Фрагментация или интеграция – двустранните сили, оформящи бъдещето на Европейския съюз
Fragmentation or Integration – the Two-Sided Forces shape the Future of the European Union

Author(s): Chavdar Raev
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, Business Economy / Management, Governance, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Socio-Economic Research, Asylum, Refugees, Migration as Policy-fields
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: fragmentation; integration; nationalism; economic cooperation; migration
Summary/Abstract: The European Union (EU) stands at a crossroads, shaped by opposing forces of fragmentation and integration that will determine its future development. The report examines the dynamics between these two-sided forces, which simultaneously threaten to tear the Union apart or push it towards deeper unification. Fragmentation, driven by growing nationalism, economic divergence and political discontent, is challenging the cohesion of the EU, as seen in the rise of populist movements and the different responses to crises such as migration and the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, integration efforts, including economic cooperation, political unification and security cooperation, reveal a countervailing force aimed at strengthening the Union. The article analyses key areas where these forces are most pronounced, including economic policy, security and political governance, highlighting the complex interplay that influences policy-making and the EU’s institutional framework. Through case studies and policy actions, the paper argues that the near future of the EU is likely to be shaped by a delicate balance between fragmentation and integration, where strategic choices made in response to current challenges will determine whether the EU emerges as a more cohesive organisation or faces increasing division. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on the evolution of supranational organisations in an increasingly polarised global landscape.

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