Series:CEPS Policy Briefs

№129. Turkmenistan in transition. A window for EU engagement?

№129. Turkmenistan in transition. A window for EU engagement?

Author(s): Michael Denison / Language(s): English

Keywords: Niyazov; Turkmenistan; Transition; EU;

The sudden death of President Saparmurat Niyazov on 21 December 2006 has opened a window for engagement between the European Union (EU) and Turkmenistan. There appears to be a realisation across the Turkmen political elite that Niyazov’s style of policy micro-management was unsustainable and undesirable, both in terms of its immediate outcomes, and for its broader impact on political and social cohesion. Accordingly, a more balanced and collegiate form of governance is likely to develop under the new regime, with power effectively centred on a ‘junta’ of influential security officials from different clans/regions. Although formal democratisation remains a distant prospect, a sequence of economic and social changes, initiated both from above and below is likely to occur. The principal objectives of these will be to reverse Niyazov’s most idiosyncratic and unambiguously damaging policies, and to commence a process of cautious re-engagement with the outside world. What is the aim of these changes, repairing the damage of the Niazov years or something more ambitious? These reforms have the potential to be simultaneously emancipating and destabilising. Using a fusion of traditional Turkmen and Soviet techniques, paid for by gas rents, Niyazov managed to create a regime that, for over two decades, rather effectively neutralised any actual or potential sources of opposition to his rule. Without that primitive overlay, the multiplication of political actors, combined with necessary reforms to increase the role of the private sector, is likely to test the state’s institutional strength, and open new internal commercial pressures for engagement in and beyond the region.

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№130. Tajikistan and the EU. From Post-Conflict Reconstruction to Critical Engagement

№130. Tajikistan and the EU. From Post-Conflict Reconstruction to Critical Engagement

Author(s): Matteo Fumagalli / Language(s): English

Keywords: Tajikistan; EU; geopolitics;

For the European Union, the development of closer ties with Tajikistan within the context of the broader effort to forge a Strategy for the Central Asia could represent a significant opportunity. Tajikistan occupies a geographically peripheral position, but it is precisely this location outside the limelight – and therefore not so subject to the pressures of geopolitics and the struggle for energy resources that shapes much of the politics of the rest of the region – that could allow the EU to foster new forms of cooperation with the local authorities and to devise policies aimed at strengthening the Tajik state’s capacities and stability, which would significantly assist reform and development in the country. This would mean building on the encouraging developments taking place in bilateral relations and taking additional steps aimed at achieving the goals above in a more effective way.

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№133. What will it take to resolve the dispute in Western Sahara?

№133. What will it take to resolve the dispute in Western Sahara?

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche / Language(s): English

Keywords: UN; security council; Western Sahara;

After four years of diplomatic stalemate, there appeared to be some movement around the ‘frozen’ conflict in Western Sahara early in 2007, with a ‘fresh’ Moroccan proposal presented to a UN Security Council meeting on April 11th. The outcome of this submission, and its Sahrawi counterpart, was a UNSC resolution calling on: the parties to enter into negotiations without preconditions in good faith, taking into consideration the developments of the last months, with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution, which will provide for the self-determination of the people of the Western Sahara.

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№134. Democratisation and Human Rights in Central Asia: Problems, Development Prospects and the Role of the International Community

№134. Democratisation and Human Rights in Central Asia: Problems, Development Prospects and the Role of the International Community

Author(s): Eugheniy Zhovtis / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Democratisation; Human Rights; international community; CPSU;

To understand the reasons for the relative failures of the transition to democracy, the formation of a law-based state and the establishment of respect for human rights in the independent states of Central Asia today, as well as the role of the international community, one has to assess, first of all, the dynamics of the political process in this region of the world. In large part, the origins of the current weakness of democratic processes are the result of developments during the final decades of Soviet power. By the early 1990s, there arose a situation in which the ruling authorities Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), ruling authorities, realising the necessity of reform but at the same time wishing to retain power, initiated a set of reforms that employed democratic phraseology but which aimed first of all at protecting the interests of the ruling group.

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№135. What Went Wrong? The Impact of Western Policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah

№135. What Went Wrong? The Impact of Western Policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah

Author(s): Natalie Tocci / Language(s): English

Keywords: western policies; EU; US; Hamas & Hizbollah; Palestine; Lebanon; Middle East;

International policies and in particular EU and US policies towards Hamas and Hizbollah have had multiple and interlocking effects in the last two years. Most visibly, western policies have impacted upon the two movements themselves, on the domestic governance systems in Palestine and Lebanon, and on the relations between Hamas and Hizbollah and their respective domestic political rivals. In turn, they have also had an impact on the conflicts between Israel and Palestine/Lebanon, and on the mediating roles of the international community. The balance sheet is far from positive. Paradoxically, western policies have often hampered the quest for international peace, democracy and good governance, as well as inter- and intra-state reconciliation. This Policy Brief offers a comparative analysis of the impact of western policies on three principal domestic and international dimensions of the Middle Eastern conundrum: the transformation and popularity of Hamas and Hizbollah, Lebanese and Palestinian governance and intra-Lebanese and Palestinian reconciliation.

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№137. Decentralisation of Serbia: The Minority Dimension

№137. Decentralisation of Serbia: The Minority Dimension

Author(s): Beáta Huszka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; decentralisation; minorities;

This policy brief argues that the decentralisation of Serbia by degating more authority to municipalities could benefit minority groups that constitute a local majority. Although there are three such minority communities living in Serbia, the Bosniaks in Sandzak, the Albanians in Presevo Valley and the Hungarians in Vojvodina, the paper focuses on the first two groups, because their problems could potentially destabilise Serbia and the wider region. Thus, addressing the root causes of tensions in these two regions is an urgent task. Moreover, not only would minorities gain from sound decentralisation – all municipalities would do so regardless of ethnicity. Ultimately, decentralisation would be an essential step in Serbia’s democratisation process, following the example of other Central and East European countries.

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№138. The EU and Uzbekistan: Where to go from here?

№138. The EU and Uzbekistan: Where to go from here?

Author(s): Michael Hall / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Uzbekistan; Karimov; Uzbek regime;

In 2005, following the suppression of the Andijon uprising, the European Union, alone among world powers, took a necessary and principled stance towards the regime of Uzbekistan’s President Islom Karimov. A visa ban was imposed on officials believed to be involved in the indiscriminate killing of mostly unarmed civilians, an embargo was placed on arms shipments to Uzbekistan and high-level bilateral relations were frozen. Now, almost two years later, the strain in relations appears to be taking its toll on both sides. The Uzbek government has made tentative overtures to the EU, and there are indications that some in the EU are willing to accept such overtures at face value in the rush to normalise relations, often citing security and energy concerns, as well as ‘progress’ in the sphere of human rights. Unfortunately, arguments that Uzbekistan can meaningfully contribute to European security – of any kind – and that the Karimov regime is willing to reform do not stand up to closer examination. While it is to be welcomed that Germany chose to make Central Asia a foreign policy priority during its Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007, any normalisation of relations must be contingent not on promises or cosmetic changes from Uzbekistan, but on concrete measures taken to improve the lives of its citizens. To accept anything less would be to commit a grave disservice to ordinary citizens, and would be devastating to the EU’s credibility.

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№139. Security Challenges in Central Asia. Implications for the EU’s Engagement Strategy

№139. Security Challenges in Central Asia. Implications for the EU’s Engagement Strategy

Author(s): Daniel Kimmage / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Asia; Security Challenges; extremism; smuggling; EU engagement;

Central Asia presents the European Union with a uniquely problematic set of security challenges. Enumerated in their most basic form, without reference to context, the challenges are formidable enough: the threat of violent extremism, a well established conduit for smuggling illegal narcotics and potential instability rife with the possibility of conflict and humanitarian catastrophe. But these challenges are not stand-alone issues that can be treated individually; they are embedded in a regional context that creates additional difficulties for engagement. Namely, while Central Asian states may share a common understanding of ‘security challenges’, that understanding differs considerably from accepted definitions within the EU. More importantly, the Central Asian states themselves have evolved in various directions since gaining independence in 1991, and it is by no means clear that a ‘regional policy’ is the most effective means by which to engage them.

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№160. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia

№160. Time to think of a strategic bargain with Russia

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU-Russia; US-Russia; foreign policy; energy policy; treaty; NATO; visa-free; Ukraine;

The recent past has been a miserable time for political relations between Russia and both the EU and the US. While business has been booming on the back of Russia’s huge gains from the skyrocketing price of oil and gas, the foreign policy scene has been desolate. All parties are contributing to the present grumbling dissatisfactions: Russia’s bullying foreign policy towards its smaller neighbors, its trouble-making over Kosovo and its ugly ultra-nationalist rhetoric, the EU’s inability to shape common positions towards Russia on either political or energy questions, the greatly damaged credibility of the present leadership of the United States, Russia’s complaints that it was cheated by NATO in the 1990s, the row over missile defences etc.

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№167. Post-mortem on Europe’s first war of the 21st century

№167. Post-mortem on Europe’s first war of the 21st century

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia and Russia; Saakashvili; oil and gas; EU-Ukraine;

The small war between Georgia and Russia from 8 to 22 August 2008 has shattered any remaining illusions over the frontiers of the normative map of Europe. All the primary parties have to be criticised: Russia for setting a trap for Saakashvili to fall into, the Georgian leadership for its astounding military and political blunder in falling into it, and the United States for having failed to restrain its protégé. The first consequence is that Georgia has paid the price of Saakashvili’s folly, with the definitive loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The second consequence is triggered by Russia’s continued occupation of strategic points in Georgia-proper, which means not peacekeeping but threatened strangulation of the Georgian economy and its role in the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian to the West. It also means that business as usual has become impossible, as already announced between NATO and Russia, and with more important decisions pending in both the EU and US. The third consequence is that the EU should immediately step up its policies to integrate Ukraine, with real perspectives of membership subject to the standard criteria. The fourth unknown consequence is how far this deteriorating process between Russia and the West will go. Russia may pretend, with its petropower and wealth, to be immune from any actions by the West, but beyond the short-term it is vulnerable. Whatever these unknowns, already Russia has crossed a red line with its strategic occupation of Georgia-proper, rather than the option just to push Georgia out of South Ossetia. This latter option would have met with widespread understanding internationally. But with its chosen option Russia has placed itself in another category, which is a throwback to earlier times, and totally incompatible with the political and moral principles of modern Europe.

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№168. Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative

№168. Al Qaeda in the West as a Youth Movement: The Power of a Narrative

Author(s): Olivier Roy / Language(s): English

Keywords: West; Al-Qaeda; youth movements; migration; Islamic radicalisation; terrorism;

Why do we bother, in Europe, about ‘Islamic radicalisation’? The answer seems obvious. There are at least two good reasons: one is terrorism, with its security implications; the other is the issue of integrating second-generation migrants in Europe, apparently the most fertile ground for recruiting terrorists. For most observers, the link between terrorism and integration is a given fact. Al Qaeda-type terrorist activities carried out either in Europe, or by European residents and citizens abroad, are seen as the extreme form, and hence as a logical consequence, of Islam related radicalisation. There is a teleological approach consisting of looking in retrospect at every form of radicalisation and violence associated with the Muslim population in Europe as a harbinger of terrorism.

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№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

№175. Recalibrating EU Policy towards the Western Balkans

Author(s): Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU policy; Western Balkans; pre-accession strategy; Eurozone; trade policy;

The time is not only ripe but pressing for the EU and the states of the Western Balkans to recalibrate and reinforce the current pre-accession strategy. Trade policy should be moved beyond existing free trade commitments for all the Western Balkans to enter the customs union of the EU and Turkey. Eurozone doctrine should be adapted to realities. Rather than regarding the use of the euro by Montenegro and Kosovo as an unfortunate turn of events, the costs and benefits of unilateral adoption of the euro by not-yet member states of the region should be more openly appraised, and the option to ‘euroise’ recognised as a possibility. It is good that the EU has moved at the declaratory level towards visa ‘liberalisation’, which means scrapping visas rather than just ‘facilitation’ measures. However the Commission has not yet published guidelines or timelines for this. The region should be put on track for access to the Structural Funds on terms and scales progressively approaching those from which new member states such as Bulgaria and Romania already benefit. The ratio of these aid receipts between the new member states and the Western Balkans is currently 4:1; the former are receiving more than they can handle efficiently, whereas the Western Balkans have huge unsatisfied needs. Overall the case is made for significant moves towards ‘functional membership’ of the whole of the region with the EU, which would be a highly useful advance, irrespective of how or when the EU overcomes its Lisbon Treaty hiatus.

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№180. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

№180. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author(s): Elena Gnedina,Michael Emerson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Gas transit; consortium; Ukraine; Russia; EU;

The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans- Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politically and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU-Ukraine- Russia energy triangle.

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№215. How to Change the EU Treaties. An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

№215. How to Change the EU Treaties. An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

Author(s): Peadar ó Broin / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU treaties; revision; Lisbon Treaty; European parliament;

Less than a year has passed since the Lisbon Treaty became part of EU law, thereby bringing to an end almost a decade of intergovernmental wrangling over EU institutional reform. Yet despite its protracted ratification process and pledges from national administrations and EU authorities that the Lisbon Treaty had closed the issue of treaty reform for the foreseeable future, a number of modifications to the EU treaties are currently in the pipeline. One such proposal, relating to the number of seats in the European Parliament, has already left the drawing board and is presently pending national ratification. But perhaps most significant are those proposals that could amount to major treaty reform in areas such as the Franco-German Declaration of Deauville, which proposes significant changes in the area of economic and monetary union and, possibly also institutional reform. This Policy Brief provides an overview of the procedures that are available to change the Treaty of Lisbon. A companion piece looks at the political issues raised by the debate on a substantive treaty change that is currently underway.

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№216. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon treaty revision(s)

№216. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon treaty revision(s)

Author(s): Piotr Maciej Kaczyński,Peadar ó Broin / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lisbon Treaty; Deauville Declaration; ratification;

It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process. This paper explores the political difficulties of treaty reform in the context of five pending revisions. It first looks at the Deauville Declaration and its translation into political and legal reality. The second part is dedicated to the four other treaty revisions on the European agenda. Finally, it focuses on some of the potential problems in the ratification phase.

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№219. The Bosnian Hiatus: A Story of Misinterpretations

№219. The Bosnian Hiatus: A Story of Misinterpretations

Author(s): Goran Tirak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bosnian Hiatus; OHR; Bosnia and Herzegovina; EU Candidate; political will; Government;

After seven years of debate, the decision to close the office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR), an international body overseeing the peace implementation in Bosnia, has not yet been implemented. Bosnia is a potential EU candidate, but the majority of member states do not consider Bosnia capable of negotiating membership with the Union while the OHR remains the supreme authority governing the country. However, there was never enough political will on the part of any of the actors to bring about closure of the OHR.

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№220. Europe’s Gas Supply Security: Rating Source Country Risk

№220. Europe’s Gas Supply Security: Rating Source Country Risk

Author(s): Henry François-Loïc / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: Europe; Gas supply security; Natural gas resources; Central Asian question; Russia-Ukraine; global gas market;

Europe is surrounded by abundant natural gas resources; physical availability is not in question. Beyond each EU country’s own supply vulnerability issues, the actual availability of supply in source countries might be hindered by their production policies, transit issues, or domestic or international conflicts. Geopolitical risks to future gas supplies from source countries to the EU exist both in theory and inreality, but basically two major types of risks need to be taken into account: source risks and transit risks.

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№221. Geopolitical Threats to Oil and the Functioning of the International Oil Market

№221. Geopolitical Threats to Oil and the Functioning of the International Oil Market

Author(s): Giacomo Luciani / Language(s): English

Keywords: Geopolitical threats; Oil; International oil market; Military threats; Energy;

There is no easy and immediate connection between resource nationalism or political instability and global supply of oil and gas. This is emphatically not because political developments are irrelevant for influence is highly variable and unpredictable.

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№222. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

№222. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

Author(s): Andrew Macintosh / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security; Europe's Gas supply; EU vulnerability; natural gas market; Ukraine-Russia gas crisis;

Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have and an impact on the EU.

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№223. Europe's Coal Supply Security: Obstacles to Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

№223. Europe's Coal Supply Security: Obstacles to Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

Author(s): Christian von Hirschhausen,Clemens Haftendorn,Johannes Herold,Franziska Holz,Anne Neumann,Sophia Rüster / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe's coal supply security; carbon capture; transport and storage; steam coal; energy sources;

Europe faces a paradox with respect to coal supply security. On the one hand, coal is reliable fossil fuel, with ample reserves available from a large number of producers.

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