Short-Term Forecasts of Price Changes of Goods in Bulgaria After the Conversion to Euro, January 1st 2026
Short-Term Forecasts of Price Changes of Goods in Bulgaria After the Conversion to Euro, January 1st 2026

Author(s): Martina Tinkova
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Economic policy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Financial Markets, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: euro adoption; consumer price inflation; Bulgaria; inflation forecasting
Summary/Abstract: This report aims to examine the short-term forecasts of price changes in Bulgaria following its adoption of the Euro on 1 January 2026. It examines the likely short-term inflationary effects that accompany currency transition by analyzing previous data, cross-country experiences and econometric forecasting models. The analysis will include changes in Bulgaria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The main data sources used in this report will be extracted from Eurostat, as well as the Bulgarian National Statistics Institute. The four main categories we are going to explore are Food and non-alcoholic beverages; Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics; Clothing and footwear and Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. A comparison with Croatia will be made in order to gain insight as to what they experienced when going through the euro changeover in 2023.

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