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Polska w wielobiegunowym świecie. Szanse i perspektywy rozwoju stosunków Polski z głównymi mocarstwami wschodzącymi

Author(s): / Language(s): Polish

The growing importance of the new emerging powers, particularly the BRIC countries, is one of the crucial process observed in the world system. Taking into account changes in global politics and economy, many countries are striving to reformulate their policies towards those new powers, and it is also necessary do adjust Polish foreign policy to stimulate the development of cooperation with the major emerging powers. The report of the Polish Institute of International Affairs presents the main constraints, challenges, opportunities and perspectives for the development of bilateral relations with Brazil, Russia, India and China. The mounting impact of BRIC on international political and economic relations confirms that more attention should be paid to relations with countries in that group. A strong position within the European Union makes Poland an attractive partner for BRIC countries, but, on the other hand, closer and good relations with the major emerging powers could enhance Poland’s stance in the EU and offer it more leverage on shaping the Union’s external relations.

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PISM and SAC Report: “TOWARDS A SMARTER V4”

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Polish Institute of International Affairs is pleased to present the Report „Towards a smarter V4”, prepared within the research project “Defence Austerity: a New Paradigm for Defence and Security Cooperation in the Visegrad Region (DAV4)”. The report is a long-awaited product of the work of Visegrad countries Expert Group, in which PISM was represented by director Marcin Zaborowski and research fellowsMarcin Terlikowski and Gareth Chappell (by March 2012 r.). The editor of the document is Tomàš Valàšek (Center for European Reform/Slovak Atlantic Commission). The aim of the report is to analyze prospects of improved defence collaboration among the Visegrad Group. The document sets forth principles, which should govern the cooperation of the V4, and proposes some specific areas for collaboration.

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The Eastern Partnership Conference: Towards a European Community of Democracy, Prosperity and a Stronger Civil Society

Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Ulad Vialichka,Piotr Woyke,Anna Zielińska-Rakowicz / Language(s): English

The paper is post-conference report of the conference "The Eastern Partnership Conference Towards a European Community of Democracy, Prosperity and a Stronger Civil Society” held by the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Centre for Eastern Studies, the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland and the European External Action Service on 29 September 2011.The aim of the conference was to develop recommendations for the inclusion of civil society activities in the Eastern Partnership. Civil society has been involved in the Eastern Partnership initiative since November 2009, when the EaP Civil Society Forum was launched to support EaP goals. After two years of EaP development, the Civil Society Forum is recognized by most of the stakeholders as an important and valuable actor that regularly provides expert opinion, independent monitoring and policy proposals to government officials and EU institutions. The situation and democratic processes in the EaP region still prove to be volatile and unstable, and therefore there is the need to further strengthen Europe’s ties with the countries of the region and to develop concrete mechanisms of cooperation between official structures and civil society on securing regional stability.

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The prospects of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans, AD 2011

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The Report assesses the perspectives of the EU enlargement to Western Balkans as seen in 2011. The future EU enlargement will most likely be different from its past experiences to accommodate new member states and will most probably will proceed in a case-by-case fashion, accepting one country at a time, rather than continue with its traditional group based enlargement. Croatia may set a precedent for future in this case. The speed of future enlargements will mostly depend on the candidates’ internal capacity to build effective administrations, solve or at least diminish intensity of bilateral conflicts, and indeed convince their populations about the prospects of EU accession. An assessment of the candidates’ ability to take over the acquis communautaire in the most difficult areas of agriculture and justice indicate that their membership may not be likely before 2020, hence it would come about under the post-2020 multiannual financial framework. Croatia successfully concluding its accession talks with the EU should be used as a case for a public awareness campaign, mainly for the EU public opinions, about the benefits and prospects of EU enlargement.

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Path to Prosperity or Road to Ruin? Shale Gas Under Political Scrutiny

Author(s): / Language(s): English

The report seeks to explore the reasons behind the stark polarization of the European debate about shale gas. Supporters of exploration and production from shale gas deposits consider it an opportunity to significantly alter the political and economic rules affecting Europe’s energy security. Critics tend to interpret the development of the shale gas industry as a threat to the environment, a challenge to the existing strategies of limiting the green-house gas emissions, or a competition to the well-entrenched economic interests.Thus the report analyzes the politics of shale gas, looking into debates in the select European countries and probing the activities of the EU institutions (the EU Council, the Commission, the European Parliament) in this sphere. The authors investigated a broad array of factors that influence the preferences of the key players: approach to the optimal energy mix, desired level of diversification of energy supplies, or the perception of natural gas imports from an energy security angle. In addition, the report highlights the significance of the North American experience with shale gas exploration and development as a crucial determinant of the European debate.

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EU and Its Southern Neighbours: New Challenges for the European Neighbourhood Policy

Author(s): Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The violent, unprecedented socio-political changes in North Africa and the Middle East—the stepping down of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, the anti-Qaddafi insurgency in Libya and people rallying for change in the other Arab states—prompt a revision of the EU’s approach to its southern neighbours. The present situation offers significant opportunities in this regard, even if the Arab transformations give rise to justified concerns about their further development and regional consequences.In the EU and its member states a debate is underway on the future of the EU’s policy towards the southern neighbours. The debate coincides with an across-the-board review of the European Neighbourhood Policy, the findings of which will be unveiled very soon by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton. This report is an attempt at an answer to the political and financial dilemmas of the EU’s policy towards the southern neighbours. It puts forward recommendations on ways to support states in the region in their process of democratic transition, drawing also on the transition experiences of some member states. It also points to actions to be taken by the EU and its member states to maintain a balance between the southern and eastern dimensions of the European Neighbourhood Policy.

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Role of “Panda Diplomacy” in China’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

China’s “panda diplomacy”—loaning the animals to other countries—has become one of its key instruments to enhance its image. Chairman Xi Jinping eagerly uses the practice to alleviate tensions in bilateral ties and reduce partners’ concerns about his country’s activities. What is more, China utilises this instrument both to signal dissatisfaction with other countries’ policies and to highlight the importance of a given country to Chinese diplomacy, as well as to acquire capital and know-how through joint panda research.

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Prospects of an Agreement between China and the Holy See

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China has signalled its readiness to normalise relations with the Holy See. That would mean both the underground and formal state-controlled Catholic factions in China would come together. For China, it would facilitate the Chinese church’s support for the country’s social policies, create a unified, visible church organisation, and papal recognition of bishop nominations. Normalisation, though, would also require the Holy See to withdraw its recognition of Taiwan as a separate state. The improvement of relations between the two may also benefit Polish-Chinese contacts, in which the position of Catholics in China has been a controversial topic.

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China’s Role in Hungarian Foreign Policy

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

In May, China raised bilateral relations with Hungary to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Hungarian involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy approach aimed at increasing access to eastern markets, attracting foreign direct investment, and further strengthening economic cooperation with China. However, so far, the cooperation has not had the intended effect. New Chinese FDI in Hungary has decreased significantly in the last few years and nothing indicates a reversal of this trend.

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New Electoral Law in Moldova Criticised as a Tool to Keep Power

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 19 June, the Venice Commission and the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the OSCE issued a negative review of a draft electoral law in Moldova. The government says the draft bill is the result of parliamentary consensus. In fact, it has been designed to keep the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) and its unpopular leader, Vlad Plahotniuc, in power after next year’s parliamentary elections. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that, if the draft becomes law, the EU will tighten the terms of financial assistance offered to Moldova.

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Russian Hybrid Threats to the Baltic States

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

How Russia has defined its strategic interests threatens Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. It excels in the use of a range of instruments to put pressure on the Baltic States and interfere in their internal affairs. Russia is also ready to take risky action, thus complicating NATO defence planning, which must be based on a wide spectrum of threats on the Eastern Flank. However, three general scenarios can be distinguished that should point the way for the Allies, especially in strengthening the non-military elements of their security system.

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Russia-Saudi Arabia Cooperation: Potential and Limitations

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Arabia and Russia promote contrary approaches to resolving the conflict in Syria as well as differ in their perceptions of Iran’s role in the Middle East. This splits in interest limit cooperation in the armaments sector. The new sphere of Russian-Saudi cooperation is energy, especially in the oil market. Russia seeks to use Saudi Arabia as an instrument to undermine U.S. influence in the Middle East.

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China’s Plans to Strengthen Relations with Germany

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

China endeavours to strengthen its relations with Germany by taking advantage of the strain in transatlantic relations. In China’s view, Germany would be the PRC’s main partner in the promotion of free trade, climate protection, and a multipolar world order. To foster the relationship, China is willing to minimize disputes with Germany and improve ties, such as by speeding up certification of German political foundations. Strengthening of China–Germany relations requires increased access to the Chinese market for German companies, which is only possible in a longer perspective. Poland may see some benefit from increased exports to Germany and indirectly to China.

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Three Seas Initiative: Benefits for Regional Gas Markets and the EU

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Central and Eastern European countries have distinct potential for investment in gas infrastructure to meet expected growth in demand. The “Three Seas” initiative will help coordinate policy among its participants and promote the interests of the region to strengthen energy security and develop a competitive gas market. Not only will Three Seas countries benefit from this but also the EU as a whole.

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Romania-U.S. Relations at the Beginning of Trump’s Presidency

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

On 9 June, President of Romania Klaus Iohannis, the first leader from a NATO Eastern Flank state, paid a visit to U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Trump acknowledged Romania’s contribution to common security, describing it as in model form, and ensured that the U.S. would respect NATO Article 5 guarantees. The U.S. president’s confirmation of existing commitments does not mean any privileged status for Romania, which, because of Trump’s transactional treatment of international relations so far, was expected by some Romanian political elites.

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Growing Rivalry in Asia: India Steps Away from China’s Silk Road Project

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

One significant delegation missing from the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing in May was India. Although India’s boycott of the summit stems from bilateral problems in its cooperation with China, some of its reservations are shared in Europe. India’s stance will not stop the Chinese grand project, but points to a growing rivalry between the Asian powers. The European Union and its Member States should continue to support connections between Asia and Europe but also pressure on parties to ensure infrastructure investments meet the highest international standards.

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ASEAN’s 50th Anniversary: An Opportunity for a New Opening in Economic Relations with Poland

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

This year, ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary. Established in 1967, the organisation has contributed to sustaining peace in Southeast Asia and to the rapid economic development of the region in recent decades. It is perceived as one of the most successful integration projects in Asia. Despite its rising economic position, ASEAN’s economic relations with Poland are unsatisfactory and do not tap the potential. Among the ways to improve the situation are to take advantage of progressive integration within the ASEAN Economic Community and to intensify efforts to promote Poland in the region.

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Prospects of Euro Adoption in Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Hungary does not have a clearly defined position on the adoption of the euro. While the central bank opposes the quick introduction of the single currency, the government shows it is open to it, leaving room for manoeuvre in case of political consolidation of the eurozone. Such a scenario would probably induce the government to decide on euro adoption despite doubts about its economic benefits.

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The Change of Government in the Czech Republic and the Implications on Its Foreign Policy

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

The Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), under the leadership of Andrei Babiš, won the election to the Czech Chamber of Deputies. The party’s relative lack of ideology and its position regarding the mood of Czech society and the situation in the EU makes it a flexible partner in a coalition government. However, allegations that Babiš defrauded the EU of subsidies have discouraged other parties from cooperating with him. Profound changes on the Czech political scene will not have a major effect on Prague’s foreign policy, but will have implications for European and regional policy.

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Israel’s Pivot to Asia

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

The importance of Israel’s cooperation with Asian states has increased systematically. The pivot from the West to Asia is focused on growing the economy but in the longer term might also bring political benefits to Israel. It attributes great importance to its relations with China, which could lead to disputes with the U.S., especially in the sensitive sphere of technological cooperation. The changes in Israel’s policy in this area may prove beneficial to the European Union.

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