. This research attempts at giving a brief normative characteristic of the functioning of the Audit Council, the Committee for Financial Supervision and of the Bulgarian People’s Bank as main organs of the outside financial control.

The changing nature of transactions activity and liquidity in UK commercial property

Author(s): Colin Jones,Nicola Livingstone,Neil Dunse / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2016

This paper examines changing transactions activity and liquidity over thirty years in the UK. It reviews the multi-dimensional concept of liquidity analysis and demonstrates that it is not just a function of the time necessary to sell an asset, a typical real estate perspective. Instead liquidity is defined in terms of transactions activity. The paper then hypothesises that urban change and an increased information base has contributed to a more active management of real estate portfolios and increased liquidity. Superimposed on this long term trend it is also hypothesised that property cycles create rise and falls in liquidity. The empirical core quantifies the changing nature of liquidity and transactions activity over thirty years from 1981 based on the IPD database. It confirms the hypothesised substantial rise in liquidity but increasing variability in the level of transactions activity from one year to the next queries the cyclical liquidity hypothesis. This is supported by causality tests. Over the last two decades a short term opportunity driven real estate investment culture appears to have emerged stimulated by the increased churn of properties, partly the consequence of the pace of urban change. It has brought greater volatility to the commercial real estate market.

Analyzing The Working Capital Structure and Profitability of Supermarket Chains: An Evidence From Istanbul Stock Exchange Trade Index

Author(s): Bayram Topal,Hakan Tunahan,Ahmet Selçuk Dizkırıcı / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2013

This study aims to find out if any relationship exists between the selected financial ratios of the firm groups traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange Trade Index (BIST XTCRT) by regression and t-test analyses.Regression analysis shows that Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) have relationships with both Current Ratio and Inventory Turnover Ratio. Additionally; a relation is observed between Return on Sales (ROS) and Inventory Turnover Ratio besides another relation exists between Gross Margin Return on Inventory (GMROI) and Inventory Turnover Ratio for the group of companies of supermarket chains. T-test analysis indicates that Current Ratios, Inventory Turnover Ratios, Receivables Turnover Ratios and GMROI differ from supermarket chains and other trade firms groups listed in BIST XTCRT significantly

2008 Küresel Finans Krizinin Sektörel Bazda Şirket Mali Tablolarına Etkilerinin Analizi

Author(s): Fatih B. Gümüş,Levet Aydemir / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 1/2014

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of 2008financial crisis on financial tables of firms consolidating and comparing some of the company statements sectorally which are quoted on BIST before and after 2008 crisis.The distinctions was made by taking into account the connections between sectors withthe features and work–segments of firms. The non-continuous firms in the period of 2005-2012 with their extreme values which also affect financial ratios significantly, are excluded from the study. In this context, balance sheets of 59 firms from Food Industry, Metal Industry, sectors depending on Construction, Cement Sector which distinguish from Construction sector with its balance sheet size and financial structure, and Automotive & Supplier Industry are investigated. The data is interpreted by considering features of sector and conditions of our country. As results of analysis, almost all sectors are negatively affected in varying degrees and operating worsefinancial structure in post-crisis period than pre-crisis period. Especially increasing use of foreign sources and costs of financing with decreasing equity have negative effects on profitability

Borsa İstanbul’da Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Denge İlişkileri

Author(s): Fatih B. Gümüş,Atilla Aras / Language(s): Turkish Issue: 2/2014

It is aimed by this article to examine the short and long run equlibrium relations between Borsa İstanbul and some macroeconomic variables. The monthly BIST-100 Index is used to represent the stock market and (i) monthly weighted average interest rates for deposits, (ii)monthly money supply, (iii) monthly Dollar exchange rate, (iv) monthly Euro exchange rate, (v)monthly 1 ons gold London selling price, (vi) monthly interest rates on domestic borrowing, (vii) monthly SP-500 Stock Price Index Value.First, the stationarity of variables are examined; cointegtarion is found with I(1) variables. After the number of cointegration relations are determined with I(1) variables by Johansen technique based on VARs, short and long run equlibrium relations are found by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in Borsa İstanbul.While the BIST-100 Index rises (falls) in the long run when the monthly interest rates on domestic borrowing, monthly SP-500 Stock Price Index value and monthly money supply increase (decrease), the BIST-100 Index falls (rises) in the long-run when the monthly Dollar exchange rate, monthly Euro exchange rate, monthly 1 ons gold London selling price and monthly weighted average interest rates for deposits increase (decrease).

Empirical analysis of stock returns and volatility: evidence from Asian stock markets

Author(s): Nawaz Ahmad,Rizwan Raheem Ahmed,Jolita Vveinhardt,Dalia Štreimikienė / Language(s): English Issue: 6/2016

The objective of this research isto measure and examine volatilities among important stock markets of Asia and to ascertain a causal relation between volatility and stock returns. For this purpose six markets KSE100 (Karachi, Pakistan), BSE Sensex (Mumbai, India), NIKKEI 225 (Tokyo, Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) (Shanghai, China) and KOSPI (Seoul, South Korea) were considered. Stock market indices comprise of daily data from the period January 2002 to December 2009. The graphical representation of time series shows the preliminary examination of stock behaviors. The analysis shows the high correlation and heteroskedastic trend (volatility) among the stock markets in selected time period. After preliminary analysis the formal descriptive method of mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation have been applied for measuring and ranking purposes. The results show that KOSPI has the highest average annual return of 12.67% and followed by BSE with 11.61%, whereas, KSE 100 has the least annual average returns of 9.31%. The highest volatility coefficient of 3.097 has been observed in Hang Seng (Hong Kong) followed by 2.87 in Nikkei (Tokyo). However, the KSE 100 observed the lowest volatility coefficient of 2.078. Bartlett’s test is applied for the inferential analysis to investigate whether the equality of volatility is the same in each market return. Finally, GARCH (1, 1) model is applied which concludes a significant ARCH (1) and GARCH (1) effects and confirms all markets’ returns are statistically significant since p < 0.01 and their Long Run Average Variances (LRAV) range from 1.52% to 2.54% for KSE100 Index and Shanghai Stock Exchange respectively.

Прилагане на съвременните методи за оценка на финансовата ефективност на инвестиционни проекти в непублични предприятия

Author(s): Margarita Alexandrova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 1/2016

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of investment in real assets should be carried out taking into account whether the investor invests in a diversified portfolio, or assumes the entire risk. If the investor takes all the risk because they do not diversify their investments, then the cost of equity financing should be calculated with the Total Beta. Total Beta is significantly higher than the Market Beta. The cost of equity financing in public enterprises is significantly higher than that of public limited companies.The use of market beta in assessing the financial efficiency of investment projects for investments in non-public enterprises leads to incorrectly inflated estimates.

Individual mean-variance relation and stock-level investor sentiment

Author(s): Jun Sik Kim,Da-Hea Kim,Sung Won Seo / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2017

This research studies the effect of stock-level investor sentiment on individual stock returns’ mean-variance relation. Using unique buy and sell volume data of retail investors in Korean stock market, we find that a positive mean-variance relation is undermined among high-sentiment stocks, but holds among low-sentiment stocks. We adopt buy-sell imbalances of retail investors for individual stocks as a measure of stock-level investor sentiment. Further, our findings provide empirical evidence of a strong risk-return trade-off among stocks with low retail concentration (e.g., large capitalization, high-priced, and growth stocks). Existing research only analyzes market-wide investor sentiment. However, we study the effect of stock-level investor sentiment on individual stock returns. Therefore, our findings suggest novel implications about the investment strategy that the stock-level investor sentiment is important when constructing portfolios based on variance.