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Central Asia 2030...

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Alain Délétroz,Marlène Laruelle,Nargis Kassenova,Shairbek Juraev / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

Novels, academic literature and cinema all tend to take a bleak view in forecasting the future. Futuristic novels from the 1920s and 1930s, such as We by Yevgeny Zamyatin and Brave New World by Aldous Huxley, paint a grim picture of a unified, all-encompassing state that controls people’s lives and thoughts: the perfect authoritarian state. In the 1990s, in the less fantastic, more realistic field of academic international policy, Samuel Huntington predicted a clash of civilisations and Francis Fukuyama’s more upbeat The End of History? prophesied that liberal democracy would become the main form of government in the world, ending ideological competition. This would bring an end to history, leaving only events rather than indepth developments. Meanwhile, Hollywood cinema during the last decade has further developed the disaster genre. More movies have as their central theme devastating climate change, the global spread of deadly viruses or nuclear catastrophe. With the possible exception of Fukuyama, who later toned down his hopes for the triumph of democracy, few of these works have presented positive outlooks on the future.

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Czech Presidency overwhelmed by challenges: Is Central Asia one of them?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Ona Juknevičienė,Aibek Tilebaliev,Gulnura Toralieva,Anvar Kamolidinov,Charlote Adriaen / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

Every member state that chairs the EU Council must strike a balance between the policies it wants to develop and the immediate crises that need to be dealt with. The active French EU chairmanship served to increase the visibility of France and its president, which also helped the EU to be seen as a more active and influential player on the international stage. However, this has not made matters easier for the Czechs, who are at the EU helm until mid-2009. Whereas Sarkozy’s main immediate crises were of a financial nature, preceded by the August Russia-Georgia war, the Czechs have already been confronted with two major EU foreign policy matters from the outset: the Israeli Gaza strip offensive and the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute. The Czech team may well end up continually dealing with one crisis after another instead of pushing ahead with further European integration, increasing the effectiveness of the Brussels institutions and developing foreign and energy policies.

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Discussing human rights with Central Asia is not enough

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Tika Tsertsvadze,Veronika Szente Goldston,Umida Niazova,Farid Tuhbatullin / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

Central Asia is probably the most authoritarian region in the world. According to Freedom House’s 2014 ‘Nations in Transit’ report, the level of democracy has improved marginally in Kyrgyzstan and declined slightly in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, although in all three countries the record remains troubling. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were already at the bottom of the list and have thus remained so. Four out of the five Central Asian regimes are seen as consolidated authoritarian regimes, with Kyrgyzstan faring slightly better as a semi-consolidated authoritarian regime. These types of regimes are normally bad news for human rights. Central Asia is no exception. Reports about attacks against LGBTs in Kyrgyzstan, repression of civil society in Kazakhstan, torture in Tajikistan, travel restrictions in Turkmenistan and forced labour in Uzbekistan are commonplace.

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East Meets West - Reorienting the EU’s Central Asia Strategy

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Johannes Linn,Natalia Mirimanova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

The European Union approved its first Central Asia strategy document in June 2007 for the period 2007-2013. From the EU’s perspective, the Central Asia Strategy (CAS) rounded out the strategic approach towards its Eastern neighbours, which includes its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), its Eastern Partnership (EaP) and its bilateral relationship with Russia enshrined in the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which is currently subject to negotiation for a successor agreement. The CAS represents significant progress in focusing explicit attention on Central Asia as a region of significance for Europe, and in spelling out the key objectives and instrumentalities.

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Environmental Security in Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Nafisa Hasanova,Laura Rio,Sébastien Peyrouse,Marlène Laruelle / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

Landlocked Central Asia is home to two major rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, as well as two inland seas, the Caspian and Aral. But water resources in the region are disputed. The Caspian Sea is heavily polluted and the Aral Sea is on the verge of extinction. Massive irrigation systems were developed in the past to sustain water-intensive crops such as cotton, wheat and rice in the steppes and deserts of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. These systems have caused Central Asia’s largest environmental disaster – the drying up of Aral Sea – and they have the potential to further threaten the livelihoods of Central Asia’s population.

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Finland and Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Heidi Hautala,Tuula Yrjölä / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

The European Union’s engagement in Central Asia largely depends on the national policies of member states and donor support. The amount of development assistance provided by all EU member states combined roughly equals that of the European Commission. Meanwhile, European governments’ (especially Germany) diplomatic presence and project engagement in the region by far outweighs the EU’s institutional presence. Finland is one of the most active European countries in Central Asia. The Nordic country has traditionally assumed a leading position in European policies towards Russia and supporting research on the ‘East’ and now has also taken a keen interest in Central Asian countries. In 2008 Finland stepped up its activity in the region through its ‘Wider Europe Initiative’. In terms of development support, Finland seems to have taken over Sweden’s role in Central Asia as the leading Scandinavian donor after the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) withdrew its presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2010.

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From Central Asia into EurAsia

Author(s): Michael Emerson,Iqbol Qoraboyev,Maxim Ryabkov,Marlène Laruelle,Alisher Ilkhamov / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

Having recently spent some time in all five states of Central Asia on the EUCAM project monitoring the EU’s strategy there I am persuaded that the regional dimension to this strategy needs reconsideration. The EU wishes to foster enlightened regional cooperation among the five states and allocates 30% of its budget to regional projects. The EU comes to the region with a presumption that regional cooperation leading maybe even to regional integration is a good idea. But has the regional dimension to the EU Central Asia strategy been well conceived for the 21st century when the map of Eurasia is being radically redrawn, after the 20th century when Central Asia was a region integrated into the Soviet Union, sealed off from the rest of the world?

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Getting to know each other: the EU and civil society in Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Aigerim Duimagambetova,Bauke Snoep,Adil Nurmakov,Jiří Kopal,Nafisa Hasanova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

Forging links between European civil society organisations and their counterparts in Central Asia is no easy task. Delivering on EU financial support to NGOs and other civil groupings would appear to be even more of a challenge. The EU tries to achieve a lot in terms of assistance but it risks spreading limited resources too thinly, which could limit impact on all fronts. Assistance consists of a variety of instruments, mechanisms and support programmes, such as the Food Security Programme; ‘Central Asia invest’; democracy promotion through the European Initiative for Democracy and Human rights and direct budget support in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Choices need to be made about where the EU should place its money. Not easy, since all subjects and programmes seem worthy at first sight. What about support for civil society?

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Harvesting the ‘White Gold’

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Sébastien Peyrouse,Marlène Laruelle,Tika Tsertsvadze / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

How do you know that your sweater has not been made of cotton harvested by Uzbek children or produced by their counterparts in a Bangladeshi workshop? You don’t. Many companies do not carefully check through a ‘track and trace’ system if their products are produced by forced or child labour. At the same time many governments do not follow the labour laws that they signed up to. The sad truth is that fashion demands in the West still largely prevail over human rights in developing countries. But there is progress. This month 60 clothing firms agreed to boycott products with Uzbek cotton until hard proof exists that Uzbekistan has stopped child labour. This applies at least to those products in which Uzbek cotton can be traced which is often not possible yet because the link between cotton traders and Asian factories is often not clear to Western brands. The pledge of the clothing industry was spurred by the decision of the organisers of New York’s fashion week to cancel Gulnara Karimova’s show due to concerns over child labour. Unknowingly the Uzbek president’s daughter and ambassador to Spain and the UN in Geneva has helped to highlight her country’s human rights shortcomings.

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How ‘central’ is Central Asia in the EU-Asia connectivity strategy?

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Andreas Marazis,Boris Iarochevich,Frans-Paul van der Putten,Jacopo Maria Pepe,Anastasiya Ten,Sabrinisso Valdosh,Gulnura Chekirova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

At the end of 2018, the European Union (EU) presented its Europe-Asia connectivity strategy (CS). The CS applies to transport, energy, and digital networks, and includes a human dimension. It is also linked to several ongoing and planned EU projects and processes. While it has at its core the promotion of EU trade, the CS appears to be very broad and quite open to interpretation. So far, the CS has raised more questions than provided answers. The main geo-political question is whether there is a real need for a connectivity strategy with Asia or if this is the EU’s response to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). While most observers seem to lean towards the latter, given Asia’s rising economic importance, it is still unclear how the EU plans to compete with China in Asia or if the EU will try to establish synergies around concrete issues between the CS and BRI.

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NATO and Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Alexander Cooley,Marlène Laruelle,Sébastien Peyrouse / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has a keen interest in Central Asia due to the security and stability risks the region generates, as well as the negative spill-over effects from Afghanistan that impact upon the region. Although all five Central Asian Republics take part in NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP), concrete cooperation remains limited and is mostly oriented towards maintaining a dialogue. The Central Asian regimes feel they need to balance security cooperation with NATO with that of Russia (the Collective Security Treaty Organisation) and Russia-China (the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), but at the same time they exploit NATO’s and the U.S.’s dependence on keeping the Northern Distribution Network alive for troops and supplies to Afghanistan. Meanwhile NATO seeks to balance the demands of hard security interests with not losing sight of Central Asia’s deploring democracy and human rights record. However, cooperation is clearly weighted in favour of NATO’s practical interests: the ISAF mission in Afghanistan largely defines NATO relations with the Central Asian region.

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New EU Strategy for Central Asia: First reactions

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Fabienne Bossuyt,Nargis Kassenova,Marlène Laruelle,Tika Tsertsvadze / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

I always have a ‘to-do list’ at work. And, alike most people, before I complete one task, I already have a few others to add. So in order to prioritise, my list is actually three lists: one with bullet points with what needs to be done this week (make phone calls, answer emails); one with those items that have a deadline down the road (project report, call for proposals); and a sort of wish-list with those things I would like to do when and if time allows (develop a new idea). The new EU strategy for Central Asia, adopted by the EU Council on 17 June, reads a bit like this. It includes things that the EU will do (‘the EU will strengthen cooperation on vocational education and training’); things to continue to address over the coming years (‘the EU will continue to promote respect for human rights’); and matters to devote attention to in due course (‘the EU will aim to encourage more sustainable and inclusive growth models in the region’). In sum, rather than a strategy, it is an approach or more simply, a ‘to-do list’.

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On a positive note...

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Peter Burian,Nargis Kassenova,Shairbek Juraev,Alisher Ilkhamov / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2017

Central Asia receives rather limited attention when compared to other parts of the world, and when it does, it is often not good news: authoritarian regimes, human rights offenses, radical Islam, and poverty. Indeed, the region does face a series of security, economic, environmental, and humanitarian challenges. The implication of Kyrgyz and Uzbek citizens in the recent St. Petersburg and Stockholm terrorist attacks has further deteriorated the region’s image within European circles as a far-away, dark, and underdeveloped place that exports radicalism. However, this is a misconception. In Central Asia, moderate Islam is the rule and radicalism the rare exception. Beyond a hospitable population and stunning landscapes, in Central Asia two opportunities stand out.

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Rule of Law support for Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Tika Tsertsvadze,Mikko Puumalainen,Jörg Pudelka,Xavier Barré,Steve Swerdlow / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

Every leader, whether authoritarian or democratic, would agree that the rule of law is needed in managing a state. They might disagree, however, on the precise meaning and purpose of ‘rule of law’. In developed democracies, the basis of the state is Montesquieu’s separation of the executive, legislative and judicial powers. Judicial independence is even seen as the most important asset for ensuring the wellbeing of the state and its people. Nonetheless, checks and balances also exist, in which the three powers interact and carry out oversight of the others. Where judicial power or rule of law is not sufficiently independent from the executive or the legislature and cannot exercise oversight over executive power, the rule of law becomes the law of the ruler. This is the underlying problem affecting the judicial sector in Central Asia, where courts and judges often serve at the pleasure of the powers that be rather than as an independent force acting for the state and its people.

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Security and development key in new EUCAM programme

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Pierre Morel,Alain Délétroz / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2011

It is a pleasure to introduce a new EUCAM Watch as part of the new Europe-Central Asia Monitoring programme. Much has happened in Central Asia since February 2010 when we concluded our first EUCAM cycle, especially in the sphere of security and stability. Most notable of course are the radical changes that took place in Kyrgyzstan which were quickly followed by an outbreak of ethnic violence in June last year. Almost a year after the violence, this small mountainous republic is slowly regaining some stability having installed a new Constitution and conducted peaceful and reasonably free and fair elections. While attention has been devoted to installing a new – more democratic and less corrupt – government in reaction to Bakiyev’s ousting, the root causes of the ethnic violence need to be further addressed in a follow up to the Kiljunen report. Distrust between Kyrgyz and Uzbek populations will threaten the southwest of the country as long as no intense reconciliation process is embarked upon.

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Spain and Kazakhstan in the chair

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Nicolas de Pedro,Nafisa Hasanova,Gulnura Toralieva,Nargis Kassenova,Aigerim Duimagambetova,Luis Felipe Fernández de la Peña / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

2010 promises to be an interesting year for relations between Europe and Central Asia. The EU, guided by the Spanish Presidency, plans to initiate a review of the Strategy for Central Asia and is likely to build further on the political foundations that have been laid over the last two years. The OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) welcomes Kazakhstan as its first Central Asian chair and hopes that Astana can construct bridges between the ‘eastern’ and ‘western’ members that have been at odds over the last few years resulting in a weakened organisation. Both Spain and Kazakhstan acknowledge the importance of closely coordinating their leading positions next year and have held consultations to prepare well. Not only because Madrid and Astana maintain strong and friendly ties but also because it was during Spain’s OSCE Chairmanship in 2007 that a long-disputed decision was taken over which countries would lead the OSCE from 2009 to 2011.

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The energy problematique in EU-Central Asia relations

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Michael Denison,Vaclav Hubinger,Jacqueline Hale,Rainer Behnke,Natalia Mirimanova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

In discussing the opportunities for importing Central Asian energy opinion and policymakers can be divided in two groups. Those that are gloomy and sceptic on the prospects of Central Asia as an interesting energy market for the EU and those that are less gloomy (though not optimistic). In the EU Strategy for Central Asia, energy is one of the seven priorities. The EU states to be interested in Central Asian gas while it also offers assistance to Central Asia in developing exploitation of energy resources. Over the last few years the EU has stepped up talks with Central Asian leaders, especially on energy relations. EU Special Representative Pierre Morel is known for his ‘realism’ in pursuit of EU energy interests and has worked to strengthen ties that give EU companies better access. Also Memorandums of Understanding concerning energy were signed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Regardless of all this the EU has little concrete projects or deals to show. Both in working with the energy-rich Central Asian regimes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in increasing exploitation of energy resources or in actually importing energy. Kazakhstan is the positive exception since practical ties are strengthened although Kazakh oil export to the EU remains modest. Brussels and other European capitals do not seem able to agree on key questions with relation to Central Asia’s energy potential. Only in case the following four questions are answered positively might the gloomy become less so.

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The Launch of EU Central Asia Monitoring

Author(s): Neil Melvin,Nargis Kassenova / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2008

Following the launch of the EU Strategy for Central Asia in 2007, relations with the countries of the region have at last been acknowledged as a priority for Brussels and an integral part of the Union’s eastern policies. Its adoption has been seen as the ‘final piece’ in the jigsaw of EU policies toward the former states of the Soviet Union: the European Neighbourhood Policy, the Black Sea Synergy, the Baku Initiative, the Eastern Partnership (currently under development) and now the Strategy for Central Asia. Together, this complex of policy initiatives marks a strong commitment to strengthening the role of the EU in Eurasia at a time of growing political and economic uncertainty and when the importance of the countries of the region is increasing, both for energy and security reasons.

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Towards a new EU Strategy for Central Asia

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Nargis Kassenova,Marlène Laruelle,Fabienne Bossuyt,Luca Anceschi,Jeremy Smith / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

Ten years after the inception of the European Union’s (EU) Strategy for Central Asia, in June 2017 the European Council initiated a process to develop a new strategy by 2019. The ‘reviewed and renewed’ strategy will take into account geopolitical developments, Central Asian preferences as well as the EU’s 2016 Global Strategy. This process offers an opportunity for all stakeholders – Central Asian governments, EU member states, human rights defenders and the research community, among others – to play a role in re-shaping the EU’s policy towards the region. After a decade of relationship-building and cooperation, it is time to evaluate what worked and what did not, and gather and apply lessons learnt to improve the new strategy amidst a drastically different internat ional environment.

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Uzbekistan opening up

Author(s): Jos Boonstra,Andreas Marazis,Peter Burian,Alisher Ilkhamov,Alisher Siddique,Zaynab Dost,Sevara Khamidova,Diana Mamatova,Sergey Marinin,Nushofarin Noziri / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

Uzbekistan has begun to take steps towards openness, and economic and political reform. Since the death of President Islam Karimov in September 2016 and the parliamentary appointment of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as the new President of the Republic, Uzbekistan has improved relations with its neighbours and started a process of internal reform. Despite these positive signs, it is still too early to estimate the extent of Uzbekistan’s political transformation over the coming years.

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Series:EUCAM Watch