Ukrajina v předvečer summitu Východního partnerství ve Vilniusu
Ukraine on the eve of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius

Author(s): Michal Lebduška
Subject(s): International relations/trade, Post-Communist Transformation
Published by: AMO – Asociace pro mezinárodní otázky
Keywords: Ukraine in Eastern Partnership; Aleksander Kwaśniewski; Yulia Tymoshenko;
Summary/Abstract: Given that both the EU and Ukraine are interested in signing the agreement at the Vilnius summit, and its largely geopolitical nature, where a decision is visibly being made between two extreme options, its further postponement will be a clear loss for both sides. For now, it seems that the key moment will be the situation surrounding Yulia Tymoshenko, without whose release for treatment in Germany, some EU states will probably block the signing of the agreement. At this moment, the decisive word is held by the monitoring mission of the former President of the European Parliament, Pat Cox, and the former President of Poland, Aleksander Kwaśniewski, whose mandate has been extended until the summit itself. This indicates that a decision will probably be made in the last days before the summit, and it is likely that, given the agreement of Ukrainian political parties on the necessity of association, all problems will eventually be resolved. The biggest unknown is probably Russia's position in the event of signing the agreement, which could use its position to increase economic pressure on Ukraine, and a conflict over natural gas similar to that of early 2009 can be expected in the short term.

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