Turkish Foreign Policy in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Eastern Mediterranean Developments
Turkish Foreign Policy in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Eastern Mediterranean Developments

Author(s): Ayan Pelin Musil
Subject(s): International relations/trade
Published by: Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Keywords: foreign policy
Summary/Abstract: While the Czech Republic primarily views Türkiye through thelens of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Türkiye’s role as a strategicswing state extends significantly into the Eastern Mediterranean.Türkiye’s efforts to act more independently and balancerelationships in a transactional way are putting pressure on NATOunity, complicating the collective defence planning upon whichCzech security relies. A central driver of this divergence is theunresolved Cyprus dispute, which earlier stalled Türkiye’s EUaccession, fuelled its exclusion from regional energy frameworkslike the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, and driven its shifttoward an assertive, foreign policy.A rare diplomatic opportunity now appears to have openedto resolve the Cyprus dispute and bring Türkiye back into closeralignment with the West. This opportunity is driven by theOctober 2025 election of Tufan Erhürman, a pro-reunificationcandidate in Northern Cyprus, whose victory signals a strong localmandate for resuming federal negotiations, thereby politicallyweakening Türkiye’s push for a two-state solution. Furthermore,the recent military escalation involving Iran has transformedCyprus from a frozen conflict into an immediate security liability,increasing the risk of intra-alliance friction. This urgencyis complemented by an ongoing diplomatic dialogue betweenGreece and Türkiye, which provides calmer bilateral relationsfor renewed peace initiatives.This policy paper argues that Prague should view the Cyprusdispute not as an isolated or peripheral issue, but as a corecomponent of the broader contest for Türkiye’s geopoliticalalignment. It is in the interest of the Czech Republic to supporta renewed, impartial diplomatic push by the EU and the UN forre-opening the negotiations on the reunification of the island.By using integration into the Eastern Mediterranean energyarchitecture as a strategic tool, the EU can help overcome theconstraints of Ankara’s domestic authoritarianism, stabiliseEurope’s southeastern flank, and pull Türkiye away from itsdependence on Russia.

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