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Belarusians on Poland, Russia and themselves. Analysis of a public opinion poll commissioned by the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Author(s): Team OSW / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Russia; Poland; Aleksandr Lukashenko; Vladimir Putin; Angela Merkel; Volodymyr Zelenskiy; Andrzej Duda;

Belarus is the only country in Europe where public opinion polls are not published on a regular basis. This is a result of repressive policy of the Belarusian government, which has effectively banned sociological research related to politically ‘sensitive’ topics such as political ratings. This means that little is known about the attitudes of the Belarusian people or their views on political issues. At the request of the OSW and on the basis of questions it prepared, Belarusian interviewers conducted a telephone survey between 26 November and 16 December 2020 with a representative sample of1000 respondents, the aim of which was to examine Belarusian opinions about selected countries, including Poland and Russia. It should be emphasised that no one has conducted a similarly comprehensive public survey for many months.

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The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance

Author(s): Mateusz Chudziak,Wojciech Górecki / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baku-Ankara alliance; The Nagorno-Karabakh war; Georgia; security;

The Nagorno-Karabakh war of autumn 2020 and the military parade organized in Baku after its end, which was jointly hosted by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighted the potential of the alliance between both countries. The close ties between Baku and Ankara result from a strategic choice made almost three decades ago. The diverse activities they have undertaken to strengthen their cooperation have varied in intensity over that period, but their overall direction has remained unchanged. As a result, Azerbaijan has gradually distanced itself from Russia, and through its cooperation with Turkey, it has moved closer (albeit mainly economically) to the West. Ankara, on the other hand, has strengthened its position in the South Caucasus. This has led to the formation of an Ankara-Bakuaxis, which presents a challenge to Moscow because it limits Russian influence in the region. However, the Turkic duo has been taking care not to antagonize Russia directly; one expression of this approach is their acceptance of Moscow’s key role in resolving the Karabakh conflict.

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Sputnik V: research, production, vaccination campaign and export

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Sputnik V; vaccine; COVID-19; Russian vaccines; mass vaccination campaign; COVID passports;

In December 2020, Russia launched a mass-scale action for vaccinating its citizens with the domestically produced Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine. It was only on 2 February 2021 that the Gamaleya Institute, which developed the vaccine, announced the results of its phase-III clinical trials which showed that the vaccine’s efficacy rate was more than 91%. The way the Russian leadership reports on Sputnik V’s production and rollout is chaotic and the published data is incompatible and non-transparent. Only rough information has been shared regarding the number of vaccinations performed thus far: the Ministry of Health has failed to provide precise figures and, according to estimates by the Gamaleya Institute, the immunisation campaign has so far covered 1.5–2 million citizens. However, these figures are inconsistent with the data reported by the individual regions.

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The Bohemianisation of the media. The acquisition of the Czech media sector by local billionaires

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Media; Czech media sector; media ownership; foreign media markets;

The deal finalising the sale of Nova TV to PPF on 13 October 2020 completed the process of key Czech media organisations being taken over by local capital. At the beginning of 2008, foreign entities controlled the vast majority of the Czech media market. However, a wide section of the popular press titles and radio and TV stations was taken over by domestic billionaires in the following years. They took advantage of the problems the owners of traditional media outlets had to face: both temporary (the decline in advertising revenue during the economic crisis) and structural (the increasing popularity of the Internet at the expense of the printed press). The expansion of domestic business empires in this sector was quickly branded as anoligarchisation of the media in the Czech Republic. Local billionaires treated their new assets as tools of political influence. They do not rely on the mass media as a source of profits. Instead, they use it as a means for protecting their businesses from attacks by competitors or state interference. The mass media has even become a tool for gaining or consolidating a political and business position. There are many indications that, for similar reasons, the richest Czechs are also buying media outlets abroad in countries where they do business.

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Tightening the screws. Putin’s repressive laws

Author(s): Maria Domańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Vladimir Putin; repressive laws; Kremlin’s legislative offensive; Tighter Internet and media censorship; Russian authoritarianism;

In December 2020, President Vladimir Putin signed a package of laws tightening regulations on non-governmental organisations, public gatherings and media censorship. It is one of the elements marking a new quality in the Kremlin’s domestic policy: Russian authoritarianism has de facto abandoned the pretence of democratic procedures in favour of increased control and repression.

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Cooperation despite mistrust. The shadow of Trianon in Romanian-Hungarian relations

Author(s): Kamil Całus / Language(s): English

Keywords: Treaty of Trianon; Romanian-Hungarian relations; Romanian parliament; Hungarian minority; autonomy;

On 3 November, the Romanian parliament declared that 4 June would be a new public holiday commemorating the signing of the Treaty of Trianon on that day in 1920. This document formalised the transfer of large territories then belonging to the Hungarian part of Austria-Hungary to the neighbouring countries, including Romania. These lands today constitute over 40% of Romania’s land area. Over the past two years, preparations for the 100th anniversary of the treaty’s adoption have exacerbated the relationship between Romania and Hungary, which perceives this event as a national tragedy. The two states’ widely divergent perceptions of the treaty, and the presence in Romania of a large and politically active Hungarian minority as its result, are a constant source of tensions between the two countries. The Hungarian problem, symbolised by the aforementioned document, resonates throughout society, and has traditionally been exploited as an instrument of political struggle by representatives of the main Romanian political groups. Budapest has also been willing to exploit the ‘Trianon complex’ in the Hungarian mentality for its domestic political aims. However, Hungarian politics does not constitute a real threat to the stability of Romania in the current international environment. The geographic location of both countries obliges them to cooperate, especially in the fields of economy and energy, which mitigates their historical and symbolic disputes.

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Ukraine: attempted attack on anti-corruption bodies?

Author(s): Piotr Żochowski,Sławomir Matuszak,Tadeusz Iwański / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; anti-corruption system; President Zelensky’s anti-corruption dilemmas;

The high susceptibility of Ukrainian officials to corruption has been one factor affecting the condition of the Ukrainian state. Since 2014, the government has managed to create several anti-corruption institutions whose independence from the executive is one of the main conditions for Ukraine to continue receiving financial assistance from the West. Over the past year, this system has become more robust, and the first sentences were issued in cases involving state officials caught up in corruption schemes. However, despite President Volodymyr Zelensky’s declared determination to combat corruption among state officials, recent months have seen measures that may weaken the key institutions established to combat corruption; this would be tantamount to reversing reforms in this field. These actions have been initiated by politicians and oligarchs intending to make the fight against corruption less effective. This has triggered major concern from Western donors (who are responding to this by threatening to halt financial support and to suspend the visa-free regime) and from Ukrainian civil society.

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Russia in the global ‘vaccine race’

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; vaccine race; COVID-19 pandemic; Sputnik V; medical and ethical dilemmas;

During the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moscow has stepped up its activities in the global‘ vaccine race’ against SARS-CoV-2. So far Russia has registered two vaccines, which was announced by President Vladimir Putin himself. The presentation of Sputnik V, which the Russian government has branded as the ‘world’s first vaccine’, caused controversy from the very start, for both medical (as the clinical trial procedure was not completed) and ethical reasons (forcing ‘volunteers’ to take part in the tests). Foreign specialists, alongside the Russian medical community and the Russian public, have expressed scepticism about the insufficiently tested preparation. Despite this, the government is planning to carry out a mass campaign of public vaccination using Sputnik V and export this vaccine, mainly to developing countries.

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Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of revolution

Author(s): Krzysztof Strachota,Mariusz Marszewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kyrgyzstan; revolution; Sooronobay Jeenbekov; The October Revolution;

On 15 October Kyrgyzstan’s president, Sooronobay Jeenbekov, resigned from his position and his duties were taken over by the opposition leader, Sadyr Japarov. The change in power was brought about by large-scale protests which broke out on 5 October, the day after the election; subsequently the protesters took over the main buildings of the central administration in Bishkek and released opposition leaders who had been imprisoned (among them Japarov). The demonstrations, which were forceful but not long-lasting, resulted in a compromise of sorts which led to changes in the highest state positions, the announcement of an early presidential election and a rerun of the parliamentary election.

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Tainted by Gorleben. The issue of radioactive waste storage in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

Keywords: radioactive waste storage; Germany; Gorleben;

The search continues in Germany for a site for final repository of high-level radioactive waste. A disused salt mine in Gorleben, which was earmarked as the site more than forty years ago, has been definitively eliminated as a choice due to not meeting geological requirements. For years, the choice of the site was a source of severe protest, and this was a major factor in the founding of the Green Party in 1980. Still today, the issue of permanent storage of radioactive waste in Germany is stigmatized. The new process of finding a site has been devised to avoid making the same mistakes made many years ago, when the decision was made in an enigmatic manner with no public consultations. Although the decision as to the new and definitive site was intended to be made on the basis of scientific criteria, the matter has again become a political matter and will also be a major campaign issue in the run-up to the Bundestag elections. This will call into doubt the credibility of the entire process and could seriously hamper the making of the final decision, envisaged by 2031.

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Russia on the US presidential elections. Neutrality, with a slight tilt towards Trump

Author(s): Witold Rodkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; US presidential elections; Donald Trump; Russian elites; Washington’s policy towards Moscow; Joe Biden;

Russia’s ruling elite believes that the outcome of the US presidential elections will have only a negligible impact on Washington’s policy towards Moscow, because the American establishment is convinced that Russia under Vladimir Putin has consistently pursued an anti-American policy. In Russia’s view, each candidate has both strong and weak points, but in the end the Kremlin would prefer to see Donald Trump remain in the White House. To this end, Moscow has been active – particularly in the sphere of propaganda – with the aim of weakening Joe Biden’s candidacy and stoking domestic tensions in American society. However, the scope of Russia’s activity seems more limited compared to the previous electoral campaign. However, Moscow is likely to step up its activities should a political conflict emerge over the outcome of the election. A victory for the Democratic presidential candidate will result in revisions in US policy towards Russia. The incoming Biden administration can be expected to combine tough rhetoric on its divergences with Russia in the field of values with attempts to find areas where their interests converge and where cooperation can take place (such as arms control, the resolution of regional conflicts and the fight against terrorism), complemented by efforts to coordinate the West’s policy towards Russia.

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Back to team play. German hopes for renewed co-operation with the USA

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; USA; Joe Biden; US climate policy; security and defence;

Germany hopes that Joe Biden’s upcoming presidency will contribute to restoring transatlantic bonds. It is pinning its hopes on both sides sharing a similar perception of the key challenges, the appreciation of the importance of alliances, and on the US returning to the use of multilateral instruments. German-American relations will no longer be burdened by the confrontational rhetoric and strictly transactional approach which were typical of the outgoing president. However, the political change in the United States will not remove the differences of positions and interests that underlie the main disputes between Berlin and Washington. Moreover, given the fact that both Democrats and Republicans were running neck and neck during the presidential race, Germany may modify its expectations with regard to the new American administration to become more realistic. German politicians have signalled their readiness to engage more in maintaining the partnership with the US, but whether they will be able to put these declarations into practice remains an open question, considering that elections to the Bundestag are due to be held next year. The main difficulty for Germany will be making adjustments in the area of security, mainly due to the German public’s reluctance to increase spending on defence. Coordination of policy towards China will be an equally important challenge.

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The regime’s fight to survive: 100 days of political crisis in Belarus

Author(s): Kamil Kłysiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: political crisis in Belarus; Aleksandr Lukashenko; militia state; rebellious society; economic situation; Russia;

The massive public protests against the rigging of the presidential election’s results which began on 9 August have led to the deepest political crisis in the history of independent Belarus. For the first time, a situation has arisen in which anti-regime demonstrations have been held for over three months, numbering over 100,000 people in the capital at the times of greatest mobilisation. Despite the fall in the number of protesters observed in recent weeks, the public’s anger is not waning, which is making it difficult for the authorities to control society. In response to the rebellion by a large number of its citizens, the regime has chosen the tactics of repression and intimidation. As a result, Belarusian authoritarianism is becoming more and more oppressive, gradually taking on the characteristics of a militia state. As he concentrates on keeping power, Alyaksandr Lukashenka has come to rely principally on the security sector, who see preserving the regime as a chance to hold onto their own privileges. In parallel to the increasing importance of the so-called siloviki in the government apparatus, Lukashenka has weakened the position of the civilian element of the nomenklatura. The regime is also pursuing an increasingly confrontational policy towards the West, to make it seem more credible that the protests have been inspired from abroad; in the economic sphere, economic reforms have been blocked as the regime focuses on controlling business. Lukashenka’s future maybe decided by Russia, which is trying to use the crisis in the Belarusian system of power to gain full domination in Belarus.

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More EU, less Russia. Transforming gas transmission rules in Central and South-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Gas transmission; Nord Stream; TurkStream; Gazprom; Ukraine; Trans-Balkan gas pipeline;

In recent months, the rules for gas transmission through the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe have been changing at an ever faster rate. There has been much talk about opening new routes for exporting Russian gas to the European Union along routes which would bypass this region, which has led to a decline in its transit importance. The ongoing expansion of the network of interconnectors and alternative connections is changing the routes of gas transmission on the Central European market. No less important, although still somewhat less noticeable, are the changing rules for the transport of gas from Russia to the EU. With the expiration of a succession of long-term transit contracts (Ukraine’s at the end of 2019, Poland’s in May 2020, and also those of Slovakia and Bulgaria over the next few years), it will be possible for all of the region’s gas transmission to operate on the basis of EU regulations, namely the Third Energy Package, including its network codes. As a result, there is an increase in transparency and competition, and access to the infrastructure is becoming more attractive, which encourages European companies to use it. At the same time, however, gas transmission from Russia is becoming more unpredictable. This is illustrated by the changes this year in the flow of gas through the Yamal gas pipeline, Ukraine’s main lines and the Trans-Balkan route. The future of gas transmission in the region will also depend on external factors: the processes taking place in Ukraine, the actual physical levels of Russian gas transit, and the situation in the European gas market.

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Coronavirus test for military organisation in Russia

Author(s): Jolanta Darczewska / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19 test; Russia; EMERCOM; state and crisis management;

The Kremlin defines the role of the Russian Federation as a superpower in the international arena in terms of the strength it can bring to bear due to its resources, and this is the backdrop for the Kremlin’s plans to integrate the capacities of the ‘forces ministries’ into a coherent state military organisation. The system, which was created to mobilise the various resources, and develop a capacity for them to be used flexibly to further Russia’s strategic political goals, has also been put to the test in the current epidemiological crisis. One form in which this has manifested itself is marginalisation of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM), which officially is in charge of coordinating crisis response operations.

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Vilnius cancels Lukashenka. Lithuania’s policy on the Belarus crisis

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; Aleksandr Lukashenko; Belarus crisis; Dictatorship; Lithuanian parliament;

The Lithuanian government has not recognised the legality of the election of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as President of the Republic of Belarus, and it now regards the opposition as their main partner. Lithuania has taken on the role of spokesperson for the opposition’s interests, a move which has put an end to Vilnius’s cooperation with the Belarusian dictator. Lithuania attaches particular importance to maintaining ties with Belarusian citizens, on the one hand by providing support to the victims of repression, and on the other by ensuring that social and economic contacts between the two countries are maintained.

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Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; France; Estonia’s security policy; CSDP; NATO’s eastern flank; military ties between France and Estonia;

Over the last few years, Tallinn has been increasingly involved in military cooperation in the EU and with France. To date, Estonia is the only country on NATO’s eastern flank to join the French-led European Intervention Initiative. The country is developing the European pillar of its security policy with a view to diversifying military cooperation, which has centred primarily around the US and UK. This is due to Estonia’s concerns about the future of their military posture in Europe. However, due to the leading role of the US and UK in NATO’s deterrence and defence on the eastern flank, working with the two countries will continue to be Estonia’s security policy priority.

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The environmental disaster in the Arctic. Moscow’s neo-colonial exploitation of Russia’s regions

Author(s): Iwona Wiśniewska,Jadwiga Rogoża / Language(s): English

Keywords: environmental disaster; Arctic; Russia; Norilsk; environmental issues;

The end of May 2020 saw the biggest known environmental disaster in the Russian Arctic. The thermal power plant in Norilsk in Krasnoyarsk Krai, controlled by the Norilsk Nickel company, contaminated soil and water with more than 21,000 tons of diesel fuel. A month later, the company dumped another portion of toxic substances directly onto the tundra. Although the company has been polluting the region for years, it has thus far remained unpunished. This case illustrates the costs of Russia’s status as a major raw commodity exporter and of Moscow’s policy of exploitation of remote regions, which resembles colonial practices. In these regions, natural resources are being mined in a manner close to over-exploitation, without the necessary protection measures, and the health of the local population is being put at serious risk. Moscow accumulates the income earned from selling the mined raw materials and at the same time it ignores the interests of local residents – all matters concerning the regions are decided in the capital, frequently behind the scenes, and the regional governments are informed of the decisions afterwards. The Kremlin allows mining companies to operate freely in the regions (including with regards to environmental issues) in exchange for contributions to the state budget and profits for members of the elite associated with President Putin.

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The grand coalition government in Israel. New faces of the political crisis

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Benyamin Netanyahu; Israeli parliamentary democracy; COVID-19 pandemic; balance of power;

After three rounds of early parliamentary elections in Israel, in May 2020 a grand coalition government was sworn in. The parties that make it up belong to a block of conservative and religious groups centred on the Likud bloc of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, together with the centre-left bloc associated with the Blue and Whites led by Binyamin Gantz. However, the appointment of a government does not mean the end of the political crisis. Uncertainty about the intentions of the central figure on Israel’s political scene, Prime Minister Netanyahu, continues. It is not clear whether he will hand over office to Gantz in November 2021 in accordance with the coalition agreement, or how he intends to deal with the trial that has just started in which he has been charged with corruption. Moreover, the ruling coalition has already been shaken by conflicts, a situation which has been exacerbated by the presence in the Knesset of an opposition which is strong and has been gaining increasing support in the polls. Matters have also been made more difficult by the challenges connected with the second wave of theCOVID-19 pandemic, as well as the country’s economic problems and the protests they have motivated.

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USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe

Author(s): Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Germany; NATO’s eastern flank; US military presence in Germany;

At the end of July, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper announced plans to withdraw approximately 12 000 US troops from Germany. Reactions in Berlin were varied. The main narrative is that of Germany being penalised and transatlantic ties being undermined. In anticipation of the US presidential election, the federal government is being guarded in its statements. The German federal states affected by the cuts have started lobbying to stop the plans. The political parties in Germany are divided in their views on the Trump administration’s decision, which is welcomed by almost half of German society. Regardless of the motives, the Pentagon’s plans show the trend in the restructuring of the US permanent military presence in Europe. US permanent forces in Europe could in future be cut further as the US is less and less engaged in the Middle East and Africa. The units being recalled from Germany will not be moved permanently to allies east of the Oder. For NATO’s eastern flank, the Pentagon is developing the concept of a flexible, scalable presence, allowing rapid reductions, but also rapid reinforcement of US forces. The changes to the US military presence in Europe are challenging for the European allies. A departure from the standard debate on the US’ withdrawal from Europe or on the NATO-Russia Founding Act is needed. The discussion is overdue on how to adapt to the transformation of the US presence with regard to collective defence within NATO, and how Europe, and not only France, should engage in crisis management in the European neighborhood.

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Series:OSW Commentary

Belarusians on Poland, Russia and themselves. Analysis of a public opinion poll commissioned by the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

The (pan-)Turkic Caucasus. The Baku-Ankara alliance and its regional importance

Sputnik V: research, production, vaccination campaign and export

The Bohemianisation of the media. The acquisition of the Czech media sector by local billionaires

Tightening the screws. Putin’s repressive laws

Cooperation despite mistrust. The shadow of Trianon in Romanian-Hungarian relations

Ukraine: attempted attack on anti-corruption bodies?

Russia in the global ‘vaccine race’

Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of revolution

Tainted by Gorleben. The issue of radioactive waste storage in Germany

Russia on the US presidential elections. Neutrality, with a slight tilt towards Trump

Back to team play. German hopes for renewed co-operation with the USA

The regime’s fight to survive: 100 days of political crisis in Belarus

More EU, less Russia. Transforming gas transmission rules in Central and South-Eastern Europe

Coronavirus test for military organisation in Russia

Vilnius cancels Lukashenka. Lithuania’s policy on the Belarus crisis

Seeking an additional reassurance. The EU and France in Estonia’s security policy

The environmental disaster in the Arctic. Moscow’s neo-colonial exploitation of Russia’s regions

The grand coalition government in Israel. New faces of the political crisis

USA – Germany – NATO’s eastern flank. Transformation of the US military presence in Europe