АСИМЕТРИЧНИ ИКОНОМИЧЕСКИ ЕФЕКТИ ВЪРХУ БЪЛГАРСКОТО ЗЕМЕДЕЛИЕ ОТ ЧЛЕНСТВОТО В ЕС
ASYMMETRIC ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON BULGARIAN AGRICULTURE FROM EU MEMBERSHIP

Author(s): Gueorgui Guerov, Vanya Georgieva, Nadezhda Blagoeva
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Agriculture
Published by: Икономически университет - Варна
Keywords: agriculture; European Union; agricultural exports; rural population; social sustainability
Summary/Abstract: This paper analyzes the economic and social effects of Bulgaria’s EU membership on the structure of its agricultural sector. The study is based on official data from FAOSTAT and the World Bank for the period 2007–2022 and applies normalized statistical techniques, including Z-transformation, moving averages, correlation, and multiple regression analysis. Four regression models assess the impact of crop and livestock production on rural population dynamics and agricultural exports. The findings reveal a strong production and export specialization favoring large-scale grain cultivation at the expense of social sustainability. While livestock sectors contribute less to exports, they play a vital role in supporting rural demographic stability. The results highlight the need for a more balanced agricultural policy focused on both economic efficiency and social cohesion.

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