THE THUCYDIDES TRAP IN THE 21ST CENTURY: THE WEST AND CHINA
THE THUCYDIDES TRAP IN THE 21ST CENTURY: THE WEST AND CHINA

Author(s): Adrian Toma
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Security and defense, Military policy
Published by: Editura Universităţii Vasile Goldiş
Keywords: Hegemony; strategic competition,GDP; military capability; Free World; BRICS; deterrence; demographic reversal; vulnerabilities; protectionism; near-shoring; non-aligned states
Summary/Abstract: Amid the gradual erosion of Western economic and military supremacy, a shift that risks exposing the systemic vulnerabilities of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party finds itself unable to deliver the promised transition to consumer-driven prosperity without confronting the hegemony of the United States and its allies, as well as the international security architecture established post–World War II and recalibrated during the Cold War. The deceleration of global market expansion, the partial decoupling of Western economies from the so-called “world’s factory,” the reversal of favourable demographic trends in developed nations, and the intensification of protectionist trade policies collectively constrain Beijing’s capacity for sustained economic growth absent commercial, cultural, societal, and potentially military confrontation with the West.The anticipated trajectory of this clash may itself precipitate its onset, particularly if either party concludes that it cannot secure a net strategic advantage due to the deterrent capabilities of the opposing bloc. Current indicators suggest that neither side is likely to attain decisive supremacy without the backing of a substantial coalition of major and middle powers. In this context, the respective vulnerabilities and strengths of the Free World and of alternative political, economic, and military alliances, such as BRICS, spearheaded by China, assume critical importance. These attributes also influence the appeal of each block to non-aligned states, whose support or abstention may prove pivotal across global markets and strategic theatres.Technological, demographic, and soft power shifts over the past decade have reconfigured the influence of both the United States and China in domains once considered bastions of their respective power: entertainment, multimedia, artificial intelligence, industrial output, population governance, and GDP growth. The mutual uncertainty regarding dominance inthese key arenas, each capable of conferring hegemony without direct conflict, has heightened the propensity for an early, possibly military, resolution to the Sino-American rivalry.

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