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With Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States, the crisis of liberal democracy seemed to have reached its climax. The new American President has probably been the most emblematic face of the rise of populism in the Western world over the last few years. In a number of Western countries, the populist wave has brought to the forefront of the political scene politicians willing to build typical authoritarian regimes on the “ruins of democracy”. In other regions of the world, the present problems of the West have been a proof to many that democracy does not work. Among the victims of this new tendency are human rights and multilateral institutions. Within the Euroatlantic zone it is Russia which is seen as the winner in its game against the West. Moscow has efficiently modified the famous motto of British diplomacy “if you cannot beat them, join them” into “if you cannot beat them, elect for them a president who suits you”. This humiliation of the West by Putin (also in Syria) has helped, however, better to recognize the danger of Russian subversive cyberactivity and made it rather impossible for Russia to repeat the same strategy in the context of important elections of 2017 in the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Defeating nationalistic populism there would help the whole European Union to deal with both the impact of Brexit and with other challenges, including further reforms of the Union.
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The article discusses the functioning of NATO in 2017: firstly, the conditions of the cooperation between the allies, with particular focus on the impact of Donald Trump’s election as President of the US on the debates within NATO and the organization’s activities. Secondly, the article covers the Alliance’s “mini-summit” in Brussels on the occasion of the launch of its new headquarters, as well as the actions taken to develop NATO capabilities to perform effective deterrence and collective defence tasks, including the implementation of the Enhanced Forward Presence initiative. Finally, the author also discusses the Alliance’s missions and operations in 2017, particularly the engagement in Afghanistan (Operation Resolute Support) and in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), as well as the evolution of NATO cooperation with external partners.
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The article discusses the evolution and functioning of Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU in 2017. First, the authors present the conditions of the cooperation within CSDP, including the relevance of transatlantic relations and their transformation after Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States, and of subregional and bilateral structures of defence cooperation (NORDEFCO, V4, Lancaster House Treaty). The article focuses on the process of establishment of the PESCO initiative and the analysis of its nature, characteristics, and the potential consequences of its launching in December 2017. The question of the European Defence Fund (EDF), also initiated in 2017, as well as the role of the European Commission in the cooperation in the EU in security and defence matters are also discussed. In addition, operational activities of the EU (CSDP) are reviewed, with special focus on the inauguration of the standing planning cell among EU military staff for planning and executing CSDP military missions, as well as the establishment of the CSDP advisory mission in Iraq.
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The article discusses the UN Security Council’s activities in 2016 and 2017. It describes attempts to combat the P-5 supremacy in appointing highest officials within the UN as well as the split among permanent members concerning Middle East conflicts (mainly Syrian and Israeli-Palestinian). It presents the main states and regions which are under scrutiny of the Council (North Korea, Colombia, several African states) as well as situations which the SC decided not to qualify as threats to peace and, as a consequence, in which it failed to undertake appropriate measures (i.e. the situation in Myanmar, Ukraine, or Venezuela). The article also discusses thematic resolutions (terrorism, piracy, protection of civilians and civilian objects) and the role of the SC in the implementation of Human Rights Law and International Humanitarian Law. It also summarizes the current status of peacekeeping operations and suggests the main difficulties Poland will encounter as a non-permanent member of the SC for the 2018-2019 term.
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The article presents the main event of 2017 concerning arms control and nuclear disarmament – the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The author discusses the origin and the process of negotiations and adoption of the treaty. He analyzes its key points: the system of prohibitions, declarations of treaty countries, IAEA’s safeguards, accession of states with nuclear weapons, and elimination of nuclear weapons, meetings of treaty countries, duration and withdrawal, as well as its relationship with other agreements – mainly the NPT. In conclusion, the author analyzes the implications of the TPNW for arms control and nuclear disarmament. ICAN wins Nobel Peace Prize.
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The aim of the article is to analyze the ongoing armed conflicts in Africa and Yemen with a special focus on the activity of jihadist groups and the internationalization of these conflicts. The paper is a continuation of a cycle of articles for the Strategic Yearbook and as such it concentrates on the events and the armed conflicts’ dynamics in 2017. It discusses the present dynamics, intensity, internationalization and the activity of jihadists groups in African (in Maghreb and the Sahel as well as Somalia) and Yemeni armed conflicts. It argues these conflicts have been systematically internationalized for different reasons (regional security order, power balance, economic or humanitarian issues), but today they are dominated by non-state jihadist actors. The author attempts to determine to what extent the current growing military involvement of the Western states (if there is any) is motivated by the rise of the jihadist groups in those armed conflicts.
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Donald Trump’s first year as President of the United States foreshadowed serious political changes and raised a number of questions related to the future of both domestic and foreign US policy. The main tasks for the new administration were: to „repair damages” created by its predecessors, eliminate malpractices in American politics, and implement ambitious election goals – all under the general „America First” slogan. Domestically, Donald Trump’s administration focused primarily on issues related to health care (i.e. repealing “Obamacare”), tax reductions, strengthening the American energy sector and enhancing US security through reorganization of immigration issues. Key foreign policy goals included: the rejection of Obama’s legacy (i.e. suspension or rejection of Obama’s most significant projects) and redefinition of foreign policy priorities. All that came amid growing interest in the media and public opinion, increased attention paid to Trump’s family businesses and the office he held, prosecutor inquiries into Russian interference during the US elections and contacts between the President’s most trusted associates and the Russians (the so-called Russiagate), ethic and moral scandals and personal problems in the President’s immediate surroundings. At the same time, the American economy was booming, and the US stock exchange achieved record highs. The aim of this article is to examine the transformation of Donald Trump-businessman into the President of a superpower, the implementation of the idea of „America First” and its consequences for the United States as well as its position in the international arena in 2017.
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The aim of this article is to analyze international relations in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of the balance of power. This mode of analysis is justified not only by the explanatory power of this theoretical concept, but also by the absence of regional institutional arrangements. The United States as a superpower is very active in balancing and rebalancing regional strategy, motivated by the desire to counter China’s growing influence. Meanwhile, in 2017 both superpowers were able to manage their bilateral relations by dialogue and cooperation on many regional issues, including North Korean nuclear programme.
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In 2017, Russian domestic, economic as well as foreign policy were subordinated to the preparations for the presidential election, which was expected to legitimize Vladimir Putin’s further rule. For this reason, the Kremlin’s main concern was to prevent any events endangering stability in those spheres in order to avoid even the slightest risk to the political process. In their internal policy, the authorities continued to block the tools that gave the West any potential influence on the situation in the country, tightening control over the society, harassing the political opposition and disciplining the broader political elite. The tensions in the elite and the oppositional mobilization on the part of the youth were problems for the Kremlin. In their economic policy, the authorities took advantage of rising oil prices to try to ensure financial stability, maintain a small economic growth and rebuild reserves in case of a deterioration of the situation. The problem was economic stagnation and pauperization of a part of society. In foreign policy, Russia made small attempts to normalize its relations with the West, but not at the expense of any political concessions. On the other hand, it strengthened, also informally, cooperation with China and tried to discount its growing activity in the Middle East and dominance in Syria to build its image of a superpower. The main problem was the unexpected further deterioration of relations with the US, in particular the threat of toughening American sanctions.
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In 2017, no major changes took place in Eastern European and Southern Caucasus states. The development trends observed in previous years were confirmed. First, in all of the countries in the regions, the rulers remained in power: only Armenia held parliamentary elections, but no major political changes followed. Second, the region remained within the scope of interest of the global powers, in particular because of the ongoing conflict between Russia in Ukraine. Third, both the EU and the Russian Federation continued their efforts to strengthen relations with some countries of the region, e.g. though introducing the Schengen visa free regime for Ukraine and Georgia on one hand, and organizing the Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad 2017 on the other. Fourth, all of the countries of the region, with the exception of Azerbaijan, overcame the economic crisis. At the inter-political level, there were no changes in the specificity of the politics in the region, which aims mainly at consolidating the position of the existing political and economic elites. Two states (Belarus and Azerbaijan) have been presidential dictatorships since the 1990s. Four other are currently ruled by the nomenclature (Armenia) or local oligarchs – either directly (Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine) or indirectly (Vlad Plahotniuk in Moldova, Bidzina Ivanishvili in Georgia). The rulers often simulate reforms in order to gain public support and help from the West while in fact their actions are aimed at strengthening their own power. At the international level, there is growing disappointment over the cooperation with the biggest neighbours, i.e. EU and Russia. The former has created a “ring of friends” in its Eastern neighbourhood: Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have all signed association agreements and obtained visa free regimes. However, the EU has little idea of the direction in which its cooperation with these countries should be developed in future, and no political will to recognize their membership perspective. Russia disposes of considerable influence in Belarus and Armenia: both countries accept it rather because of the lack of alternatives than any benefits it brings. As a result, they are trying to cooperate with the West, provided it does not jeopardize Russia’s interests. Azerbaijan remains a specific case, as it effectively avoids an overdependence on one of the global players in the region and strives to benefit from cooperation with both the EU and Russia.
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2017 in the Middle East saw a continuation of the same trends which had destabilized the situation in the region for several years. Conflicts which broke out as a consequence of the so called Arab Spring continued to reveal their destructive potential, not only within the countries where they took place but also in the wider dimension – the regional and global international system. In Libya and Yemen, internal chaos persisted. In Syria, bloody clashes between government forces and various opposition organizations continued. In each of this conflicts political forces that appealed to politicized and fundamentalist interpretation of Islam – the Islamic State (IS) or local structures related to Al-Qaeda – also played a significant role. At the same time, in 2017 the balance of power significantly changed to the disadvantage of IS, which suffered a number of strategic failures on major fronts, both in Syria and Iraq (and also in Libya).
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The article discusses Poland’s foreign policy in 2017/2018. It shows how internalpolicy (inter alia: the reform of the judicial system, the amendment of the NationalRemembrance Institute law) affected international criticism, Poland’s image, andits external activity. The European Commission launched the rule of law controlmechanism and triggered art. 7 TUE. Bilateral relations in Europe lost their intensity.Poland was focused on the development of the cooperation in the framework of theVisehrad Group and the Three Sea Initiative. The article also provides an analysis ofPoland’s security policy and of Polish-US relations. It explains how Poland’s Easternpolicy was determined by historical factors, especially in its relations with Ukraine.Poland also put some effort into the development of cooperation with extra-Europeanstates, including China.
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This article describes modern and historical weaknesses of representativedemocracy, as well as the ideological foundations on which its legitimization isbased. Liberal democracy is at the core of all studies and the source of reflectionsconcerning politics. Within it, one cannot help but observe a constant strugglebetween political freedoms, individual demands and social rights. The mainthesis concerns the deeply rooted conviction that a socially effective democracyrequires the synthesis of representation and participation. Elections are not the onlyelement that can pave the way for political action. They are not the only factor thatdetermines the direction that the state will take. One must also take into considerationpossible political protests, referenda, petitions, social consultations, and deprivingrepresentatives of their mandate. All these actions help define the strategy and approach used by society to put into effect its group goals and particular interests,e.g. those pertaining to a specific class, area of expertise, or worldview, understoodin a European as well as a broader, global sense. To be socially effective, democracyneeds to take into account social demands of political empowerment. The purpose ofsocial democracy is not only to create a system in which labour provides the criteriafor equal access to goods and services, but also to introduce co-governance on manylevels of societal existence. Social rights are just as important as individual freedoms:people are equal in freedom, and free thanks to fair income.
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The article attempts to predict the most important political trends in the EuropeanUnion. In order to achieve this, a discussion on the methods of forecasting in the socialsciences is presented in the first part of the article, including the methodology relatingto the latest theoretical research in European studies. Theoretical generalizationsprovide a unique opportunity to assess the most important processes of integration(or disintegration) which allow us to plan the future of the European Union. Next,the author’s forecast of the future of Europe is presented, with particular emphasison the issue of democracy in the EU.
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In this short, condensed study of the Hungarian case of state capture after 2010,the Author, on the basis chiefly of Hungarian-language literature, shows how –and to what extent – the liberal democracy introduced after the Communist systemcollapsed was dismantled. Not only a new Constitution was introduced on January1, 2012, but all features of the checks and balances system, i.e. the media, economy,judicial system, and recently also civil society were subordinated to parliamentarymajority, the executive power and personally to a charismatic, but also populist andnationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán (the term „Orbán System” was popularizedespecially by the media). The author does not presume to know what should happennext, however, he wishes the article to be treated as a reminder of how weak –institutionally and by its very nature – liberal democracy is in the post-Communistworld.
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Although the data collected by Esri Story Maps team and PeaceTech Labdemonstrates that 2017 saw a decline in the number of terrorist attacks around theworld, and ISIS in Syria and Iraq was nearly destroyed, this does not mean that theterrorist threat has expired. This threat can be compared to a virus which continuesto be dangerous and keeps attacking, using different methods in different parts of theworld. In this context, several important research questions should be asked about thescale and characteristics of modern terrorism on the one hand, and on the other, onits future, for example, its further evolution and escalation, its forms, or the potentialtactics and strategies that may be used by terrorists. Some experts anticipate thatfurther serious evolution and escalation of terrorist attacks should be expected inthe future. This evolution will be marked not only by an increase in the number ofattacks, but above all by even greater diversification of terrorist forms and methods,including the use of, for example, drones, cyberterrorism or chemical, biological orradiological agents. Another manifestation of this evolution will be the escalation ofattacks on Islamist, as well as extreme right, leftist, separatist and other grounds. Thisfollows from the connection of terrorism with many different phenomena, such asthe influx of migrants. In this context, it is necessary to take into account the use ofterrorism by extremist groups (e.g. right-wing or left-wing) opposing or supporting,for various reasons, the influx of immigrants/refugees and its consequences. In orderto present the scale and characteristics of modern terrorism, and to show potentialnew trends, the author analyzes three important reports on the terrorist threatpublished in 2017 by the US Department of State, the National Consortium for theStudy of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) University of Marylandand Europol.
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Examining the interpretation of the concept of common good in the so-called Reform Era in Hungary (1830–1848), the study concludes that the use of “common good”, a notional part of early modern political language, had by then become fairly topos-like. Beginning with the texts that mediate the classical political inheritance, common good meant before all concord, the unity of the community, and was consequently connected to moral values, with community enjoying priority. Political economy, however, related as it was to rationalism, discourses of welfare, the language of politeness and utilitarianism, favored private interest and the conditions of private gain. The study first explores István Széchenyi’s Hitel from the perspective of the extent to which the emergence, or even dominance, of private interests modified the public view. Although frequently operating with economic descriptions and analyses, and using economic images, the Hitel does not completely break with the public view nor with the moral expectations connected to the nation. Yet it does make viewpoints of private interest sensible, and one of the efficient ways of its argumentation is to spur the quest for private gain and the acquisition of the „goods of life”. The analysis of Miklós Wesselényi’s Balítéletekről has yielded similar results. While its author is more strongly attached to republican outlook, and displays more sympathy towards the ancient constitution, he likewise operates with economic descriptions and images, emphasizing through economic argumentation the necessity of individual gain and material welfare, and thereby fragmenting and transgressing traditional public conception and morality. As both authors were as a matter of fact nationalists as well, as all politicians and publicists in the Reform Era, they could not completely part with republican public sense in the interpretation of the national community. The analysis also briefly touches upon the terminology of Ferenc Kölcsey and Ferenc Deák, a digression that, despite divergences in the frequency with which of synonyms and the individual elements of the verbal family (interest, happiness) are used, clearly corroborates the view that, in the political debates and publicism of the 1830s, all liberal reformers sought ways for the transformation and integration of society that would lessen the distance between private and public interests. Although they could express public good with a number of terms, they were clearly on the way to a national integration of the political community that would also make liberty rights prevail.
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