Russia’s trade war against Ukraine: who is the winner? // Summary // Russian-Ukrainian trade: a history of menaces, pressure and sanctions // From pressure to embargo // Economic consequences // Energy diplomacy // Further Scenarios of the Trade War // Is there any alternative for Ukraine?
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PUBLIC POLICIES // Introduction of martial law in Ukraine: chances, challenges, threats // Statements on the introduction of martial law: a real threat or muscles-flexing? // Position of the parties // Strengthening of President’s power, restriction of citizen’s rights // If martial law “yes”, then Minsk “no” // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // The weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate: the causes and consequences // ENERGY POLICY // The future of Ukraine’s natural gas transmission system // Slowdown in energy market reform indicates its inefficiency // ‘Warlike’ rhetoric shall not effect constructive dialogue // Situation shall not be underestimated // Ukraine’s capacity vs. Gazprom’s economic calculations // Competitive gas market is Ukraine’s dire necessity // POLITICAL COMPETITION // Start of the new political season: «the war of all against all» // Towards «autocracy» // «President – «People’s Front» confrontation // Confrontation between new and old politicians
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PUBLIC POLICIES // Is Ukraine Ready to Combat Corruption in Exchange for IMF Assistance? // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Financial Police in Ukraine: Another Attempt to Reorganize State Fiscal Service of Ukraine // Pension reform from the IMF: unpopular steps for Ukrainian government // POLITICAL COMPETITION // The two poles of the Ukrainian opposition
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PUBLIC POLICIES: MODELS OF DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: COSTS OF DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT // POLITICAL COMPETITION: POSITIONS OF UKRAINIAN POLITICAL PARTIES REGARDING DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT
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Public Policies: Implementation of reforms in 2016: achievements and failures // Economic Analysis: Economic trends and forecasts for 2017 // Political Competition: The analysis of risks and opportunities for development of the political situation in 2017 // Foreign Policy: Outcomes of Ukraine’s foreign policy in 2016
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Public Policies: 1. Referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO // 2. Donbas blockade // Economic Analysis: Challenges and threats to be faced by SMEs in 2017 // Political Competition: Prospects for the establishment of the Liberal Forces’ Coalition
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Public Policies: Prospects for establishment of Anti-Corruption Court // Economic Analysis: Privatization in Ukraine: Problems and Prospects // Political Competition: High-profile criminal cases: fight against corruption or redivision of influence spheres?
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PUBLIC POLICIES // Attack on a think-tank: political order or excessive act? // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Results of the Groysman government’s work in 2016 // POLITICAL COMPETITION // Three scenarios for political developments in Ukraine
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS // Results of the year of the Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Land reform in Ukraine: problems and prospects // POLITICAL COMPETITION // OTG elections: results,tendencies and parliamentary perspectives of political parties
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS // Three years of Petro Poroshenko's presidency: interim results and future prospects // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Pension reform: challenges and prospects
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS // The first meeting of Petro Poroshenko and Donald Trump: achievements and miscalculations // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Budget Resolution 2018-2020 - the first step to medium-term budget planning // POLITICAL COMPETITION // Initiatives to "complete the anti-terrorist operation"
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS // Year of work of NAPC: results and challenges? // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Forecast until the end of 2017 // POLITICAL COMPETITION // New political season: waiting for the unknown
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS // HOW TO RETURN SECURITY ON THE STREETS OF UKRAINIAN CITIES // INTERNATIONAL SCANDAL AROUND LAW ON EDUCATION // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // NBU MONETARY POLICY: THE WAY TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OR TO STAGNATION? // POLITICAL COMPETITION // PROTESTS UNDER THE VERKHOVNA RADA: EVOLUTION AND FORECAST
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PUBLIC POLICIES // INTERNAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE: RESULTS OF 2017 AND FORECAST FOR 2018 // UKRAINE’S FOREIGN POLICY: 2017 RESULTS AND FORECAST FOR 2018 // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE 2017: ACHIEVEMENTS, FAILURES, PROSPECTS
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GOVERNMENT DECISIONS NEW ELECTORAL LEGISLATION AS A FORGOTTEN REFORM IN UKRAINE // UN PEACEKEEPING MISSION IN DONBASS: WHAT IS THE CHANCE FOR SUCCESS? // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // THE FIFTH TRANCH OF THE IMF FOR UKRAINE: REFORMS OR STAGNATION? // POLITICAL COMPETITION // NEW POLITICAL ALLIANCES OR HOW TO AGREE WITH EVERYONE, NOT TRUSTING ANYONE
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PUBLIC POLICIES // The law on “Reintegration of Donbas”: political declaration or restoration of sovereignty? // State bureau of investigations: will it be possible to create an independent and transparent authority? // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS // Hryvnia 2018: Past and Future Factors of Influence
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Two years have passed since the Minsk agreements were approved. The agreements were endorsed by the UN Security Council Resolution 2202 on February 17, 2015 as a tool of conflict resolution in eastern Ukraine. Minsk-2 contributed to de-escalation of the conflict and suspension of full-scale fighting, but not to the conflict settlement. If the Minsk agreements remain as a “no-alternative-mechanism” for conflict settlement in the east of our country, their implementation will require new, additional instruments which are prescribed by the Minsk agreements, but do not contradict to them. The introductionof the International Interim Administration (IIA) under the UN auspices in the non-controlled territories can be one of such innovative tools for the conflict settlement in Donbas. IIA can become acceptable to all conflict parties and a ‘model’ of the Minsk agreements implementation and restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty over certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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The Minsk agreements contributed to the transformation of the war in eastern Ukraine into a conflict of low intensity but did not lead to the restoration of peace, or even a sustainable truce. Within the existing negotiation processeither the Trilateral Contact Group or the “Normandy Four” format – the parties failed to propose an effective way to restore peace and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Additionally, the logic of the negotiation process set by the Minsk agreements has a very limited capacity to achieve results that are in the interests of our country. Currently, international participation in the conflict settlement is limited to the monitoring of the conflict and the facilitation of OSCE contact group activities. Meanwhile, some forms of international engagement that are officially requested by Ukraine cannot be used in the present situation and the state of conflict, and other forms are just ignored. This research is intended to outline the existing forms and means of international peacekeeping activities, explain their compliance with the existing settlement process and propose a number of ideas to enhance the use of diplomatic tools to resolve conflict in accordance with the interests of Ukraine.
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The document “Mapping of dialogue initiatives in Ukraine” has been prepared within the “Initiating the Participatory National Dialogue in Ukraine” project in Ukraine and implemented by the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) with the financial support of the Matra social transformation program (government of the Netherlands). While preparing this document, experts aimed at gathering, describing and analyzing existing initiatives designed to hold a dialogue between social groups or communities that have different views on the conflict in Ukraine. Dialogue initiatives between residents of different regions of the country, displaced persons and locals, enforcement authorities and people affected by their actions are among them. The fact that these projects are in different stages of implementation should be considered. Some of them have already been completed, others were implemented as pilot projects, whereas a number of them are still at the development stage or need support.
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