Europa Wschodnia i Kaukaz Południowy: nihil novi
Eastern Europe and Southern Caucasus: Same old, same old...

Summary/Abstract: In 2017, no major changes took place in Eastern European and Southern Caucasus states. The development trends observed in previous years were confirmed. First, in all of the countries in the regions, the rulers remained in power: only Armenia held parliamentary elections, but no major political changes followed. Second, the region remained within the scope of interest of the global powers, in particular because of the ongoing conflict between Russia in Ukraine. Third, both the EU and the Russian Federation continued their efforts to strengthen relations with some countries of the region, e.g. though introducing the Schengen visa free regime for Ukraine and Georgia on one hand, and organizing the Russian-Belarusian military exercises Zapad 2017 on the other. Fourth, all of the countries of the region, with the exception of Azerbaijan, overcame the economic crisis. At the inter-political level, there were no changes in the specificity of the politics in the region, which aims mainly at consolidating the position of the existing political and economic elites. Two states (Belarus and Azerbaijan) have been presidential dictatorships since the 1990s. Four other are currently ruled by the nomenclature (Armenia) or local oligarchs – either directly (Petro Poroshenko in Ukraine) or indirectly (Vlad Plahotniuk in Moldova, Bidzina Ivanishvili in Georgia). The rulers often simulate reforms in order to gain public support and help from the West while in fact their actions are aimed at strengthening their own power. At the international level, there is growing disappointment over the cooperation with the biggest neighbours, i.e. EU and Russia. The former has created a “ring of friends” in its Eastern neighbourhood: Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have all signed association agreements and obtained visa free regimes. However, the EU has little idea of the direction in which its cooperation with these countries should be developed in future, and no political will to recognize their membership perspective. Russia disposes of considerable influence in Belarus and Armenia: both countries accept it rather because of the lack of alternatives than any benefits it brings. As a result, they are trying to cooperate with the West, provided it does not jeopardize Russia’s interests. Azerbaijan remains a specific case, as it effectively avoids an overdependence on one of the global players in the region and strives to benefit from cooperation with both the EU and Russia.

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