Population Aging and Its Impact on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence From the Post-Transition European Union Countries
Population Aging and Its Impact on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence From the Post-Transition European Union Countries

Author(s): Ivana Barković Bojanić, Đula Borozan, Manuel García-Goñi
Subject(s): Energy and Environmental Studies, Applied Geography, Demography and human biology, Gerontology, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Sveučilište Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku, Ekonomski fakultet u Osijeku
Keywords: older population; climate change; Environmental Kuznets Curve; augmented mean group method;
Summary/Abstract: This chapter investigates the short-run causal relationships and the long-run associations between CO2 emissions and the share of the population aged 65 and older in post-transition European Union (EU) countries, while controlling for key economic and energy-related factors. Using panel Granger causality tests and augmented mean-group estimations, both within and outside the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, the results reveal no evidence of short-run causality and no statistically significant long-run effects of population aging on CO2 emissions. These findings suggest that demographic aging does not directly drive environmental outcomes in the countries examined. Per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) exhibits a negative but statistically insignificant association with emissions; however, when interacted with the older population share, GDP has a negative and statistically significant effect, indicating that higher levels of economic development may contribute to lower emissions once demographic structure is considered. In addition, recession periods are found to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, reflecting contractions in economic activity and energy demand during downturns. Across all model specifications, final energy consumption emerges as the most robust determinant of emissions, with a positive, statistically significant effect and bidirectional causality with CO2 emissions.

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