Publisher: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

A looming crisis of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty: Sources and consequences

Author(s): Yury Fedorov / Language(s): English

Russia’s violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty (INF) confirms that Moscow sees nuclear weapons as a robust tool preventing NATO from militarily opposing the Russian military expansion in the strategic rim stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea. If Russia adds intermediate-range missiles to its armory the INF Treaty will collapse, thus challenging the USA and NATO with a dilemma: they could either to be reconciled with Russia’s growing military threat to Europe, or neutralize this threat by stationing American nuclear missiles near Russian borders. The countries of Central-Eastern Europe have to support deployment of new US nuclear weapons in Europe since it could be the only way to prevent a dangerous deterioration of the security landscape in the region.

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A promising beginning of negotiations of a convention banning nuclear weapons

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The first round of talks regarding the negotiations of a treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons (their use, production, ownership, etc.) took place on March 27–31, 2017, at the UN Headquarters in New York under the presidency of Ambassador Elayne Whyte Gómez of Costa Rica. The second, and final round of talks, during which the finalization and adoption of the proposed convention is expected, should take place in New York from June 15 to July 7, 2017. The aforementioned first round was preceded by an organizational meeting in New York on February 16, 2017, in the presence of representatives of more than 100 countries, at which the provisional agenda and the rules of procedure for the general meeting of the UN General Assembly were agreed. According to these rules, a two-thirds majority is necessary for decisions on important questions and a simple majority of all present members is required for procedural issues. In contrast to consensus decision-making, which is valid, for instance, for the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, no country present at the UN conference can veto an adopted decision.The first round of negotiations was attended by around 130 countries, and representatives of several organizations, such as the UN, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and a number of non-governmental organizations, as well as surviving victims of the US-caused nuclear explosion in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which are called Hibakusha in Japan. All countries that own nuclear weapons, as well as a large majority of Alliance states, including the Czech Republic, and partner countries relying on nuclear protection, especially protection by the US, boycotted the meeting. From the Alliance states, only the Netherlands attended, and from the European Union states, the already mentioned Netherlands, and also Austria, Sweden and Ireland participated. From the partner countries, Japan was present.

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ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”

Author(s): Yuri E. Fedorov / Language(s): English

The Obama administration recently suggested concluding a legally binding agreement on transparency that would confirm that American BMD does not pose a threat to Russia’s deterrence forces, and also concluding a framework agreement on further cutting Russian and American nuclear arsenals. The USA may be interested in reducing the tensions with Russia over the missile defense with a view to break the deadlock on a wide complex of hard security and proliferation issues, including the hot problems of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Iran and the North Korean nuclear programs, and also to ensure Russia’s support in managing regional crises – these days, especially that in Syria. Moscow probably agrees that it should negotiate a legally binding agreement on transparency and confidence building measures with the USA. At the same time Russia continues in asking for legally binding guarantees that the US BMD is not aimed against its strategic forces as the sine qua none of any other talks and agreements on nuclear weapons with the US. The Kremlin also may propose some trilateral consultations between the USA, Russia, and Europe on BMD with a view to involve some European circles that are skeptical about the missile defense in the debate. In a wider geopolitical context, Russia’s policy towards the BMD issue results from Moscow’s perception of the US quest for a compromise on strategic problems as a weakness. The US quest for a compromise may and most probably is used by Moscow to question the reliability of the American alliance obligations. It cannot be ruled out that there are plans for a certain “big deal” between the two countries, at the possibility of which Moscow hints. In the context of this deal, Russia would consent to new negotiations on further reductions of strategic nuclear weapons in exchange for the USA consenting to limit its non-nuclear strategic systems, take into account the conventional arms in Europe, limit the US naval activity in the seas around Europe and accept future Russian proposals on European security aimed at enfeebling NATO.

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Afghánská výzva

Author(s): Jan Eichler / Language(s): Czech

Vrcholná schůzka NATO, kterou v listopadu roku 2006 hostila Riga, zdůraznila, že „podstatnou prioritou“ Aliance pro nejbližší léta je přispět k míru a stabilitě v Afghánistánu a vytvořit tam stabilní, demokratickou a prosperující zemi zbavenou drog, terorismu a strachu. Proto se předpokládá výrazné navýšení nevojenské pomoci Afghánistánu a nedílně s tím se klade velký důraz na zkvalitnění činnosti spojeneckých vojáků, kteří v Afghánistánu působí v rámci ISAF pod mandátem RB OSN. Mise ISAF ale bude velmi náročná a často i nebezpečná pro všechny nasazené, pro vojáky, pro civilní odborníky a nakonec i pro nejvyšší činitele NATO. Všichni účastníci budou muset v prvé řadě překonávat řadu velice nepříznivých skutečností, jimiž jsou zejména odlehlost Afghánistánu, mimořádně náročné přírodní podmínky, velmi specifická mentalita tamního obyvatelstva a v neposlední řadě i agresivní a nanejvýš záludné postupy protikoaličních bojovníků. Teprve po jejich zvládnutí bude možné naplňovat pozitivní úkoly mise, které jsou zaměřeny na obnovu a rozvoj a jejichž naplnění by mělo obrovský význam nejen pro Afghánistán, ale i pro celý islámský svět.

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All’s wrong that starts wrong – withdrawals from the International Criminal Court

Author(s): Tamás Lattmann / Language(s): English

The Hague-based International Criminal Court, the world’s first permanent judicial forum, created in 1998 by the adoption of the Rome Statute, has been living difficult times during the past months. After years of struggle since its operations have started in 2002, the second half of 2016 has brought withdrawals, threats for withdrawals, and even a visibly collective strategy for a mass withdrawal of African states from the system. What keeps states in a similar structure, what makes them seriously consider a withdrawal, and what is the possible future of the International Criminal Court (ICC)?

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Attack on the CEU in Hungary. Attack only on academic freedom?

Author(s): Tamás Lattmann / Language(s): English

In 2014, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has declared to build an “illiberal state” in Hungary, while constantly referring to leaders like Vladimir Putin in Russia or Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey as examples. This has been seen by many as a gradual march toward authoritarianism. While this –and many other policies –have been heavily criticized by many ever since, these have gained a new momentum with the prime minister and his circles turning against the Central European University.

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Bordering the Central Mediterranean Search and Rescue Assemblage

Author(s): Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of 2015, the news about migrant boat disasters in the Mediterranean Sea have been filling the headlines of major national and international media. Horrible pictures of boat wrecks and floating bodies of migrants have made it to covers of well-known newspapers. Very soon, statistics suggesting that 2015 might be the deadliest year for migrants who have been crossing the Mediterranean Sea in search of a better life appeared. However, the death of so many migrants comes as a surprise, as the Mediterranean Sea belongs to one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Various different actors (national search and rescue bodies, merchant vessels, fishing boats, military vessels, civilian-volunteer manned vessels, NGO craft and boats under the Frontex mandate), bound by the international search and rescue legislation, can come to rescue migrants’ boats in distress. Since the international search and rescue obligation has not been always followed to the letter, this research has been dedicated to searching for an understanding of the inclusions and exclusions of actors in search and rescue operations in the Central Mediterranean Sea (an area between Northern Africa and Italy). It has also aimed to outline the boundaries that actors may face when entering or exiting the area of search and rescue. This research has conceptualized search and rescue as an assemblage composed of heterogeneous elements that entangle one another and that are entrusted with a strategic purpose. Moreover, it has specifically used Bruno Latour´s approach to assemblages and their mapping, as this has allowed the researcher to understand how inclusions and exclusions of actors in the assemblage arise and what constitutes the boundaries of the assemblage. It is argued that different elements of the search and rescue assemblage – such as legislation, actors’ scripts or their discursive strategies – can become means of both actors’ inclusion in and actors’ exclusion from the assemblage. These elements can at the same time become boundaries for involvement of actors in rescue operations. However, the irregular rhythms of actors’ inclusions and exclusions in search and rescue suggest that actors’ experience of political subjectivity can determine the shape of the assemblage and its boundaries. Furthermore, it is argued that the shape of the Central Mediterranean Search and Rescue assemblage can largely depend on the mechanisms of power being exercised within the assemblage. It is for the lack of power mechanisms that would force actors into the assemblage and also for the existence of mechanisms that make it less probable and more difficult for certain actors to get involved in search and rescue that so many migrants die on their way to Europe.

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Can the European Public Block the Enlargement to the Western Balkans?

Author(s): Anes Makul / Language(s): English

The EU enlargement has been questioned since the first enlargement round. Also, since the start of the global economic crisis, public support to further enlargement decreased significantly. Whether a turnaround in this trend will occur depends on whether there will be changes in several main dimensions. The EU and its member states, as well as the candidate and potential candidate states, need to improve their economic performances and provide opportunities and perspective to their younger generations. The political and economic performance of the newest member states, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, is a significant indicator that can shape the public opinion on further enlargement. The candidate and potential candidate states should be further encouraged and supported in their fulfilling of the accession criteria. The EU institutions and national governments should develop policies to explain to citizens the implications of further enlargement.

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Can the Necessary International Legal Framework to Achieve a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World Be Reached?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

If we look at the issue of nuclear disarmament from the point of view of the development of multilateral disarmament negotiations at the main forums of the disarmament apparatus (the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, the UN Disarmament Commission, the First Committee of the UN General Assembly and the review process of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons) the situation is rather dismal. Given the principle of consensus decision-making, including consensus decision-making on proposed agreements, which applies to all negotiation forums, with the exception of the First Committee and also given the lack of political will and unwillingness to reach a compromise in the results on the side of nuclear-weapon powers, the multilateral disarmament negotiations process of these bodies has stagnated for the past several years. At the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, which is the most important body with a mandate for negotiating disarmament agreements, all action has been blocked for the last twenty years. In contrast to other types of weapons of mass destruction, that is chemical and biological weapons, which are banned by relevant conventions in the long-term, there is no similar international legal instrument for the much more destructive nuclear weapons. Yet, when they discuss the issue of nuclear weapons and disarmament, all of the representatives of both nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear-weapon states simultaneously support the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free world and, in this context, they sometimes recall the “Prague speech” of US President Barack Obama in April 2009, in which he unequivocally supported this goal.

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Co dělat s Evropskou ústavní smlouvou?

Author(s): Petr Drulák,Jan Karlas / Language(s): Czech

Když občané Francie a Nizozemska odmítli Evropskou ústavní smlouvy, nejvyšší představitele států EU vyzvali k reflexi, která by měla přinést návrhy týkající se dalšího osudu tohoto dokumentu. Čeští politici tuto výzvu pochopili tak, že ústavní smlouva mizí z politické agendy a že se jí proto už nemusí zabývat. Opak je pravdou. ČR musí záhy k této otázce zaujmout jasnou pozici. Dlouhodobě platí, že řada členských států EU má zájem na institucionální reformě. Ač ústavní smlouva je v současné podobě mrtvá, její text představuje východisko pro další diskuse o institucionální reformě. Bezprostřední impuls této diskusi dávají začínající německé předsednictví EU a nadcházející prezidentské volby ve Francii.

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Collective Defence in the Age of Hybrid Warfare

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis,Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English

Over the past two and half years, ‘hybrid warfare’ has turned from an academic fad into an article of conventional wisdom. Russia’s March 2014 annexation of Crimea and aggression in the Donbas – and, even more importantly, the lessons collectively inferred from the conflict by US and European policy-makers – has fashioned a new lens through which security in Europe, particularly the Eastern flank of NATO, came to be imagined and pursued. This is despite the lack of either an agreed-upon definition or a consensus on the manifestations of hybrid warfare. This discussion paper provides a (critical) reflection on hybrid warfare – as both a concept and a practice – in the context of collective security in Europe, and discusses the role of the institutions and policies of NATO, the EU, and Member States. This introductory section presents an overview of the state of play. It outlines the core challenges of hybrid warfare for collective defense in the post-2014 context, especially regarding the Eastern flank of NATO, as well as the strategic assumptions that underlie them.

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Continuity and Change in the U.S. Foreign and Security Policy with the Accession of President Obama

Author(s): Nik Hynek / Language(s): English

The question of continuity and change in the U.S. Foreign/Security Policy (henceforth USFSP) after the accession of President Obama can be constructively studied from two complementary perspectives: the thematic perspective and the procedural perspective. This method determines the structure of this analysis. In the beginning, key issues of the USFSP in the context of the change of the American administration are examined. A part of the discussion of the transition from the Republican administration of George W. Bush to the Democratic administration of Barack Obama will be an attempt to follow the continuity and change in the key issues of the USFSP and the change in the prioritization of issues. For a comparison of the approaches of Bush and Obama, one needs to approach the topic indirectly due to the fact that Obama’s presidency is still in its early stages, which means that we still cannot completely evaluate the USFSP under the current American president. It is precisely the fact that it is impossible to compare eight years of the government of George W. Bush with approximately seven months of the Obama government that is the cause of the indirect approach of this evaluation. It will be based on a combination of extrapolation from existing but still scattered early signals and defining what can be regarded a success when considering the goals of the primary issues of the USFSP on the basis of Obama’s publically known positions. Subsequently, an evaluation of the preferred procedural means of reaching the set goals in the framework of the central issues of the USFSP will tie into the perspective related to changes in thematic priorities. The main finding of the first part will be that even though Obama is seen as the president who put an end to several trends that were introduced by Bush, such a conclusion must necessarily be rejected as reductive or even misleading. In contrast to this, in the second part, the analysis will point out several shifts associated with the change of the administration.

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Contrasting Approaches to the Crisis: New Threats and Opportunities within and beyond the EU

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): English

In early July, the second conference of the Czech-French Europe Dialogue series took place in Prague. Six Czech and French economists and political scientists met to discuss the impacts of and the responses to the ongoing global financial and economic crisis. The participants highlighted the following points: • Despite the global effects of the crisis, governments’ responses originated at the national level and did not lead to institutional changes at the international level. While the financial sector requires selective regulation, there is not enough will to strengthen the governance of the global economy. • The crisis has affected EU member states in different ways. Moreover, its perception and the measures undertaken vary among nations according to their historical experience. The neoliberal vogue in the mainstream discourse has ended and the continental economic models were rehabilitated. The crisis gives us an opportunity to find a European consensus on the balance between the importance of market incentives and institutional regulation. • National measures to mitigate the adverse social impacts of the crisis have suspended the Stability and Growth Pact and substantially increased the current public debt. Its repayment may take as long as two decades and it presents a major challenge for the social and intergenerational solidarity in the EU. • The declining dominance of the United States in the global economy and the new democratic administration present an opportunity to foster transatlantic relations. The EU should unite its voice to promoting necessary reforms of the international monetary system and finding new ways of financing the economic growth in order to overcome the growing imbalance between developed and emerging markets.

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Czech Strategic Partnerships: A Practice in Need of a Vision

Author(s): Michal Šimečka,Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

The concept of a strategic partnership is gaining prominence in Czech diplomatic practice, but its meaning and implications remain inadequately understood. The policy paper seeks to redress the situation by unpacking the concept and building a framework for understanding strategic partnerships in the Czech context. It argues that while it is not necessary to construct a rigorous definition, more coherence and clarity is needed for strategic partnerships to serve as a meaningful instrument of Czech foreign policy

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Czech-German Relations: A Dialogue in Place of Strategy, in Hope of Strategy and in Need of Strategy

Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English

The Czech-German Strategic Dialogue has been hailed as a significant upgrading of relations between the two countries. However, while it holds great potential, the dialogue mainly covers practical or tactical cooperation and is currently lacking in real strategic content. This deficit reflects a wider lack of strategic convergence between the partners and requires political, rather than bureaucratic action to address it. Doing so will require a larger shift in foreign policy thinking and action, particularly on the Czech side.

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Dilemata rozvojové politiky

Author(s): Ondřej Horký / Language(s): Czech

Dne 8. listopadu 2005 se konala v Praze konference „Mezi pragmatismem a ideály. Jakou úlohu mají normy při formulaci zahraniční politiky?“. Její třetí a poslední blok „Dilemata rozvojové politiky“ byl věnován zkušenostem tří velkých dárců: Německu, Kanadě a Evropské unii. Panelu, kterému předsedal náměstek ministra zahraničních věcí České republiky Tomáš Pojar, se zúčastnili Günther Mainhold ze Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik v Berlině, Yiaqadeesen Samy z Norman Paterson School of International Affairs v Ottawě a Geert Laporte z European Centre for Development Policy Management v Maastrichtu. Příspěvky diskutoval Petr Halaxa, bývalý vedoucí Rozvojového střediska Ústavu mezinárodních vztahů. Na základě rozporů či problémů, se kterými se jednotliví poskytovatelé rozvojové pomoci setkávají, zde formulujeme obecná dilemata rozvojové politiky. Ve srovnání se současnou vládní politikou zahraniční rozvojové spolupráce vyvodíme doporučení pro „znovuvynořujícího se dárce“, kterým je Česká republika.*

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Do Two Wrongs Make a Right? The Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria and the US Strike

Author(s): Veronika Bílková / Language(s): English

On Thursday 6 April 2017, the US carried out a missile strike in Syria. It did so in response to the chemical attack which had taken place two days earlier in the town of Khan Sheikhoun, in the rebel-controlled part of the Idlib province, killing 80 and seriously injuring more than 200 civilians. The chemical attack has been uniformly condemned. The US attack, on the contrary, has attracted not only criticism but also statements of support and of praise. This is surprising provided that the two attacks both constitute a clear violation of some of the most fundamental norms of the international legal order. And that the latter attack may potentially threaten the stability of this order, and the values it protects, not less than the former one.

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Does the Negotiated Convention on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Contradict the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

As regards nuclear disarmament negotiations, the year 2017 has been exception also far. The main reason for such praise is that this year, the historically unprecedented two-stage negotiations regarding the Convention on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons have begun at the UN conference in New York. The first round of the talks already took place on March 27–3, 2017, the second one began on June 15 and will finish on July 7, 2017.Moreover, in the first half of the year, the first meeting of the Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee for the 10th Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons took place in Vienna on May 2–12, which opened the Treaty’s review process. Within its framework, the Committee has scheduled another two meetings before the whole review process will reach its climax in 2020 with the 10th Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference. After the failure of the preliminary Review Conference in 2015 due to fact that it did not come to a consensus or an agreement on the final report, the following review process is of the utmost importance, especially in the context of the future negotiations about the Convention on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

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Egypt, a future gas supplier to the European Union?

Author(s): Jan Mazač,Lukáš Tichý / Language(s): English

The main objective of the external dimension of the EU energy policy in line with the Energy Union strategy is primarily to ensure energy security by diversifying external energy supplies, transport routes and suppliers, mainly in the gas domain. Egypt’s recent offshore and onshore gas discoveries increased its natural gas reserves estimate. Its natural gas production is thus expected to double in 2020 and transform the country back into a gas supplier in the eastern Mediterranean region. The European Union (EU) should thus strengthen its relations with Egypt to allow its gas production to reach European markets.

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Energetická politika USA a význam dodávek zkapalněného zemního plynu do EU

Author(s): Lukáš Tichý,Jan Mazač / Language(s): Czech

Nové metody těžby ropy a plynu z břidlic a velké zásoby těchto komodit v USA způsobily revoluci v americké energetické bezpečnosti. Ve spotřebě plynu jsou USA v současnosti plně nezávislé. V oblasti ropy se podíl importu v poslední dekádě výrazně snížil. Dodávky amerického zkapalněného plynu (LNG) z břidlic by měly přispět k posílení energetické bezpečnosti EU a snížení její závislosti na Rusku. Nemůžou ovšem zcela nahradit ruský plyn. Spojené státy by měly navyšovat svou exportní kapacitu a zároveň podporovat budování potřebné infrastruktury u svých odběratelů v zámoří. Evropská unie by měla dokončit plně liberalizovaný a vzájemně propojený trh s plynem, aby mohla efektivněji přijímat a využívat americký LNG.

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