The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Country Indebtedness
The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Country Indebtedness

Author(s): Andrea Hrubšova, Sara Smolkova
Subject(s): Social Sciences
Published by: Udruženje ekonomista i menadžera Balkana
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; Gross government debt; Public debt; Economic stability; Panel data analysis; Fixed effects model
Summary/Abstract: This research investigates the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on public debt levels in participating countries. Using a panel dataset covering 173 countries across various income groups and regions, we apply quantitative analysis to assess whether BRI involvement is associated with increased sovereign indebtedness. The study incorporates macroeconomic and institutional variables to capture both structural and policy-related dynamics. Our findings suggest nuanced relationships between BRI participation and debt outcomes, highlighting the importance of governance quality, economic structure, and financing terms. The results contribute to the literature on debt sustainability in the context of global infrastructure initiatives and offer evidence-based insights for policymakers considering external development financing.

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