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The year 2018 started with a dip and ended with a dip. While the first encouraged investors to buy, the second sowed fear. With fiscal difficulties in France and Italy, Brexit plans going round in circles and a headstrong president in the US, recession became a popular topic of discussion in late 2018. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s economic policy suggested there was little to worry about in the future.
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Energy consumption and the need to continue on a global scale, as in the past and in recent years. Oil and natural gas will continue to be the primary energy source until 2030 despite all the alternatives to meet this need. As a result of this situation, energy resources will continue to be one of the most important determinants of the twenty-first century. In addition, at least a half century, dominance of oil in the field of energy will continue to. Energy experts frequently reported that the “cheap oil” era has ended and price volatility in the oil market will continue to today.The Caucasus and Turkestan (Central Asia) regions including the Turkish Republics maintained its importance throughout history due to various reasons. Today, however, due to the rich energy resources, especially oil and natural gas, they took part in the world’s agenda. In this study, the important actors of the energy wars and reserve status of the energy resources of the Turkish Republics in the Caucasus and Turkestan regions were briefly described. In addition, as well as importance of energy resources for the region and the world’s nations, beginning in the late twentieth century and growing competition over energy resources of the Caspian Sea were discussed today.
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The article discusses the importance and scope of the UN Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (Vienna Convention) and its contribution to the unification of the Law of international sale of goods. Although it does not regulate all matters relating to international sale of goods, the Vienna Convention is undoubtedly the most frequently used source of law for contracts for the international sale of goods. Containing substantive rules to regulate this, the most common, legal operation in international business, the CISG, 30 years after being signed, confirms its successful implementation throughout the world. The paper analyses parts of the Vienna Convention, as chapters of this article, through the prism of the views of leading international scientists, which were presented at the International Conference held at the University of Belgrade Faculty of Law in November 2010. The paper underlines current and outstanding issues regarding the application and interpretation of the CISG, and the solutions to these problems proposed by different authors. This article pays particular attention to issues of content and conclusion of the sales contracts, lack of conformity of delivered goods, and remedies for non-performance of the contract and the exclusion of contractual liability. In addition, the paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of international conventions as a source of uniform rules governing contracts for the international sale of goods, as well as the relation of the Vienna Convention and other (especially newer) instruments of unification, which may be applied to regulate this most common legal operation in international business.
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This study focuses on how the key competencies of employees are evaluated using 360 degree performance evaluation system. 360 degree performance appraisal of employees is evaluated not only from superiors but also from himself, subordinates, peers and customers. The main aim of this study is to evaluate six key competencies acknowledged by 360 degree performance evaluation system. With this purpose semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight bank branch employees and the data were arranged and interpreted by means of descriptive analysis. The findings show that seven employees’s performance is above the desired level. But one employee’s performance is below desired level. It is believed that this research will contribute qualitative performance evaluation using 360 degree performance evaluation process.
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The circular Economy. BFU. Burgas, 11 - 12 may 2017
The conference proceedings “ 4th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON GOVERNANCE AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT “ICGSM” are a collection of the papers presented by the lecturers and PhD students – participants in the 4-th International Conference on Governance and Strategic Management (ICGSM).
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The purpose of this paper is to reveal some insights for increasing the effectiveness of promotions. To achieve this purpose, first, the existence of multiple customer benefits of promotions is proved. It is empirically validated that promotions deliver three utilitarian (monetary savings, higher quality and shopping convenience) and two hedonic (variety and pleasure) benefits to the customers. Second, a structural equation model is estimated to measure the relative contribution of these benefits on the customers’ overall evaluation of promotions. The research suggests that in order to increase their effectiveness, promotions must be framed by focusing not only on their primary benefits but also on all other benefits with a significant contribution to customers’ attitudes towards promotions. Finally, a benefit-based segmentation is conducted. Four market clusters are identified (none-benefit, allbenefit, utilitarian-benefit and hedonic-benefit customer segments). Further, these clusters are profiled using demographic and psychographic variables.
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In terms of macro-economic policy, gross fixed capital formation, which is the major component of domestic investment, is seen as an important process that could accelerate economic growth. This study re-examines the controversial issue of causality between domestic investment, employment and economic growth using South African data. The traditional assumption of causality running from investment to economic growth has remained inconclusive while empirical findings on the investment and employment growth nexus are also largely unsettled. The study makes use of quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2016Q4 within the framework of the Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). The empirical findings suggest that a long run relationship exists between domestic investment, employment and economic growth, with causality running from economic growth to investment and not vice versa. The results also demonstrate that investment has a positive long-run impact on employment. The empirical evidence further suggests bi-directional causality between employment and economic growth, while evidence of uni-directional causality, from investment to employment, is also found. The major implication of the study is that although there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and employment, economic growth does not translate to increased employment in the long run confirming “jobless growth”. Investment is found to be a positive driver of employment in the South African economy in the long-run. The study concludes that, in order to stimulate employment, investment enhancing policies, such as low interest rates and a favourable economic environment should be put in place to accelerate growth. Measures to promote economic growth, such as improved infrastructural facilities and diversification of the economy, should be further engineered so as to encourage increased investment.
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The money is a widely accepted commodity, by means of which it is possible to determine the economic value of purchased goods and services and make payments.Over the centuries, "money" has evolved many times. Their constantly changing character, generates questions on their future aspect. In the reference to the cryptocurrencies questions are focused on their nature and compliance with the definition of money.
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When first published, the results of the stress tests performed by the European Banking Authority (EBA) gave little evidence of Dexia’s vulnerability. The test was based on the current criteria for Basel II capital (core Tier-1 ratio). Dexia was ranked 12th of the 90 tested banks, with a stressed core Tier-1 ratio of more than twice the benchmark of 5%. In turn, the equity ratio was only about 1.9%, representing one-sixth of the core Tier-1 ratio at year-end 2010. In other words, for every €53 in assets, the bank had only €1 in capital (see Table 1). Such a level of leverage is high, twice in fact the average of large EU banks.3 The leverage and difference with other large banks are largely explained by the calculation of the risk-weighted assets (RWA) and the definition of core Tier-1 capital, both of which painted an overly optimistic picture.
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This paper examines the relationship between interest rate spread and corporate bond market development in thirteen African economies comprising of Botswana, Egypt Mauritius Nigeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, Cote d’Ivorie, Ghana Namibia, Tanzania from 2004 and 2014 using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) in an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework. Subsisting literature suggests that in bank-based economies, interest rate spread could adversely affect the potency of corporate bond market development; and thus limits the financial market competitiveness. The result provides evidence that corporate bond issue, as a proxy for financial development is negatively influenced by interest rate gap in the short and long term. The result affirms the ‘group interest' theorem in these African economies leading to a deterrent in competitive financial development. The ECM coefficient satisfies a priori expectation, affirms the short run dynamic relationship, which implies long run equilibrium from the annual speed of adjustment, which is about 100 percent. The paper suggests policy recommendations for the reduction in interest rate, and thus the spread to encourage the growth of corporate bond issues for a market-led financial development.
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The paper analyses the feasibility of a common currency for the East African Community (EAC), which comprises Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The paper discusses theoretical insights on the benefits and costs of a common currency. It then uses the introduction of the common European currency, the euro, as a potential yardstick to assess the feasibility of a common currency in East Africa. The paper analyses the readiness of the EAC’s economies for a common currency as measured by relevant indicators. It concludes that some caveats are in order with regard to the feasibility of a common East African currency at the present point in time.
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The economic literature grants a great attention to bank performance analysis, expressed in terms of competition, concentration, efficiency, productivity and profitability. The main reason for this special attention is the central role of banks in financial intermediation. The efficiency and competition degree at the level of banks and other financial institution are difficult, if not even impossible to directly observe, because the information regarding the production prices (or of credit rates) are not available. In this paper we analyze the performance and soundness indicators of the main Romanian banks, compared with main banks in the Czech Republic and Hungary.
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Introduction. It is of topical importance today to study the ratio between the returns and risk of the Ukrainian stock market depending on the duration of the investment period. The relevant analysis should be conducted with regard to the markets of European post-socialist countries that have common features of development. Purpose. The purpose of the research is to define the influence of time factors on the returns and risk of financial assets through the numbers of stock indices (Ukrainian PFTS index, Polish stock index WIG, Czech stock index PX), the analysis of volatility of Ukrainian and European stock markets and the identification of patterns of their development. Methods. To conduct the research, the authors use the analysis of dynamic series, statistical, structural analysis, comparative analysis and correlation-and-regression analysis. Results. In the article, a comparative analysis of the volatility of the Ukrainian and European stock markets was conducted based on statistical research of temporal changes of stock indices. Their common development trends and differences, which can be explained by the peculiarity and specificity of the Ukrainian stock market, are revealed. The results of the analysis show that, with the increasing investment time horizon, the spread between maximum and minimum income returns is reduced, and the minimal income return itself becomes extremely positive. As the research shows, the peculiarity of the Ukrainian stock market is its significantly higher income return, which, however, is accompanied by a much higher risk, especially during the seven to nine year investment period. Conclusion. The Ukrainian stock market involves high risks, which does not make it attractive for conservative investors. However, it is considered to be a very attractive investment destination for risky investors, especially for a medium-term period of 7-12 years, since they may expect returns several times higher than at Polish and Czech markets under investigation.
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Logit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of several models predicting corporate bankruptcy. Such models have previously been mostly used in relation to European and North American markets, whereas here they are applied to the financial ratios of three firms located in Colombia. The main objective is to corroborate the validity of these models in terms of their ability to predict firm failure in the Latin American context, specifically for two bankrupt Colombian firms and one healthy one. The analysis is conducted using bankruptcy forecasting models widely proposed in the literature and used systematically in developed countries: the multiple discriminant analysis Z-Altman model, Korol’s two-function model and Prusak’s P2 model. In addition, the logit and decision tree models developed by T. Korol are tested.
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Business failure is a feature of any developed market economy. This phenomenon entails high costs, both economic and social. For this reason, attempts have been made continuously since the beginning of the twentieth century to predict failures of businesses. The interest in this issue is reflected in the application of increasingly advanced statistical methods. The aim of the paper is to compare the predictive capacity of nine methods used in the literature to predict the bankruptcy of enterprises. The empirical research was conducted on the basis of the financial data of 180 Polish public limited companies. Its results made it possible to state that the accuracy of classification of particular methods (and thus their rating) depends on the size of the research sample and on the length of the forecast period. It was also found that the rating of the tested methods tested does not depend on the method of selection of predictive variables chosen.
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This paper carries out a comparative analysis of the degree of financial development between transition economies and developed ones based on variables that indicate the direct and indirect degree of financial development. To determine the way the financial systems works and the level of its development, the authors have taken into account four general characteristics of financial institutions and financial markets which were measured for the financial institutions (mainly banks, which are the most important financial institutions in most economies in transition, insurance companies and other financial institutions) as well as for the financial markets, thus leading to a 4x2 matrix of the main characteristics of the financial system. The analysis was developed based on the data found on the Global Financial Development database of the World Bank. Empirical data and authors’ analysis were used to characterize and compare financial systems between countries with economies in transition and developed countries for the years 2008 – 2011. The year 2011 was the last year of available qualitative data for many countries in the Balkan Region such as Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia.
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Even though profits can be positively related to savings, when this is measured in monetary terms, there is no relation whatsoever with savings rates. In this research paper savings schemes in Mexico are compared and analyzed using data from Mexican savings and first-tier banks. One of the main reasons Mexico has a low savings rate is because of the country’s slow growth, whereas inflation is incrementing at an accelerated pace. People who save, which are considered as investors in banks, assume all the risks when they take their savings to any number of different renowned banks in the country. In contrast to banking institutions, who always end up having a benefit even when their investors suffer a monetary loss related to value of money.
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The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 plunged countries into a Great Recession and focused the world’s attention on the global stock markets. The global contagion has a major impact on global stock markets, with the U.S. DJIA falling to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009 from a high of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007, with a loss of more than 54%. Other stock markets also had a precipitous drop during the financial crisis. However, some equity markets have recovered while others have not. This paper looks at how global markets compared in their recovery. This paper also investigates the advanced countries’ recovery relative to the emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of the financial crisis and their ability to climb back to the pre-financial crisis levels. Analysis is provided for 31 stock indexes from January 2005 to March 2013. In 2013 the majority of analysed stock markets recovered from the crises regardless of if they belong to the group of developed or emerging markets.
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The main goal of this article is to compare data-mining clustering methods (k-means and fuzzy c-means) based on a sample of banking and energy companies on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. We examined these companies for a pattern that reflected the effect of news on the bank sector’s stocks throughout October, November, and December 2012. Correlation coefficients and t-statistics for the good news indicator (GNI) and the bad news indicator (BNI) and financial factors, such as PER, PBV, DY and rate of return, were used as diagnostic variables for the clustering methods.
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Most investors believe that left tails of the stock returns distribution are heavier than the right ones. It is a natural consequence of crashes perception as much more turbulent than the booms. Crashes develop in shorter time intervals than booms and changes of prices are significantly bigger. This paper focuses on the extreme behavior of stock market returns. The differences in the tails thickness of distribution are negligible. Its main result is that the differences between tails have been found in the clustering of extremes, especially during the crash of 2007–2009.
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