We kindly inform you that, as long as the subject affiliation of our 300.000+ articles is in progress, you might get unsufficient or no results on your third level or second level search. In this case, please broaden your search criteria.

0.00 €

Illusions of power and stark realities: The second year of the economic crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

In 2016 the basic macroeconomic indicators of the Belarusian economy clearly proved that the Belarusian government failed to reverse the negative trends which occurred in 2015. The gap in the foreign trade balance grew, industrial production dwindled, foreign debt increased and the low foreign-exchange reserves continued. GDP fell for the second consecutive year and so it can already be stated that a long-term economic recession is setting in.The crisis has been caused by the failing, outdated model of the Belarusian economy. The country’s difficult economic situation was also influenced by external factors such as a substantial fall in the amount of Russian oil supplied at preferential prices to Belarusian refineries and an economic downturn in the world’s potassium-based fertilisers, which significantly reduced the profits from sales of Belarus’s most profitable exports. The Belarusian government, probably due to pressure from the long-standing crisis, has increasingly been referring in its rhetoric to the chances of improving the situation due to the development of innovative sectors (e.g. IT) and to the expansion of the freedom of operation of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, this has not translated into real reforms, even those limited to selected economic sectors. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka still fears he will lose full control of the Belarusian economy and is trying to maintain heavy industry based on large-scale production plants and dependent on supplies of natural resources from Russia and access to the Russian market. The Belarusian government is thus blocking the development of an economy based on strong foundations of economic growth which would be independent of external factors. In autumn of 2016 there was an unprecedented escalation of tensions between Minsk and Moscow which has yet to ease off. In this context, it should be expected that the crisis will continue in 2017 and the risk of an economic recession in Belarus will increase.

More...

0.00 €

The Turkish campaign in Germany. Rising tensions between Berlin and Ankara

Author(s): Kamil Frymark / Language(s): English

The influx of migrants to Germany and the conclusion of an agreement between the European Union and Turkey intended at stopping migrants from coming to the EU have shown that Germany’s internal policy is being increasingly influenced by decisions made by the Turkish government. The agreement might have introduced new dynamics to German-Turkish relations and brought about closer co-operation between the two countries but the situation became seriously complicated following a failed coup d’état in Turkey in July 2016 and President Erdogan’s response to it. Mass arrests and repression in Turkey are seen in Germany as an instrument of consolidation of Erdogan’s power, which is increasingly morphing into an oppressive authoritarian regime. Turkey’s plan to change the country’s constitution and to hold a referendum on it is perceived in this context.The three million-strong Turkish diaspora in Germany, of whom nearly a half have the right to vote, makes bilateral relations between the two countries important. Campaigns ahead of subsequent elections in Turkey increasingly lead to the transferral of Turkey’s internal conflicts to Germany and spark tensions between Berlin and Ankara. Recently, the dispute has grown fiercer because of a referendum campaign in Turkey which Turkish politicians are also running in Germany. As for Germany, the Bundestag election campaign has begun and public opinion is calling on the government to take firm action and to condemn the political purges in Turkey, which have also extended to those with dual German-Turkish citizenship. Chancellor Merkel has been forced to act with more determination towards Turkey while seeking an agreement regarding migration issues, security policy and the fight against terrorism. Her task will be made more difficult not only due to the Turkish government’s confrontational attitude but also due to pressure from the Social Democrats and opposition parties in Germany.

More...

0.00 €

Capital does have nationality: Germany’s fears of Chinese investments

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

The flourishing cooperation in German-Chinese relations is transforming into rocky friendship due to the increasingly strong economic rivalry between the two nations. Recent acquisitions of German companies by Chinese investors indicate that Germany is struggling to defend its interests in bilateral relations with Beijing in an assertive manner. Berlin is becoming increasingly aware of the need to devise and pursue a common EU policy towards China. It cannot be ruled out that the rising power of the Middle Kingdom will be a key argument when devising new initiatives within the EU’s industrial policy for defending Europe against an influx of investors from outside the EU. So far, Germany has been the main brake on progress, blocking the adoption of such solutions. In this context, there may be a chance for American-European cooperation, should the new US President Donald Trump be interested in pursuing a more assertive policy towards China.

More...

0.00 €

The OPAL pipeline: controversies about the rules for its use and the question of supply security

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

The record volumes of gas supplied via the OPAL and Nord Stream pipeline in recent weeks have been accompanied by controversy over the rules for utilisation of the OPAL pipeline’s capacity. There has long been uncertainty as to the actual content of the decision taken by the European Commission at the end of October 2016, the full text of which was published on 9 January 2017. Both the clash of interests between companies and states about how to use the gas pipeline, and the different interpretations of the impact of Gazprom’s increased utilisation of OPAL due to the new EC regulations on the situation on the gas markets in the EU, including in Central Europe and Poland, have been revealed. Uncertainty concerning the principles of the pipeline’s use has also been increased by Poland’s formal challenge of the EC’s decision.

More...

0.00 €

The European Commission enables increased use of the OPAL pipeline by Gazprom

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

In response to a request by the German energy regulator, on 28 October the European Commission announced its decision setting out the rules for increased utilisation by the Russian gas company Gazprom (and possibly other companies) of the onshore leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, i.e. the OPAL pipeline. This decision raises a series of questions as to its content, its publication procedure, the context of its adoption and its potential consequences. These doubts are aggravated by the lack of clarity of information regarding both the OPAL pipeline itself and the initial rules governing its utilisation (including its exemption from the third party access rule – TPA), and the present decision by the European Commission. As a consequence, the Commission’s decision is provoking conflicting reactions. On the one hand, it is being received (for example by the Polish and the Ukrainian side) as one that enables Gazprom to increase its access to the European market, which could compromise the security of gas supplies to Central Europe and the transit of gas via Ukraine. On the other hand, it is being interpreted as a decision which does not meet the expectations of Gazprom and the OPAL pipeline operator, which sought increased opportunities to book the pipeline’s capacity in the long term. Therefore, it is not known if and when the rules concerning the of OPAL as proposed by the EC will be implemented and, as a consequence, whether the EC’s decision will put an end to the process of negotiating the rules for the German pipeline’s use that has been ongoing for many years.

More...

0.00 €

Dreaming of normalisation. Germany vs. Russia

Author(s): Kamil Frymark,Artur Ciechanowicz / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and its propaganda actions targeting Germany have resulted in an increase in German society’s distrust of Russia and to more assertive political reactions. They have also translated into unprecedented, increased support for eastern allies within NATO. Posing as an architect of the peace process in Ukraine, Germany has indirectly become a hostage to the success of this process (or the lack of it). However, the involvement of both Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in working out and implementing the Minsk agreement has not brought the results Berlin had expected. This has amplified Germany’s disappointment with both Russia and Ukraine. However, withdrawing from this involvement would scarcely be imaginable due to the significant political capital invested in these actions so far. Hence the attempts to save face and the efforts to ensure the implementation of the agreement, as well as the temptation to devise its subsequent variants (which would be increasingly less favourable for Ukraine).

More...

0.00 €

Natural resources on the Russian continental shelf: Foreign investors sought… on Russian terms

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska / Language(s): English

In recent weeks, Rosneft, a Russian state-owned oil company, has signed co-operation agreements with three Western corporations: America’s ExxonMobil, Italy’s Eni, and Norway’s Statoil. In exchange for access to Russian oil fields on the continental shelf as minority shareholders, these Western investors will finance and carry out exploration there. They will also offer to Rosnieft technology transfer, staff exchange and the purchase of shares in their assets outside Russia (for example in the North Sea or in South America).

More...

0.00 €

Russia’s strategy towards Moldova: continuation or change?

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

The nomination on 21 March of deputy prime minister Dmitri Rogozin to the newly created post of the Russian president’s special representative for Transnistria and to the post of co-chairman of the Russian-Moldovan intergovernmental committee demonstrates the Kremlin’s increased interest in Moldova, and may be a sign of a change in Russia’s strategy towards this country. Other developments which may suggest a revival of Russia’s policy towards Moldova include the appointment on 5 April of Farit Mukhametshin as Russia’s new ambassador in Chisinau. Mukhametshin is a high-ranking official who had previously headed the Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo), which is one of the major instruments of Russia’s ‘soft power’ policy towards the post-Soviet states. The Kremlin’s growing interest in Moldova has further been confirmed by an unprecedented visit by Russia’s defence minister Anatoly Serdyukov to Transnistria on 12 April, and a two-day visit by Dmitri Rogozin to Chisinau and Tiraspol on 16–17 April.

More...

0.00 €

The fiscal compact – Europe’s ‘hard core’ based on German economic conditions

Author(s): Konrad Popławski / Language(s): English

On 2 March, the leaders of 25 EU member states signed the Treaty on stability, coordination and governance in the economic and monetary union. It will introduce new fiscal constraints and officially vest new competences in the eurozone countries.Thus, their right to coordinate economic policy among them will be sanctioned. So far, the Lisbon Treaty has only provided for organisation of informal Eurogroup meetings, to be attended by representatives of the European Commission. The principles introduced by the compact, if the eurozone countries are really determined to observe its provisions, will create a new way of managing the single currency. Within the next few years, the most indebted countries will have to carry out radical reforms to boost their competitiveness and adjust it to German standards. During this period the Federal Republic of Germany will most probably decide to offer higher loan guarantees to relieve these countries’ budgets. The compact’s political consequences are also of great significance, especially considering how the treaty was finalised. The eurozone states have in fact accepted that the direction for changes will be devised by France and Germany, and the role of European institutions such as the Commission or the Parliament may weaken. From the perspective of eurozone candidate countries, the introduction of the fiscal compact means expanding the scope of conditions they must meet to become members of the single currency area. In the future, a country, in order to adopt the single currency, will have to meet the structural deficit criterion, and also most probably carry out economic reforms such as unifying its fiscal system. These goals will be achieved across the eurozone gradually, in the subsequent stages of the economic governance reform.

More...

0.00 €

Gazprom’s position on the Russian gas market weakening

Author(s): Ewa Paszyc / Language(s): English

As the difficulties Gazprom has faced in recent years on the European market have multiplied, so more and more symptoms have appeared which may suggest that the company’s dominant position is deteriorating. The decision made by the Russian government in June 2011 to double the tax Gazprom has to pay on the extraction of gas, which was later approved by parliament, was the first time in many years when the company’s fiscal privileges were withdrawn.The process of Gazprom’s assets being taken over by private companies and business partners from within Vladimir Putin’s closest circle is underway. More and more frequently attempts are being made to challenge the company's monopoly in areas of key importance for the functioning of the entire gas sector, such as Gazprom’s exclusive right to dispose of the Russian gas transportation system and its exports monopoly. Competition from independent gas producers on the domestic market is growing, and Gazprom is gradually being pushed out of some of that market’s most profitable segments (industrial clients).

More...

0.00 €

The EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region from Germany’s perspective

Author(s): Marta Zawilska-Florczuk / Language(s): English

Germany is one of the eight EU member states which participate in the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region along with Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden. Germany had a positive approach to the EUSBSR strategy (Appendix 1) right from planning stage. This project contributed to the continuation of Germany’s co-operation with the countries in this region, which has been conducted since the mid 1980s mainly by German federal states. Germany is playing a major role as part of this strategy because it is the coordinator of its three priority areas. However, the German federal government sees the EUSBSR as a project to be implemented at the level of federal states. This has been proven by the great activity of three German federal states participating in the strategy (Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Schleswig-Holstein) and at the same time the low level of engagement from the Bundestag, the federal government and expert circles. Furthermore, federal states more often formulate evaluations of the effects of co-operation achieved so far as part of the EUSBSR. Still, the relatively low level of Berlin’s engagement does not mean that it is not interested in co-operation in the Baltic region as such. Germany actively participates in the work of such bodies as the Council of the Baltic Sea States or the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM). All German entities engaged in the strategy make its future attractiveness and the success of individual projects as part of it dependent on including Russia in the EUSBSR. As long as Germany has the opportunity of regional co-operation with Russia at other forums (for example, the Council of the Baltic Sea States), it is unlikely to become more engaged in developing the strategy and enhancing co-operation as part of this project.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine – Romania: a sustained deadlock

Author(s): Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

The decision passed by the International Court of Justice in The Hague in February 2009, which finally determined the status of the Snake Island and the delimitation of the borders of Ukraine’s and Romania’s exclusive economic zones on the Black Sea’s continental shelf removed the major dispute from the agenda of relations between the two countries but it failed to reduce their mutual distrust. The sources of this distrust include the difficult history of Ukrainian-Romanian relations in the 20th century which is still adversely affecting political and economic co-operation between these two countries and preventing them from being free from resentments. Romania is the only EU member state and neighbour with which Ukraine has strained relations, which have been seriously deadlocked for years. There are a few political and economic reasons for this. Bucharest’s actions taken with regard to the Romanian and Moldovan national minorities in Ukraine are interpreted in Kyiv as a threat to Ukraine’s national security, and Romania’s political and economic activity in the Black Sea basin is perceived as contrary to Ukrainian interests in this region. In effect, although Romania supports Ukraine’s efforts to build closer relations with the Western structures in the international arena, it cannot be ruled out that Romania’s support will depend on the resolution of bilateral disputes in a way which is favourable to Romania.

More...

0.00 €

German companies strengthen their cooperation with Russian gas suppliers

Author(s): Konrad Mazur / Language(s): English

Germany’s decision to give up the use of nuclear energy will force it to find a conventional low-carbon energy source as a replacement; in the short term, in addition to coal, this is likely to be gas. Due to their continued high debt and the losses associated with the end of atomic power, German companies will not be able to spend large funds on investing in conventional energy. First of all, they will aim to raise capital and repay their debts. The money for this will come from selling off their less profitable assets; this will include sales on the gas market. This will create opportunities for natural gas exporters and extraction companies such as Gazprom to buy back some of the German companies’ assets (electricity companies, for example). The German companies will probably continue to seek to recover the costs incurred in the investment projects already underway, such as Nord Stream, the importance of which will grow after Russian gas imports increase. At the same time, because of their debts, the German companies will seek to minimise their investment costs by selling some shares on the conventional energy market, to Russian corporations among others; the latter would thus be able to increase their stake in the gas market in both Western (Germany, Great Britain, the Benelux countries) and Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic). It is possible that while establishing the details of cooperation between the Russian and German companies, Russia will try to put pressure on Germany to give up competing projects such as Nabucco. However, a well-diversified German energy market should be able to defend itself against attempts to increase German dependence on Russian gas supplies and the dictates of high prices.

More...

0.00 €

Russia's development assistance

Author(s): Agata Wierzbowska-Miazga,Marcin Kaczmarski / Language(s): English

In its attempts to catch up with the global trend, Russia began granting development assistance in 2004. From the onset of Russia’s commitment, the aid delivered has increased fivefold and reached approximately US$ 500 million in 2010. Russian aid, albeit distributed nearly exclusively via international organisations, has been granted above all to members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In recent months work on the establishment of the Russian development assistance system has been accelerated (a national strategy is being prepared and a specialised agency is to be established). This move proves that the Kremlin attaches weight to activity in this area which is an element of soft power politics, the foundations of which Moscow is currently attempting to lay.

More...

0.00 €

Bulgarian-Russian games in the energy sector: an outcome is getting closer

Author(s): Tomasz Dąborowski / Language(s): English

Bulgaria and Russia are entering the final phase of setting the conditions of their co-operation in the energy sector. A new gas contract is being negotiated because the currently applicable agreements will have expired by the end of 2012. The fate of two major energy projects – whose implementation depends on good co-operation between Sofia and Moscow: the Burgas–Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the construction of a Bulgarian nuclear power plant in Belene with Russian participation – is currently being decided. Another issue ever-present on the agenda is the future of the South Stream gas pipeline promoted by Russia, which is to run through Bulgarian territory. The outcome of all the aforementioned discussions and negotiations will determine for years the model of Bulgarian-Russian relations and may strongly affect the shape of the oil, gas and electricity markets in South-Eastern Europe.

More...

0.00 €

Forerunners or scaremongers? Germany to abandon nuclear power

Author(s): Anna Kwiatkowska-Drożdż / Language(s): English

The German government’s final decision to abandon nuclear power as of 2022 has been expected for months. However, instead of calming the waters, providing solutions and answering the question ‘What next?’, it has only fanned the flames. Even the adoption of legal amendments enforcing the government’s decision by the German parliament (both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat) in late June and early July has not calmed the situation. It is more than apparent that these decisions have been made under emotional pressure: there was not enough time for accurate calculations to be made and consideration to be given to the consequences of Germany abandoning nuclear power. Chancellor Angela Merkel has so far been unable to fully convince the public that the ‘energy shift is a huge opportunity’ and that this process will be carried out on condition that ‘the supplies remain secure, the climate protected and the whole process economically efficient’. German economic associations have warned against a politically motivated, ill-judged and irreversible abandonment of nuclear energy. They are anxious about an increase in electricity prices, the instability of supplies and environmental damage. The government believes, however, that green technologies will become a new driving force for the German economy and its main export commodity. Before that happens the industry will have to increase its use of electricity produced from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas imported from Russia. This may be exploited by Gazprom which will try to strengthen its position on the German market, and thus in the entire EU.

More...

0.00 €

The EU internal market – a stake or a tool in European-Russian gas relations

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Since 2010 we have observed a new quality in EU energy policy. It is related to the European Commission’s more or less direct engagement in the bilateral gas relations of a part of the new member states – Poland, Bulgaria and Lithuania – with Russia. Although the long term outcome of this activity of the EC is as yet unclear it seems to be important for several reasons. Firstly it might increase the possibilities of the enforcement of the EU’s directives liberalising the internal gas market and specifically their implementation in individual gas agreements with suppliers from third countries (Gazprom). The consistency and determination of the EC in this field may be decisive for the future direction and depth of the liberalisation of the EU gas market. Furthermore, present developments may lead to an increase in EU and specifically EC competence in the field of energy policy, especially its external dimension.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF – unfulfilled hopes for deeper reform

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The Party of Regions took power in early 2010, after Ukraine had been plunged deep in economic crisis. Over the next year, with the external markets recovering, the country’s economic situation started to improve gradually. Ukraine’s economic stabilisation was also strengthened by its resumed cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, which provided for a loan worth $15.1 billion. The issuing of successive tranches of the loan was made dependent on the implementation of a comprehensive reform programme. The cooperation went quite smoothly at first; however, as the economic situation in Ukraine improved, the reformist zeal of the Ukrainian government started to fade, and obstacles began piling up. As a result, Ukraine was refused the third tranche, scheduled for this March, and for the moment the credit line remains frozen. Even though the IMF has numerous reservations about the Ukrainian government's economic policy, the fundamental condition for resuming cooperation is reform of the pension system, which the parliament should adopt.

More...

0.00 €

The EU-Ukraine Action Plan on Visa Liberalisation: an assessment of Ukraine’s readiness

Author(s): Marta Jaroszewicz / Language(s): English

The Action Plan on visas adopted during the recent EU-Ukraine summit is a success for Ukraine. It is the first time that Kyiv has succeeded in obtaining a definition of the conditions and criteria whose fulfilment will enable Ukraine to apply for the lifting of EU visas for its citizens. Ukraine's strong point has been its political will; the lifting of this visa regime has been a priority for all Ukrainian governments since 2005. Since Viktor Yanukovych became president, Ukraine has adopted or prepared key legal acts that brought it nearer to European standards in the area of border and migration management. One of Kyiv's strengths is also its relatively well reformed and efficiently managed border service. Moreover, illegal transit migration via Ukraine is decreasing, and fewer Ukrainians are trying to enter or stay in the EU illegally. Also, Kyiv has efficiently implemented the EU-Ukraine readmission agreement.

More...

0.00 €

Ukraine and Russia: a hindered rapprochement

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

The policy of rapprochement with Russia that President Victor Yanukovych and his entourage had been actively promoting in the first months of his presidency has slowed down notably. One of the reasons for this lowered pace is that current talks between Russia and Ukraine concern the spheres in which Kyiv is not ready to make concessions to Russia. Despite numerous top-level meetings, recent months have failed to bring a breakthrough in energy issues of key importance. First of all, no compromise was reached in gas issues where the divergence of interests is particularly large and where Ukraine has adopted a tough stance to negotiate the best conditions possible. Even though some agreements were signed during the October session of the inter-governmental committee presided over by the prime ministers (the agreement on linking the two states' aircraft production and on the joint construction of a nuclear fuel production plant), these resulted from prior agreements.Economic negotiations will continue in the coming months but the observed deadlock is not likely to be broken any time soon. The results of these talks are likely to reflect the interests of both Russia and Ukraine, as well as the competition among Ukrainian business groups, some of which opt for closer cooperation with their Eastern neighbour.Ukraine's consent to send oil to Belarus along the Odessa-Brody pipeline shows that the government in Kyiv is ready to engage in projects they consider profitable, even those that run counter to Russian interests. Ukraine’s adoption of this stance may trigger irritation in Moscow and lead to a cooling in bilateral relations.

More...