№104: Pulling the Rope: The Struggle between Official and Popular Islam in Egypt

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

As so often in the past after political upheavals, the state in Egypt is trying to get a strong grip on Islam. But it is only able to control the institutionalised element of the religion (“official” Islam), whereas the uncontrollable and fragmented form, “popular” Islam, meaning the real source of religious inspiration for people, is metamorphosing. The result of this process will not only determine the future agents of mass mobilisation but may also signal a broader social transformation in the Arab world in the long term.

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№109. 'Outsourcing’ de facto Statehood. Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova

Author(s): Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

The international community has been increasingly concerned with the secessionist conflicts that have marked the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The conflicts in the Transnistrian region of Moldova, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan are no longer ‘internal affairs’ of the successor states of the former Soviet Union. The EU and NATO enlargements have brought these organisations closer to the conflict areas and have increased their interest in promoting solutions to these conflicts. In the context of the international fight against terrorism, there are fears that the existence of failed states or uncontrolled areas can have repercussions far beyond their respective regions. The relative stabilisation of the Balkans will allow the EU and NATO to pay more attention to conflicts that are further away from their neighbourhood.

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№112: Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway

Author(s): Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Between 2004 and 2014, the number of Poles in Norway grew tenfold. Poles have become the biggestminority in Norway, bringing economic benefits for both countries but also social challenges. Whereasthe effects of migration for sending and receiving countries differ, there are many areas in whichcooperation could bring mutual benefits. Such cooperation based on the respect of the fundamentalfreedom of EU citizens’ free access to the labour market should lead to better integration of migrants.However, the biggest challenge in this respect lies in embracing the diversity of flows occurring withinthe free movement framework, ranging from short term stays to permanent settlements.

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№113. Just what is this ‘absorption capacity’ of the European Union?

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Senem Aydin,Julia De Clerck-Sachsse,Gergana Noutcheva / Language(s): English

There is a tendency in some political discourse now to say that, because the Constitution that was meant to prepare for enlargement failed to be ratified, the enlargement process has now hit a roadblock called ‘absorption capacity’. An alternative narrative is that the Constitution proposed some useful but marginal systemic changes, but its ratification was badly mismanaged by some political leaders. In the meantime, the EU has not experienced gridlock, and its current major political issues have nothing to do with enlargement. The case for a pause after the 2004 and 2007 enlargements is undeniable. EU27 will have to settle down, and sort out the constitutional imbroglio. However the plausible time horizon for any next major enlargement is many years ahead, maybe 2015, with various transitional arrangements pushing the real date in important respects beyond 2020 (e.g. for the labour market). The vague idea of ‘absorption capacity’ is better deconstructed into more precise and objective components such as the capacity of the EU’s internal market, labour market, budget, eurozone and institutional system to absorb new member states, society’s capacity to absorb immigration and the EU’s capacity for assuring its strategic security. All these issues can be discussed, but they are not static matters. Changes in public opinion may be expected to follow from new realities. The dynamics of enhancing capacities for change deserve priority attention. The ‘final frontiers’ proposition (presumably to the exclusion of both Turkey and Ukraine at the least) is a thoroughly bad idea, since there are well-established outer limits in any case to the map of Europe (e.g. Council of Europe membership) and to EU membership as in the Treaty of Rome. It would be a strategic blunder for the EU now to invent a new irreversible dividing line within this map between ‘real Europe’ and an imagined ‘other’ (uncivilised?) Europe beyond. The term ‘absorption capacity’ should be dropped from use in official texts, unless deconstructed into objective elements. Otherwise it is giving the impression of some pseudo-scientific and static reality, and plays into the hands of populist political rhetoric.

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№114: Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): English

Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. Themanipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontationalattitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. Tocounter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative basedon truth and common values.

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№115: Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

Author(s): Anna Pochylska,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.

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№116: Turkey’s Rise as a Reluctant Ally Faced with the Russian Threat

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

While actively contributing to NATO exercises and operations that confirm Turkey’s commitmentto the Alliance, Ankara has also actively avoided cooperating with the Western political andeconomic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine. Turkey’s low-level involvement, shaped bysecurity concerns, economic needs, yet at the same time its consolidating dependence on Moscow,and its optimistic opportunism, increasingly raise concerns about possible prospects of a Turkish pivotaway from the Euro-Atlantic community. But even while distancing itself from NATO, it may be inTurkey’s interests to rebalance its policy by supporting the stability of Ukraine and closer cooperationwith the EU.

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№117: How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

Author(s): Justyna Prus,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment supportfor the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars andUkrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatarscommemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to massdeaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority atthe peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet(including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Sovietideology.

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№118: Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

The revolution in Ukraine has shown that the difficult history of Central and Eastern Europe ended neither with the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor with the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Moreover, Russia’s violent reaction in the form annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas has set in motion a number of political processes, which have not only shaken international relations in Central and Eastern Europe, but have also shown the countries in the region that stability in this part of Europe is not a given. Thus, these countries, the vast majority of which are members of the European Union and NATO, face a serious problem regarding the further evolution of relations with Russia, not only in the political or economic dimension, but also in the military sphere.

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№119: Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

Author(s): Teona Turashvili,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

With the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga set for 21–22 May, Georgia is seen as one of the mostadvanced EaP members in terms of adoption of European standards. The country is quite successful interms of building a democratic and transparent state, which is both rare and sets an importantprecedent in the post-Soviet region. Still, such positive changes in Georgia are not irreversible, andmany reforms are only at the initial stage. The EU should offer more support, and encourage thegovernment in Tbilisi in reforming state institutions. Priority should be given to the justice sector, publicadministration, and local government in order to secure democratic governance and a fair politicalenvironment for further transformation. Moreover, the EU should also increase support for Georgia’scivil society, which is the most efficient “whistle-blower” in the event of bad practices such ascorruption, cronyism or use of prosecutors and the judiciary against political opponents.

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№120: Financing Climate Actions: Key to a Paris Agreement?

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

The Paris Climate Conference to be held in December may be the last chance to deliver a globalagreement on tackling climate change. One issue that could be a game-changer for the negotiationsand one that is inevitable to achieve global climate goals is so-called climate finance. The existingframework does not provide enough predictability and capacity to limit global warming to a maximumof 2°C. A clear mechanism for gathering public funds from developed countries and the inclusion ofprivate investments is needed to secure reliable post-2020 climate actions.

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№121: Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Although Central Asian states are vulnerable to the activities of radical Islamic organisations due to theweaknesses of their political and social systems—marked by authoritarianism, corruption, nepotism,and ethnic and religious tension, as well as their poor economic circumstances—interest in ISIS amongtheir citizens remains low. These states so far also have not become an area of interest for ISIS,although that may change. When some people in these countries do leave for Syria and Iraq, theirdecision is not rooted just in poverty but also in social exclusion and poor religious education. At thesame time, citizens of far more affluent and often far less authoritarian European and Middle Easterncountries travel in higher numbers to Syria to join ISIS. Nonetheless, a potential increase in thepopularity of radical Islamist factions will not only be a problem for the five countries of the region,where the authorities will try to use the phenomenon to strengthen their special services and raisefunds for border protection, but also for Russia, especially since people from Central Asia are mainlyrecruited to ISIS on Russian territory and traverse it to reach the battlefields. Russia, therefore, willcontinue to support its neighbours in the fight against such organisations by helping to strengthenborder control, support for local special services and by CSTO Rapid Reaction Forces. The EuropeanUnion and the United States should offer not only intelligence support and assistance in protectingthese borders against this threat but also economic programmes and development assistance that canbe used to decrease the factors that may contribute to the radicalisation of those living in Central Asia.

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№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created AfghanNational Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise astill volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, mayprove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA)are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA hasreached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by theANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receivea level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, theunstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence ofmilitias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may resultin the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by theAfghan population.

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№123. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the ‘gas OPEC’: What’s in the pipeline?

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche / Language(s): English

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s statement to Spain’s El País that the idea of a ‘gas-OPEC’ should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin’s confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an ‘interesting one’ worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a ‘gas OPEC’. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.

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№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author(s): John Todd / Language(s): English

The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

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№124: A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

The economic crisis led the eurozone to become a more deeply integrated area. The redesign of its institutional architecture significantly changes the perception of the costs and benefits of the membership of the zone. In this regard, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) are reassessing the effects of eurozone accession, by reviewing the set of arguments for and against further integration. The overall result of this review is still in favour of further integration, but successful accession requires comprehensive preparations from the candidates.

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№125: The Evolution of U.S. Immigration Policy: Implications for Poland

Author(s): Piotr Plewa / Language(s): English

Over the course of the last 50 years, migration to the United States has transformed from Europeanto Latin American, and predominantly Mexican. Increased legal migration from Latin America has beencoupled with increased unauthorised entries from the region. The major challenges facing U.S.policymakers concern their ability to prevent unauthorised entries and the repatriation or integration ofthose already in the country. With decreased legal and unauthorised immigration rates, Poland has lostthe potential to affect U.S. migration policymaking. Hence, it is worthwhile to assess whether thelimited benefits stemming from visa-free travel to the U.S. would justify the increase in invested politicalcapital required to secure one of Poland’s traditional foreign policy goals.

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№126. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an ‘ENP plus’

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Gergana Noutcheva,Nicu Popescu / Language(s): English

Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the ‘willing’ and the ‘passive’; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the ‘reluctant’ and the ‘excluded’. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. ‘ENP plus’ is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, ‘ENP plus’ could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an ‘ENP light’ model for difficult states or non-recognised entities. More precisely we suggest a 15-point programme for achieving a qualitative upgrading of the ENP, to give it strategic leverage, rather than allowing it to be seen as a poor cousin of the enlargement process.

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№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

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№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Both Norway and Poland have engaged in regional security and defence cooperation projects:NORDEFCO and the Visegrad Group (V4), respectively. Such initiatives are seen as a promisingmethod for reinforcing military capabilities in a time of deep cuts in defence budgets among the EUMember States. The record of NORDEFCO and the V4 remains, though, rather modest, particularlywhen compared to the ambitious declarations made at their beginnings. Both cooperation formatshave proved effective with regards to less-complicated projects, such as those involving militaryeducation, training or logistics. However, common procurement and real integration in some capabilityareas has turned out to be too difficult. Yet, these failures have helped to identify factors that maymake success more likely, and this result is shared by both NORDEFCO and the V4, despite thestructural differences between these two mechanisms of security governance.

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