ABM Defense & Prospects of a New Russia-US “Reset”
The Obama administration recently suggested concluding a legally binding agreement on transparency that would confirm that American BMD does not pose a threat to Russia’s deterrence forces, and also concluding a framework agreement on further cutting Russian and American nuclear arsenals. The USA may be interested in reducing the tensions with Russia over the missile defense with a view to break the deadlock on a wide complex of hard security and proliferation issues, including the hot problems of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe and Iran and the North Korean nuclear programs, and also to ensure Russia’s support in managing regional crises – these days, especially that in Syria. Moscow probably agrees that it should negotiate a legally binding agreement on transparency and confidence building measures with the USA. At the same time Russia continues in asking for legally binding guarantees that the US BMD is not aimed against its strategic forces as the sine qua none of any other talks and agreements on nuclear weapons with the US. The Kremlin also may propose some trilateral consultations between the USA, Russia, and Europe on BMD with a view to involve some European circles that are skeptical about the missile defense in the debate. In a wider geopolitical context, Russia’s policy towards the BMD issue results from Moscow’s perception of the US quest for a compromise on strategic problems as a weakness. The US quest for a compromise may and most probably is used by Moscow to question the reliability of the American alliance obligations. It cannot be ruled out that there are plans for a certain “big deal” between the two countries, at the possibility of which Moscow hints. In the context of this deal, Russia would consent to new negotiations on further reductions of strategic nuclear weapons in exchange for the USA consenting to limit its non-nuclear strategic systems, take into account the conventional arms in Europe, limit the US naval activity in the seas around Europe and accept future Russian proposals on European security aimed at enfeebling NATO.
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