ENTROPY AND STRATEGIC DECLINE: A SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS OF EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY
ENTROPY AND STRATEGIC DECLINE: A SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS OF EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

Author(s): Alexandra-Maria GAVRILĂ
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Geopolitics
Published by: Carol I National Defence University Publishing House
Keywords: Social Entropy Theory; regional security; Euro-Atlantic; geopolitical forecasting; systemic dissonance.
Summary/Abstract: This article examines the relevance and analytical utility of Social Entropy Theory in the study of regional stability and strategic dynamics within the Euro-Atlantic space. Rooted in systems theory and informed by the work of Kenneth D. Bailey, Social Entropy Theory conceptualizes society as a complex system subject to increasing disorder when cohesion, coordination, and adaptive capacity deteriorate. Applied to the contemporary Euro-Atlantic geopolitical environment, this framework allows for a critical reassessment of regional instability not merely as a response to external threats, but as a manifestation of internal systemic dissonance. Entropic indicators – such as normative fragmentation, geopolitical divergence, and informational overload – signal a transition from systemic equilibrium toward a far-from-equilibrium state. Such conditions undermine the strategic coherence of the Euro-Atlantic region, creating vulnerabilities that traditional risk analyses often overlook. By connecting entropy-sensitive dynamics with broader trends in strategic forecasting and regional security culture, the study positions Social Entropy Theory as a valuable heuristic tool in anticipating strategic fatigue, navigating uncertainty, and reframing regional resilience in the 21st century.

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