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№244. EU-Russia: Divergent logics of communication
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№244. EU-Russia: Divergent logics of communication

Author(s): Alexander Sergunin,Andrey S. Makarychev / Language(s): English

This policy brief analyses the state of EU–Russian relations as seen from the vantage point of the summit held on June 9-10 in Nizhny Novgorod. We describe the political context in which the summit was embedded, the anticipations it evoked from the both sides, its outcomes and some perspectives for the nearest future.

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China’s junior partner. Russia’s Korean policy
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China’s junior partner. Russia’s Korean policy

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s long-term goal is to prevent the reunification of the Korean peninsula under the aegis of the United States and to weaken the US ’s position in the region. Its short-term goal is to avert the danger of an outbreak of armed conflict on the peninsula and the possible collapse of North Korea. Russia’s support for the reunification of the two Korean states is purely declaratory; in practice the Kremlin is striving to maintain the political status quo on the peninsula. At the same time, Russia wants to maximise its influence by developing economic relations and maintaining political contacts with both Koreas. Moscow does not view the denuclearisation of North Korea as one of its priorities. Its approach to Pyongyang’s nuclear programme is instrumental; in Moscow’s eyes, although the program poses certain risks for Russia, it also opens a number of opportunities. The course of the crisis so far has demonstrated that Russia does not have sufficient tools to influence the course of events. As a consequence, it has had to accept a role as China’s ‘junior partner’ in the Korean issue.

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Polish Experience in Reconciliation: A Model for Rapprochement in East Asia?
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Polish Experience in Reconciliation: A Model for Rapprochement in East Asia?

Author(s): Adam Daniel Rotfeld / Language(s): English

On 13 March 2014 in Warsaw, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) in cooperation with the Korea Foundation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, Northeast Asian History Foundation and Korean Embassy in Warsaw organised the international seminar “Polish Experience in Reconciliation: A Model for Rapprochement in East Asia?” The meeting aimed at fostering discussion among Korean, Polish and German experts about the applicability of the Polish and European experiences and mechanisms in reconciliation in East Asia. Special attention was paid to Korean–Japanese relations. About 60 government officials, experts, and scholars attended the seminar.

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Európai identitás
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Európai identitás

Author(s): László Öllös / Language(s): Hungarian

Citizen's identity in the modern states is made up of several components, not only of a single one. Therefore, the conception of European identity also must integrate several components of political mainstreams. And, behind them, there also must be different interpretations of society, as well as different images of man. The present state of Europe is a state of gradual lagging behind other regions of the world. Staying behind on national level, of course, cannot be a national interest, especially not in the age of globalization. Therefore, the real dilemma of European nations lies not in the maintenance of their traditional sovereignty or in their submission to the European Union. The real dilemma is whether they, standing together, will be able to overcome challenges of this age, or they will keep up the root causes of lagging behind.

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Barometrul electoral al municipiului Drobeta Turnu Severin
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Barometrul electoral al municipiului Drobeta Turnu Severin

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between September 4-6, 2020 on a sample of 1027 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometru politic national
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Barometru politic national

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted on July 17-23, 2019 on 1128 selected subjects from 114 urban and rural localities in all counties of Romania. He measured confidence in political leaders, voting intentions, comparisons between candidates.

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Russia's Strategy in Cyberspace
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Russia's Strategy in Cyberspace

Author(s): Janne Hakala,Jazlyn Melnychuk / Language(s): English

Headlines connecting Russia to the vague notion of ‘cyber’ have become daily bread for Western publics and decision makers alike. From the damage done by NotPetya or attacks against Ukraine and Georgia, to Russia’s hacking and leaking operations in US and European elections, Russia’s offensive operations are consistent threat. An increasingly important tool in what Russia views as the ongoing “information confrontation,” Russia utilizes cyber operations alongside other military and non-military means to pursue strategic objectives. On the other hand, recent years have seen Russia’s attempts to close and secure its own digital information space. By using a combination of legal and technical means, the Kremlin tries to impose control both over digital infrastructure and content, efforts which are aimed at ensuring independence from the global Internet network and thus enhancing their information security. Russia sees activities in cyberspace as a subset to the all-encompassing framework of ‘information confrontation,’ which is derived from the Russian understanding of relations between states and, more specifically, a subset of the struggle between great powers for influence in the world. According to Russian thinkers, the information confrontation is constant and ongoing, and any means can be used to gain superiority in this confrontation.

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Za zajednice otporne na radikalizaciju i nasilni ekstremizam! - priručnik za profesionalce u oblasti obrazovanja -
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Za zajednice otporne na radikalizaciju i nasilni ekstremizam! - priručnik za profesionalce u oblasti obrazovanja -

Author(s): Jarmila Bujak Stanko / Language(s): Montenegrine

Priručnik za profesionalce u oblasti obrazovanja Za zajednice otporne na radikalizaciju i nasilni ekstremizam! nastao je iz potrebe da se osnaže kapaciteti obrazovnog sistema u pravcu učinkovitije prevencije radikalizacije i nasilnog ekstremizma. Radikalizacija i nasilni ekstremizam ozbiljni su izazovi sa kojima se suočavaju savremena društva, pa i Crna Gora. Obrazovanje ima ključnu ulogu u prevenciji ovih pojava i to kroz podizanje nivoa znanja i informisanosti mladih, ali i kroz razvoj vrijednosti, stavova i vještina koje će ih učiniti otpornim na privlačnost radikalnih I ektremističkih grupa i propagande.

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LIBERAL WESTERN BALKANS ON THE MOVE: YOUTH IN LIBERAL POLITICAL PARTIES
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LIBERAL WESTERN BALKANS ON THE MOVE: YOUTH IN LIBERAL POLITICAL PARTIES

Author(s): Adisa Memišević,Anela Lemeš,Valida Repovac Nikšić / Language(s): English

This research focused on liberal parties in the Western Balkans region and their strategies for the advancement and promotion of political participation of the youth, not just within the party but also in their respective countries. The aim of this analysis was to review the current standpoints on youth representation in politics in the liberal political parties of the Western Balkans, to map their roles and strategies for advancement of youth political inclusion, and to raise the visibility of successful regional examples. Political, legal and policy contexts and frameworks in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia were reviewed and assessed through the analysis of their quota systems, as well as through the overview of current youth representation in the parliaments of WB countries. Previous research indicates that political parties often do not support young politicians’ participation in the processes of political program development, despite having adopted youth programs and policies. The research was conceptualized as a case study of four liberal parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia and their strategies for development and promotion of political participation of the youth within the party, as well as in their respective countries. Comparative analysis was conducted using a mixed methods approach, combining qualitative analysis of primary and secondary data and quantitative analysis of primary data collection to triangulate the information to the extent possible. In order to develop the new regional story, we need this research to examine intra-party democracy in these liberal parties, map their current views on youth and politics and see what types of activities could be introduced and adjusted to the needs of their parties and party systems.

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LIBERALNI ZAPADNI BALKAN U POKRETU: MLADI U LIBERALNIM POLITIČKIM STRANKAMA
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LIBERALNI ZAPADNI BALKAN U POKRETU: MLADI U LIBERALNIM POLITIČKIM STRANKAMA

Author(s): Adisa Memišević,Anela Lemeš,Valida Repovac Nikšić / Language(s): Bosnian

Fokus ovog istraživanja su liberalne stranke Zapadnog Balkana i njihove strategije za unapređenje i promociju političke participacije mladih, ne samo unutar stranaka, već i u njihovim zemljama. Cilj ove analize bio je sagledati trenutna stajališta o zastupljenosti mladih u politici u liberalnim političkim strankama Zapadnog Balkana, mapirati njihove uloge i strategije za unapređenje političke uključenosti mladih te povećati vidljivost uspješnih primjera iz regije. Politički i pravni konteksti i okviri Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore, Srbije i Sjeverne Makedonije pregledani su kroz analizu njihovih sistema kvota, kao i kroz pregled trenutne zastupljenosti mladih u parlamentima zemalja Zapadnog Balkana. Dosadašnja istraživanja pokazuju da političke stranke često u praksi ne podržavaju učešće mladih političara u procesima izrade političkih programa, iako su usvojile programe i politike za mlade. Istraživanje je koncipirano kao studija slučaja četiri liberalne stranke iz Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore, Srbije i Sjeverne Makedonije i njihovih strategija za razvoj i promociju političke participacije mladih ne samo unutar stranakaveći u njihovim zemljama. Komparativna analiza provedena je korištenjem mješovitih metoda: kombiniranjem kvalitativne analize primarnih i sekundarnih podataka i kvantitativne analize prikupljenih primarnih podataka kako bi se informacije triangulirale u najvećoj mogućoj mjeri. Kako bismo razvili novu regionalnu priču, potrebno nam je istraživanje koje ispituje unutarstranačku demokraciju u tim liberalnim strankama, mapira njihove trenutne poglede na mlade i relevantne politike, te sagledava koje bi se aktivnosti mogle uvesti i prilagoditi potrebama njihovih stranaka i stranačkih sistema.

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Energetický sektor České republiky
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Energetický sektor České republiky

Author(s): Filip Černoch,Tomáš Vlček / Language(s): Czech

This book addresses various aspects of the energy sector of the Czech Republic. There is hardly a more turbulent and more sensitive sector of the economy of the Czech Republic than the energy sector. As a result, its future has been carefully monitored by not only the political and economic elite of the country, but also by the general public. The book Energy Sector of the Czech Republic is divided into ten chapters. The first one describes the key actors and the legislative framework of the energy sector of the Czech Republic, including an analysis of the Government, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Environment, and other legislative and regulatory bodies and political parties. The second chapter introduces the rich and complicated history of the development of the Czech national energy sector. The following chapters familiarize the reader with the coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewable industries. Chapters are divided into sections covering history, legislation, usage, future trends, and key issues and problems in the sector. Chapters eight and nine shift the focus to electricity and heat; while they are not primary sources of energy, they both have their own chapter to make the book more comprehensive and cohesive. Finally, chapter ten considers the foreign policy dimension of energy security of the Czech Republic, especially with regards to the European Union. The book is recommended to scholars and researchers, as well as experts in the competent fields of study, but will also serve as a guide for those outside of academia who work with the topic daily, such as in public administration. Finally, the general reader can make great use of this book to get a thorough yet accessible impression of the Czech energy sector.

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NATO’s Polar Quartet: The US, Canada, Denmark and Norway in the Arctic
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NATO’s Polar Quartet: The US, Canada, Denmark and Norway in the Arctic

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

The name ‘Arctic’ comes from the Greek arktos, meaning ‘bear’; ancient people marked the north based on the position of the Great Bear constellation. Today, the Arctic is increasingly portrayed as a region, which lies in the ‘shadow’ of the bear. This of course refers to Russia, which has been steadily building up its military capabilities in the High North and investing in the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the extraction of Arctic resources. It also lays the most far‑reaching claims to the continental shelf around the North Pole.

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Assisted Assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s Policy Towards Russia
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Assisted Assertiveness. Changes in Bulgaria’s Policy Towards Russia

Author(s): Mateusz Seroka / Language(s): English

The Bulgarian public and elite has a positive attitude towards Russians and Russia, in part due to the historical and cultural background. This positive perception was not weakened by the period of Soviet domination. The pro‑Russian sentiment shared by the Bulgarian public facilitated the communist coup in 1944 and the ensuing Sovietisation of the state. Nor were the democratic changes initiated at the end of 1989 the result of the democratic opposition’s successes, but were rather down to the actions taken by the reformist faction within the Bulgarian Communist Party (BCP), a consequence of the decline of the USSR and the centrally planned economy model.

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Tell me more. Russia on Macron’s détente initiatives
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Tell me more. Russia on Macron’s détente initiatives

Author(s): Marek Menkiszak / Language(s): English

Emmanuel Macron took office as President of the French Republic in May 2017. In his statements, he has proclaimed the need to engage in dialogue with Russia and work with it to build an architecture of trust and security in Europe. This approach resulted from his diagnosis of crisis in the Western community and the growing assertiveness of non‑Western powers (including Russia), as well as his conviction that unless a modus vivendi with Moscow is found, it will be difficult to ensure the sovereignty and policy effectiveness of France and the entire European Union. The factors that have likely driven Macron also include a desire to promote French business in Russia, as well as an informal rivalry with Germany, which has traditionally played a central role in the EU’s political and economic relations with that country.

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The Non-strategic Partnership. Belarus-China Relations
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The Non-strategic Partnership. Belarus-China Relations

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński,Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Relations between China and Belarus have been developing intensively over the past decade. This process has been fuelled by Beijing’s growing global ambitions as well as Minsk’s efforts to modernise the Belarusian economy and to partially reduce its dependence on Moscow. Increasing pressure from Russia and its inability to build closer relations with the West (which was mainly an effect of violations of human rights and the rule of law) prompted the Belarusian regime to seek alternative partners outside Europe. The aim was to increase its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy, as well as to gain additional sources of capital and new markets. Given China’s great economic potential and its interest in developing cooperation, Belarus mainly focused on China at the beginning of the 21st century, calling it a ‘close ally’. The cooperation gained momentum in the early 2010s, when China adopted a more proactive global policy after Xi Jinping had risen to power.

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The Chinese Communist Party and Its State. Xi Jinping’s Conservative Turn
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The Chinese Communist Party and Its State. Xi Jinping’s Conservative Turn

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski,Michał Bogusz / Language(s): English

In accordance with the Leninist model, the total dominance of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over state structures is inscribed into the Chinese political system; the state structures’ sole purpose is to aid the Party to govern China effectively and guarantee the Party’s monopoly on power. The Party makes all personnel decisions, controls domestic and foreign policy, wields direct control over the army, and has the prevailing influence on the economy through the state-owned enterprises sector. It has no legal personality; it exists outside the state structures, in parallel to them, and also above them, acting as their binding agent, and also as the source of its cadres. The Party’s structures are also the place where decisions are taken; they also transmit those decisions’ into the complex and multi-level state structures of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The CCP thus plays the role of the state’s ‘nervous system’, and as such, there is no alternative to it within the PRC’s present political system.

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Türkiye’de Gençlerin Siyasal Değerleri
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Türkiye’de Gençlerin Siyasal Değerleri

Author(s): Mehmet Mazhar Yıldız / Language(s): Turkish

The subject of this study is the values of the youth. In the study, the political values of young people of Turkish and Kurdish origin were discussed and the differences and similarities between these two groups were examined comparatively. The political values of young people of Turkish and Kurdish origin were analyzed in three areas: political identity and lifestyle, approach to social life and institutions, and perspective on Turkey's problems. The research was conducted with a face-to-face survey on 667 young people between the ages of 18-30 living in the provinces of Istanbul, Diyarbakir, Kayseri, Trabzon, and Van, and interviews with 26 young people selected from among them. Young people, who were reached by simple random, and purposeful methods, were included in the research, first separated according to their ethnic identities and then according to age, gender, and education level. According to the research findings; there are significant differences among young people in terms of political values. Some of these differences are related to the ethnic origin, education and gender of the youth, and some of them are related to the dominant political culture of the provinces they live in. Again, according to the research findings, there was a significant similarity among young people in terms of trust in democracy. Differences and similarities in political values among young people have emerged as a result of multiple factors, regardless of a specific time or plot. When look at the political history of Turkey in this context, it will be seen that many developments causing social divisions have taken place since the establishment of the Republic: whether for ideological, sectarian or ethnic reasons.

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Exploratory research report on the information environment in a political and security crisis context in the Sahel Region
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Exploratory research report on the information environment in a political and security crisis context in the Sahel Region

Author(s): Adib Bencherif,Marie-Eve Carignan / Language(s): English

It can be daunting to describe media dynamics at the scale of a country, or even a group of bordering countries, such as those in the Sahel, given the profusion of what can be considered media productions and the complexity of the connections between them. The countries of the Sahel region are also strongly influenced by external media productions that are often locally accessible. Indeed, these external productions have an impact on the international understanding of the region’s issues. This fact in turn has a significant impact on the sources selected in the monitoring on the Sahel region. We are talking about a media ecosystem rooted in complex and fragile relationships of trust toward different epistemic sources and a relative understanding of the media world, characterized by practices of re-appropriation and information-sharing. Media systems in the Sahel did not wait for the emergence of the Internet to become decentralized, but intrinsically featured rumours and orality. The importance of local radio stations across the region is a manifestation of this today. Understanding this complex world requires an examination of the uses of the media, the messages they convey, the sources they utilize, processes of interpreting content, and the socio-political impact of the content in question.

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Information Laundering via Baltnews on Telegram: How Russian State-Sponsored Media Evade Sanctions and Narrate the War
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Information Laundering via Baltnews on Telegram: How Russian State-Sponsored Media Evade Sanctions and Narrate the War

Author(s): Martha Stolze / Language(s): English

Information has long been used as a foreign policy tool by the Kremlin. Most recently the Russian attack on Ukraine has prompted a new wave of research into the way pro-Kremlin messaging is spread in Western countries and to what effect. This study examines a specific form of information influence campaigns (IICs): information laundering (IL). IL is a compilation of deception techniques and thus has the potential to change readers’ beliefs and attitudes. Overall, the study presents a refined, systematic, and reproducible way to identify which current IL attempts target the audience of a specific Telegram channel, and which networks of websites are behind these attempts. It also asks which potential framing biases the audience could be influenced by and with what strategic aim.

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Virtual Manipulation Brief 2023/1: Generative AI and its Implications for Social Media Analysis
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Virtual Manipulation Brief 2023/1: Generative AI and its Implications for Social Media Analysis

Author(s): Rolf Fredheim / Language(s): English

This Virtual Manipulation report explores the impact of generative AI on social media analysis. Large Language Models (LLMs), such as the powerful GPT-4, can create highly convincing content that appears legitimate and unique. This makes it nearly impossible to distinguish between real and fake accounts. But, defenders can employ the same tools to more effectively monitor social media spaces. Careless implementations by adversaries introduce weaknesses that can result in accounts inadvertently disclosing that they are bots. As LLMs rely on prompts to shape their output, targeted psychological operations (‘psyops’) can provoke chatbots to reveal their true identities. The fight against manipulation is entering a new phase, but it remains unclear whether, in the long run, defenders or attackers will derive greater benefit from AI systems.

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