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The Clean Network Initiative as an Element of the U.S.-China Competition

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English

Fearing China’s global dominance in the field of information and communications technology (ICT), including high-capacity 5G telecommunications networks, and the country’s access to new markets, in August 2020 the U.S. launched the Clean Network Initiative (CN). The coalition of states, institutions, and companies participating in it aims to prevent Chinese ICT from dominating the economies of America’s allies. The U.S. may determine the future level of cooperation with allies on the degree of saturation of their economies and infrastructure with Chinese technologies.

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Agreement in the GCC in Light of Joe Biden's Victory

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In early January, the “quartet states” (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt) announced the opening of borders and the restoration of full relations with Qatar, ending the blockade which started in 2017. The mitigation of the dispute is intended to show that the monarchies in the Persian Gulf are not the main factor destabilising the region. It is motivated, among other things, by declarations by the new U.S. administration to return human rights and democratic values to its foreign policy agenda, and to revisit the nuclear deal with Iran.

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China and the Crisis in the “17+1” Initiative

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The summit of the leaders of the “17+1” format, postponed from 2020, was held on 9 February. The Chinese authorities blame the U.S. for the crisis in the initiative but it is mainly the result of a lack of a substantial Chinese offer to its participants. China will not give up the multilateral dimension of cooperation within the “17+1” framework, but will focus on closer cooperation with selected partners, such as Hungary and Serbia. Poland’s promotion of transatlantic interests and the EU’s assertive approach to China will deepen the differences in Polish-Chinese relations. This may lead Poland to consider leaving the initiative.

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South Korea’s Growing Economic Involvement in Southeast Asia

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

The development of South Korea’s economic cooperation with ASEAN countries is a manifestation of the deepening diversification of its trade and investments. South Korea is trying to reduce its dependence on its main economic partners - China, the U.S. and Japan - after much tension in trade in recent years. Its turn to Southeast Asia may accelerate as a result of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the EU, this means both greater competition for European companies in ASEAN and an impulse to review the effectiveness of the free trade agreement with South Korea.

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ECB to the Rescue, Again: Ideas on Debt Relief in the Euro Area

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The pandemic has exacerbated the dispute over public debt in the euro area. The supporters of restructuring propose to redeem or extend the maturity of the bonds purchased by the European Central Bank (ECB) in recent years. Opponents of this idea point to legal problems and economic threats. This is another edition - after negotiations on the reconstruction fund - of the discussion on the future of the monetary union and the limits of financial solidarity between the Member States.

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Almost Best Friends: Austria’s Relations with Germany

Author(s): Adam S. Czartoryski / Language(s): English

No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.

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Challenges Related to Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) constitutes the core of the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It is to provide a financial impulse for stimulating growth and at the same time become a catalyst for economic transformation. Should these objectives be achieved, it could pave the way for financing larger EU undertakings through common debt more often. Implementation of the instrument will, however, be complicated by divergences between Member States concerning the adequate balance between fiscal support of the economy and reforms oriented at reducing spending.

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The EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean: Towards a Digital and Green Economy

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

The revision of EU policy towards its southern neighbourhood focuses on supporting green and digital transformations in order to boost the economic development of this region. However, the proposed solutions may bring limited results due to structural problems and the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. To increase the effectiveness of this policy, the EU can strengthen local actors. Poland can promote the good practices of the Eastern Partnership in this regard.

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Russia’s Flailing EU Policy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

The poisoning and subsequent arrest and conviction of oppositionist Alexei Navalny worsened the already tense Russia-EU relations. Although the EU remains Russia’s most important trading partner, the EU’s support for democratic values is a challenge for the ruling power elite in Russia. As a consequence of the international criticism of Russia by Western countries and the internal protests related to Navalny and other issues, relations between Russia and the EU will coarsen.

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Walking the Line: France’s Dilemma in Relations with China

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron believes that France’s importance in global politics depends on maintaining correct relations with all major states, including China. This concept includes support for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) and a reluctance to side with the U.S. in its disputes with China. The Chinese authorities see the French ambitions as an opportunity to loosen transatlantic ties and increase Chinese influence in the EU. Their increasing interference in France’s internal affairs, however, may lead Macron to adopt a more resolute stance.

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The Impact of the Repression in Xinjiang on China’s Relations with Other Countries

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

The policy of repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang has become a significant element of criticism of China in the world. In March this year, the EU, U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on China over the matter. Moreover, the Netherlands, the U.S. and Canada described China’s actions as genocide. For China, however, its actions involving Uyghurs are a key element of domestic politics, which is why it presents accusations as disinformation. It has imposed counter sanctions, including on the EU, and their wide scope indicates that for China, Xinjiang is more important than, for example, the ratification of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with the EU.

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Turkey: The European Union’s Adversarial Partner

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

The EU intends to implement a new model of relations with Turkey based on phased, proportional, and reversible engagement. The Union’s plans are a consequence of a dilemma: although Turkey often acts like an adversary, EU members want to maintain close relations with it due to the convergence of interests in areas such as migration and the economy. The Union’s new approach creates the opportunity to strengthen its influence on Turkey. Yet, different expectations about the future shape of relations will keep EU-Turkey relations tense.

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“Global Partnership for a New Era”: Perspectives on Japan-U.S. Relations

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Japan plays a key role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is confirmed by Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide’s visit to Washington in April. His government is ready to deepen cooperation with the U.S. on security issues, but while maintaining a stable relationship with China. Cooperation in the areas of the economy, technology, and climate will be of key importance to the global partnership between Japan and the U.S. This creates opportunities for deepening cooperation with Japan by the EU, including Poland, especially in the implementation of climate goals.

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Prospects for the Global Development of Small Modular Reactors

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The development of small modular reactors (SMR) creates the opportunity to use nuclear energy without extensive time- and money-consuming investments in large-scale nuclear power plants. Therefore, both exporters of nuclear technology and potential importers, as well as private investors are interested in the development of this market. The lower costs and many different applications might mean that SMR will play an important role in decarbonising economies. The spread of the technology will depend on, among others, the successful commercial implementation of the first SMR models, certification on European markets, as well as the EU’s policy toward nuclear energy.

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The Future of French Nuclear Energy

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Although nuclear energy is one of the leading branches of French industry, its development prospects remain unclear. This is due to divergences in opinion about the shape of the French energy sector after the energy transition, technical problems of the European Pressurised Reactor (EPR), and difficulties in adjusting to EU competition rules. Failure to address these issues could adversely affect the credibility of France’s offer for exports of civil nuclear technology.

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Prospects for V4-Japan Cooperation

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Japan is updating and strengthening the political dimension of its cooperation with the countries of the Visegrad Group (the V4 - Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia). It was prompted by China’s growing involvement in the Balkans and the EU’s preparation of its Indo-Pacific strategy. In both cases, Japan counts on the support of the V4, which would benefit from tightening multidimensional cooperation with an Asian partner that does not raise objections in the EU. However, the V4 members’ inconsistent approaches to China may undermine the coordination of the political dialogue between Japan and the Visegrad states, although it is unlikely to have a negative impact on economic cooperation.

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Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Mateusz M. Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.

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More Than Just Economic Growth: Social Issues in EU Politics

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

As the pandemic-related economic crisis unfolded, some Member States from Southern Europe, backed by left-wing factions in the European Parliament (EP), promoted greater coordination in the realm of social policy at the EU level and more ambitious goals in combatting poverty and unemployment. However, a large group of states, mostly from Northern Europe, expressed reservations about such proposals. As a result, the majority of planned actions are declarations rather than binding commitments.

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The CCP’s Tightening of Control over China’s IT Sector

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Contrary to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) expectations that China will develop production of semiconductors, robots, and artificial intelligence (AI), the local IT sector has been most successful in creating social networking and trade-support platforms. The CCP is concerned about the growing political and economic influence of IT companies and their leaders, especially the potential of the data processed there. Consequently, it has adopted new regulations, started investigations of companies, and enacted repression of Chinese CEOs with the aim of subjugating the sector to the state.

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The Future Development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in its 20 years of operation has not had a lasting impact on security in Central Asia, serving mainly as a forum for political consultations between Russia and China with the countries of the region. The SCO has only to a limited extent achieved the goals assumed at its creation, including stabilisation of the region and fighting terrorism and crime. Russia and China have developed other instruments to influence the situation in Central Asia, independent from the SCO. However, the organisation is an important instrument for creating legitimacy for their policies towards the countries of the region, as well as in limiting the influence of the EU and the U.S.

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