Search results for: ESI Discussion Papers in Series Title

A PORTRAIT OF DECEPTION. Monitoring Azerbaijan or Why Pedro Agramunt should resign

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

There are very few fellow members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) who have been to Azerbaijan as regularly over the past decade as Pedro Agramunt, the conservative Spanish senator, a businessman from Valencia. Agramunt has been consistent in this approach to Azerbaijan: from the very beginning of his relationship with Baku he has been a defender of the Aliyev regime. The latest monitoring report is his masterpiece. || The Agramunt/Grech report is supposed to assess whether Azerbaijan, as a member of the Council of Europe since 2001, has fulfilled the commitments it took upon itself when it joined the organisation. In fact, it is a sophisticated effort to hide a simple truth, a portrait of deception: in all areas a democracy cannot do without – from free and fair elections to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly or basic political and human rights, including the rule of law through an independent judiciary – the situation in Azerbaijan, already terrible a decade ago, is even worse today.

After the Bonn Powers. OPEN LETTER TO LORD ASHDOWN

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2003

We would like to explain why we think that the extraordinary powers of the High Representative are no longer an appropriate tool of international assistance to Bosnia. We believe that they have become counterproductive – an obstacle to the development of effective institutions and a healthy democratic process. We would also like to put forward for your consideration a concrete proposal for how the powers of the High Representative should be phased out. (beginning of the Letter)

AHMETI’s VILLAGE. The Political Economy of Interethnic Relations in Macedonia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2002

This report explores the political economy of ethnic relations in Macedonia – the “other conflict” of diminishing resources and collapsing lifestyles which so often goes unnoticed. … It looks at a region of 52,000 people in Western Macedonia, inhabited by 50 percent ethnic Albanians and 40 percent ethnic Macedonians. Like much of Macedonia, Kicevo (Albanian: Kercova) has a deeply rooted tradition of ethnic coexistence. There has been no communal violence in this region for decades, and it remained peaceful even at the height of last year’s fighting. Yet it exhibits a diversity of economic and social patterns among its communities which seems programmed to generate inter-ethnic suspicion and fear.

AUSTRIA’S OCTOBER ELECTIONS. Implications for the Turkey Debate

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2006

The right-wing parties (FPÖ, BZÖ) have increased their votes and have become even more aggressively opposed to Turkish accession – but they are also more isolated now than before. || The issue of Turkish accession has figured most prominently in the campaign of the FPÖ. Opposition to any negotiations with Turkey has been the main demand of this party and it is listed as the main issue on the party’s own website. || This position is hardly surprising. The FPÖ is opposed to the European Union. It has most recently objected to the ratification of the accession treaties with Bulgaria and Romania (as the only party in the Austrian parliament). It is opposed to foreigners and dislikes Muslims. || Its position, however, is unlikely to have any direct political consequences. All other parties have excluded the option of forming a coalition with the FPÖ under its current leader Heinz-Christian Strache. || Jörg Haider, the key figure (but not official leader) of the BZÖ, has often changed his positions. In the late 1980s he was for Austria joining the EU, and in the early 1990s he was against. In the late 1990s he opposed EU enlargement, while since late 1999 he has supported it. In 2004, he argued for Turkey starting negotiations. Since 2005, he has argued against it. His influence is also seriously diminished as a result of these elections.

AUTONOMY, DEPENDENCY, SECURITY: The Montenegrin Dilemma

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2000

Since the Montenegrin government distanced itself from the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, during last year’s Kosovo war, Montenegro has found itself in the international spotlight. Montenegrin politicians have been courted by the West. The United States and the European Union have offered rapid and substantial financial aid – more than 300 million German marks in 1999 and 2000 – to cushion the economic effects of the conflict and the country’s international isolation. NATO officials have repeated ominous but ambiguous warnings to Milosevic not to intervene. Despite this, however, little is know about how Montenegrin society really functions .… The implication is that Western policy in Montenegro should be primarily policy for Montenegro,rather than part of an international campaign to unseat Milosevic. If the international communityfocuses on the needs of Montenegrin society in the coming years, the imperatives are to preserve afunctioning democratic system where elections continue to matter, and to set about the Herculean taskof economic transition.

BOOKS AND TEACHERS. The Great Debate on Education Kosovo needs in 2015

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2014

The time is ripe for a substantive national debate on the future of Kosovo schools – how to prepare the next generation of Kosovars to meet professional challenges in an uncertain future. || Any education reform must be debated widely in order to convince not just civil servants in the capital, but thousands of teachers and school officials as well. What do teachers in different schools across the country think constitutes good education? What do they think they are preparing students for? What do students or their parents expect? The reform must make sense to school directors, teachers, students and families of students across Kosovo. It must start from where Kosovo is today.

BOSNIA AS WUNDERKIND OF DOING BUSINESS. Outline of 14 steps to take

Author(s): Adnan Ćerimagić,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2015

„To be frank, let us note what we can and cannot do. We can advise you on how to improve Bosnia’s ranking within one year. We do not promise that this will actually lead to any more jobs or investment. And yet, it is time for some surprising good news from Bosnia. What the European Commission has asked you to do you can do, and more. And then turn to policies which might actually make a real difference in the long run.“ (from the letter of ESI to the members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Hercegovia)

BOSNIAN VISA BREAKTHROUGH. Detailed Scorecard of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s results in meeting the EU Schengen White List Conditions

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2009

This record challenges the image of a dysfunctional country dominated by elites incapable of compromise. It underlines the force of EU soft power, if used in the right way. Recent months have shown that when there is a real incentive and credible conditionality, based on European standards, things can move forward surprisingly quickly. 2009 might yet see a fundamental turning point in Bosnia's history: the end of the international protectorate (and of the mandate of the Office of the High Representative) and the promise to overcome the visa fence that continues to isolate the country. || In May 2009 the European Commission was strict. Now that Bosnia has delivered on its commitment, will European institutions be fair? Before this recent breakthrough, the Commission was looking at mid-2010 as a possible date for a Commission proposal to lift the visa obligation for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens, provided that all conditions are met. Due to the lengthy EU decision-making process on visa policy, which requires an opinion by the European Parliament on the Commission proposal followed by a vote in the Council, this would mean that visa-free travel would become a reality around October/November next year – one year from now. || This is too late. Bosnia deserves that to be rewarded for its achievements earlier. European Enlargement Commissioner promised Bosnia and Albania that “the speed of these countries’ progress towards visa-free travel is in the hands of their own leaders.” The leaders have done their part of the deal – now it is up to the Commission to deliver on its commitment.

BREAKING OUT OF THE BALKAN GHETTO: Why IPA should be changed

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2005

ESI is proposing in this paper that the potential candidates in the Western Balkans should be given the chance to progress towards EU membership on an equal footing with previous candidates. Serbia-Montenegro and Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania should be given at least the same kind of support in 2007 as Bulgaria and Romania were given in 1997. If member-state building were to begin in 2007, it may be possible for countries of the region to achieve EU membership by 2014, in accordance with the ambitious agenda set out by the International Commission for the Balkans.The draft IPA regulation should therefore be changed to make pre-accession assistance available to both official and potential candidates. The trigger should be the signing of Stabilization and Association Agreements (expected in 2006), rather than formal candidate status. This would not increase the volume of assistance in the short term, as each country would require time to put in place the structures needed to benefit from this assistance. However, it is critical that they begin the process of member-state building immediately.

CAVIAR DIPLOMACY. How Azerbaijan silenced the Council of Europe - Part 1

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2012

Caviar diplomacy was about winning and retaining the stamp of legitimacy conferred by Council of Europe membership. Created in 1949, the Council of Europe is not Europe’s most influential club. Indeed, faced with the European Union’s bewildering institutional architecture, many of Europe’s citizens have long since forgotten about it. But in its quiet and unassuming way, the Council of Europe stands for democracy and human rights. For more than half a century, it has symbolised the values that bind Europe together. To be a member of the Council of Europe is to be part of the European family. || Over the course of the project, we spoke to a large number of international officials, Azerbaijanis, members of PACE and people involved in election observation missions in Azerbaijan. We studied transcripts of Council of Europe debates on Azerbaijan and dissected election observation reports by international monitors.

CUTTING THE LIFELINE. Migration, Families and the Future of Kosovo

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2006

If there is one universal conviction about post-war Kosovo, it is that its economy is fueled by remittances from the diaspora. Policy makers make the comfortable assumption that the diaspora and its fabled generosity will continue not only to plug a major gap in Kosovo’s balance of payments, but also to provide an informal social safety net for poor households, making up for the lack of a welfare state. || This paper argues that times are changing. Remittances have fallen significantly from their post-war high, when they funded the reconstruction of homes across Kosovo. The reason is clear. Since NATO intervention in 1999, migration has swung into reverse, as more than 100,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees have been obliged to return from Germany in particular. Furthermore, the door to continuing migration is now shut, with only the lucky few with close family in the diaspora still able to go abroad through family reunification schemes. As a direct consequence, fewer than 15 percent of Kosovo families now receive regular remittances, and all the signs are that this is decreasing. The lifeline that kept rural Kosovo afloat for the past generation is being cut. This is the legacy facing a post-status Kosovo. || This report contains an unwelcome message for EU member states: it is simply incoherent to invest hundreds of millions of euros in the stabilisation of Kosovo, and at the same time to slam the door so abruptly on any further migration. It is even more incoherent that this is happening to a small society like Kosovo (less than 2 million inhabitants) at the very moment when millions of Romanians, Bulgarians, Latvians or Poles are finding employment in different parts of the European Union. If Europe is serious about finding a lasting political solution for Kosovo, it will need to identify ways in which rural Kosovars can find temporary work abroad. The alternative is to send ever more policemen to Kosovo to deal with a new generation of angry and desperate young men.

De-INDUSTRIALISATION and its CONSEQUENCES. A Kosovo Story. (Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the EU Pillar of UNMIK European Stability Initiative)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2002

In pre-socialist times, the town of Peja (known in Serbian as Peć), was a lively regional centre of around 16,000 inhabitants, housing a community of merchants and craftsmen, several hotels and restaurants, and a few larger enterprises: a stream-driven flour mill, two timber mills and a small brick factory. Peja was first connected to the railway in July 1929 and electrification followed in the same year, with a small hydroelectric power-station on the White Drini River. Today, after five decades of socialist development and more than ten years of post-socialist decay, Peja’s economy is back where it started early last century. Amid the ruins of an industrial sector which has entirely collapsed, one can find economic structures strikingly similar to those of the pre-socialist 1930s: shops, tradesmen, hotels, and a handful of functioning industries: a saw mill, a bakery, a brewery and a brick factory. The transition from a pre-industrial agricultural economy to an urban manufacturing centre has failed.

DEMOCRACY, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF THE STABILITY PACT FOR SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE. A Framework for Debate

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Minna Järvenpää,Gerald Knaus,Ivan Krastev / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2001

Regional co-operation will only lead to meaningful results if it is fully supported by regional governments, which means it must help them deliver concrete benefits to their citizens. With this in mind, and drawing lessons from the experience of post-war European integration, this study proposes an approach based on functional integration in politically important sectors of the economy. A concrete proposal is to commit Western donors substantially to increase support to regional governments in reforming their energy sectors in return for a commitment by these governments to create a genuine common market, integrated with that of the European Union. … The study also proposes significantly more support for institution building to strengthen the capacity of states in the region to fight trans-border crime, while holding out the concrete promise of easier access to the European Union for their citizens. The role of the Stability Pact Office would be to identify gaps and shortcomings in assistance in this field and to develop a concrete vision of increasing mobility while fighting criminal networks.

Discussion paper for the ESI-SIIA Stockholm Seminar on Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Marcus Cox,Gerald Knaus / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2000

This paper, which draws on the first two papers in the ESI series Changing International Priorities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, seeks to discuss conditions for a successful medium-term, international strategy in Bosnia in advance of the next Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meeting.2 It considers international power in Bosnia and examines the task of state and institution building. It analyses the international agenda setting process and the role of the PIC, and it considers how to learn from the peace process’s success stories.

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE. Why Bosnian democracy will not end this October

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2018

In December 2016 the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declared parts of the national election law unconstitutional. Since then leading Bosnian Croat politicians have warned that this might make the implementation of the results of the upcoming October 2018 elections impossible. They claim that only a last-minute agreement on a new election law might prevent a deep crisis. These warnings are misleading. Bosnian democracy will not end in October. There is no institututional crisis. There is no reason to adopt changes to the Bosnian election law in a hurry a few months before elections. This short paper explains the background to Bosnia’s latest fake crisis – what it is about and why there is no need to intervene – in simple answers to seven questions.

GOVERNANCE AND DEMOCRACY in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Post-Industrial Society and the Authoritarian Temptation

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2004

In the summer of 2002, the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) approached the European Stability Initiative to conduct a Governance Assessment of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Governance Assessment was designed to study the evolution of government in Bosnia, and to “assess more fully the constraints on positive decision-making” across all levels of government in Bosnia. Its goal was to promote an open debate within Bosnian society on what constitutes good governance, in order to build up democratic pressures in favour of change.During the second half of 2002, using a team of Bosnian researchers, ESI carried out investigations across Bosnia and Herzegovina on the social and economic challenges facing the country, and how Bosnian governments are responding to them. The empirical research was concluded in October 2003, and the conclusions presented to a range of different audiences during 2003 and the first half of 2004, in Bosnia and Herzegovina and outside. This paper now presents this analytical work to a wider audience. Additional background material on the governance assessment is also available on the ESI website (www.esiweb.org). The views expressed in this report are those of ESI, and do not express the opinion of either DFID or the government of the United Kingdom.

Governance and development. A real life story of private sector growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. LESSONS FROM BOSNIA FOR KOSOVO. Part I

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2002

This report presents the results of a detailed study of the post-privatisation political economy in the municipality of Kalesija, one of Bosnia’s least developed rural areas. It is part of an extended ESI study of patterns of local development in South Eastern Europe for the Lessons Learned and Analysis Unit of the European Union Pillar of UNMIK, tracing the evolution of key actors and institutions and examining the role of local government in the emergence of the new private sector.1 By carrying out an exhaustive study of a particular locality, it is possible to assemble a picture of the economic transition process and draw lessons which may be generalisable across Bosnia and in other locations, particularly Kosovo.

HOUDINI IN BOSNIA. How to unlock the EU accession process

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2013

On 21 March 2011 the Council of the European Union stated that the SAA could only enter into force after Bosnian politicians made a credible effort to bring the country’s constitution in line with the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).7 On 16 October 2013 the European Commission published its annual report on Bosnia. || So far, however, these warnings have not been enough to reach an agreeement. A recent ESI report, “Lost in Bosnian labyrinth. Why the Sejdic-Finci case should not block an EU application” cites two reasons for this. The first is that what is being asked of Bosnian leaders has not been asked of other EU candidates. The second is that what is being asked of them is much easier said than done.

HOW ARE THEY DOING? European Commission assessments of North Macedonia, Serbia and Albania (April 2019)

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019

HOW TO IMPLEMENT THE EU-TURKEY STATEMENT. Phase II - Key facts and key steps

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English / Publication Year: 2019